Camp Far West Hydroelectric Project Relicensing Water Operations Model FERC Project No. 2997 July 16, 2018
Overview Project and South Sutter Water District overview Operations model Overview Model Updates Hydrology Operations Validation 2
Bear River Watershed Drains Western Slope of Sierra Nevada mountains Tributary of the Feather River 3
Bear River Watershed Bear River inflow to Camp Far West is regulated upstream and includes abandoned hydropower flow imported from the Yuba River Upstream projects include Nevada ID s Yuba-Bear Project and PG&E s Drum- Spaulding Project, collectively the YB-DS projects 4
Camp Far West & South Sutter Water District Camp Far West Reservoir Hydroelectric project South Sutter Water District (SSWD) 5
Camp Far West Reservoir & SSWD Rock Creek Spillway Non-project Diversion Dam Dam Powerhouse Bear River 6
Non-project Diversion Dam & Canals North Canal to CFWID Non-project Diversion Dam Fish Release Main Canal South Canal to CFWID splits from Main Canal ~ 3/4 mile down-canal 7
Camp Far West Dam Built 1964 Capacity of 104,600 acre-feet when constructed Current capacity of 93,740 acre-feet Spillway crest at elevation 300 feet Three outlets Spillway Low-level outlet (bypass) Intake at 175 feet Penstock Intake at 197 feet 8
Camp Far West Hydroelectric Project Original license issued 1981 Operations began 1985 Installed capacity = 6.8 megawatts Turbine capacity = 750 cfs Historically operated at less than capacity 9
South Sutter Water District District formed 1954 Approximately 66,000 acres Prior to development of surface water supply farmers within the area relied solely on groundwater Groundwater elevation declines Surface water supplies account for ~1/3 of crop requirement Rice, orchards, pasture, row and field crops 10
Goals for Operations Model Can be used to simulate current and potential future operations Opportunity to review and conclude model is adequate Agree to use of Ops model in relicensing 11
Model Updates Implemented a user-defined down-ramping rate restriction Function of previous day release Added estimated Dry Creek inflows Revised the import-estimate forecast based on the selected upstream operation/inflow scenario Added a calculation for peak and off-peak power generation Implemented June 1 SSWD allocation adjustment Output to DSS worksheet 12
Camp Far West Operations Model 39-year simulation period on a daily time-step Water year (WY) 1976 through 2014 Microsoft Excel spreadsheet Boundaries are: Camp Far West Reservoir Bear River at confluence with Feather River 13
Operations Model Schematic 14
Inflow to Camp Far West Upstream Yuba-Bear/Drum-Spaulding operations influence inflow to Camp Far West Reservoir Three Inflow Scenarios 1) Historical Inflow - Based on reservoir mass balance of Storage and Outflow 2) Near-Term Condition - Upstream operations under future FERC license 3) Future Condition - Future upstream demands and future upstream FERC license 15
1,200,000 Near-Term Condition Inflow vs Historical Inflow 1,000,000 800,000 Acre-Feet 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Historical Inflow Near-Term Condition 16
1,200,000 Future Condition Inflow vs Historical Inflow 1,000,000 800,000 Acre-Feet 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Historical Inflow Future Condition 17
1,200,000 Unimpaired Bear River Developed by HDR for specific locations in the watershed Reservoir Inflow 1,000,000 800,000 Acre-Feet 600,000 400,000 Avg: 306,000 Acre-feet 200,000 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 18
Average Annual Inflow Volumes Historical: 380,000 acre-feet Near-Term: 321,000 acre-feet Future: 292,000 acre-feet Unimpaired: 306,000 acre-feet 19
Regulatory Requirements Minimum bypass requirements in water right licenses and Article 29 of existing FERC license April 1 June 30 = minimum of 25 cfs or inflow All other times = minimum of 10 cfs or inflow Same every year; not based on hydrologic conditions or water year type Bay-Delta Settlement Agreement No required flood control space in Camp Far West 20
Bay-Delta Settlement Agreement 1995 SWRCB Water Quality Control Plan SSWD, CFWID and DWR entered February 2000 Settlement Agreement 4,400 acre-feet in Dry and Critical Years Defined by Sacramento Valley WY Hydrologic Classification (40-30-30 Index) 21
Irrigation Operations Project is operated for irrigation SSWD Board of Director s allocates available surface water each spring SSWD irrigation season typically April 15 Oct 15 22
Agricultural Water Demands Agreement with Camp Far West Irrigation District (CFWID) CFWID receives 13,000 acre-feet SSWD = max of 110,000 acre-feet annually Deliveries based on available water supply Demand patterns determined based on review of historical diversions 23
Annual SSWD Diversions 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Acre-Feet Avg: 92,000 Acre-feet 24
Allocation Procedure Allocation procedure uses forecasted Available Water Supply and allocates water in the following priority 1) Minimum flow 2) BDSA flow 3) Camp Far West Irrigation District demands 4) South Sutter Water District demands Available Water Supply = CFW storage + forecasted inflow Determined in April for mid-april through mid-october irrigation season Annual operations with no carryover storage target 25
Inflow Forecast Procedure Forecast inflow broken into two components Bear River Supply Import Estimate from Yuba River 26
Bear River Supply Volumetric regressions between B120 Yuba at Smartsville & calculated unimpaired Bear River 300,000 Unimpaired Bear (acre-feet) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 y = 0.0605x - 1430.4 R² = 0.7467 y = 0.1219x - 46165 R² = 0.8363 0 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 1,600,000 1,700,000 1,800,000 1,900,000 2,000,000 2,100,000 2,200,000 2,300,000 2,400,000 2,500,000 2,600,000 <- Dry : Non-Dry -> Yuba Forecast (acre-feet) Non-Dry Years Dry Years 27
Historical Yuba Imports Net imports to Bear River estimated as difference between Drum Canal (USGS 11414190) Bear River Canal (USGS 11422000) Used to develop relationship between forecasted Yuba supply and imports to Bear River 28
Yuba River Supply for Import Calculate Remaining Yuba Remaining Yuba = B120 Forecasted Yuba Available Upstream Reservoir Capacity Demand from YB-DS Upstream Reservoirs Jackson Meadows, Bowman, Fordyce, Spaulding and Rollins Reservoir capacity and demand vary based on inflow alternative 29
Forecast of Yuba Imports 300,000 250,000 1984 1983 Imports to Bear (AF) 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2007 1994 1990 1987 1976 2001 1992 1996 2003 2000 2004 2005 2002 1991 2008 1979 1985 1981 1989 1997 1999 2006 1978 1980 1993 1986 1998 1982 1995 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 1,600,000 1,700,000 1,800,000 1,900,000 2,000,000 2,100,000 Historical Data Remaining Yuba (AF) Import Function 30
Inflow Forecast Summary Components of forecast inflow: Bear River Supply Regression with B120 for Yuba River Import Estimate from Yuba River Function based on Remaining Yuba supply Function changes for historical, near-term, and future conditions Inflow forecast = Bear River Supply + Import Estimate 31
Inflow Forecast Summary 450,000 400,000 350,000 Forecasted Inflow (acre-feet) 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Bear River Supply Import Estimate 32
Annual Irrigation Allocation Available Water Supply CFW storage + forecast inflow Required releases Irrigation demands AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP = (ssssssssssssss+ffffffffffffffff iiiiiiiiiiii rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr) dddddddddddd 33
June 1 st Allocation Update SSWD Allocation is re-evaluated on June 1 Cumulative inflow from April 1 to May 31 vs. forecasted Bear River impaired inflow Updated Available Water Supply CFW storage + forecasted remaining inflow - remaining demands and required releases Increase / Decrease Allocation Fixed Increase: 15% Fixed Decrease: -5% 34
Demand Patterns Continuous precipitation records compiled for SSWD Precipitation for the months preceding the irrigation season (Jan-April) summed Pre-irrigation season precipitation amount broken into percentiles Historical deliveries averaged over each precipitation percentile Average delivery for each percentile scaled to sum to unity MRV SEA SSWD A SSWD South Sutter Water District A Intersection Point MRV Marysville FOL Folsom SEA Sacramento Executive Airport Segment Distance (MI) MRV FOL 39 FOL SEA 22.5 SEA MRV 44 A SEA 13.5 SSWD MRV 11.7 FOL 35
Demand Patterns Annual variability WY type is not a good predictor Used accumulated precip January through April Percent Total Demand 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Avg 0%-20% 20%-40% 40%-60% 60%-80% 80%-100% 36
Camp Far West Evaporation Based on historical evaporation rates at Folsom Reservoir Monthly Evaporation (inches) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 37
Hydropower Generation Hydropower generation is incidental to water supply The turbine at Camp Far West Powerhouse is subject to the following constraints: Physical turbine capacity of 750 cfs Minimum Water Surface Elevation (WSE) of 236 ft Minimum turbine flow as a function of WSE WSE above 278 ft, minimum turbine flow is 300 cfs WSE between 278 and 236 ft, minimum turbine flow is 130 cfs User-specified ramp down rate applied to turbine and low-level outlet 38
Hydropower Parameters Net head = outlet elevation - tailwater elevation Discharge Turbine efficiency 148 Tailwater Elevation 147 Water Surface Elevation (ft) 146 145 144 143 142 141 140 139 0 100 200 300 400 500 Turbine Flow (cfs) 600 700 800 900 39
Turbine Efficiency Curves based on Turbine-Pro output compiled by Mead and Hunt Reduction of 2% applied to efficiency for model calibration 100% 90% 80% 70% Turbine Efficiency 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Turbine Flow Rate (cfs) 69-82 ft) 82-104 ft 104-125 ft 125-146 ft 146-158 ft 158-165 ft 40
Lower Bear River Ops model simulates Bear River from the diversion dam to confluence with Feather River Accretion from diversion dam to Wheatland gage Calculated average monthly accretions Dry Creek Inflows 8 7 Net Accretion/Depletion (cfs) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 41
Model Validation Validation run: historical calculated inflow Include past water transfers from Camp Far West Historical storage adjusted to 2008 bathymetry for comparison with simulated storage Validation period from WY 1996-2014 Compare historical, observed data with model results Camp Far West storage Camp Far West release Energy generation Main Canal diversions Bear River flow 42
Camp Far West Storage 120,000 100,000 80,000 Acre-Feet 60,000 40,000 20,000 120,000 0 10/1/1995 10/1/1996 10/1/1997 10/1/1998 10/1/1999 10/1/2000 10/1/2001 10/1/2002 10/1/2003 10/1/2004 100,000 80,000 Acre-Feet 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 10/1/2005 10/1/2006 10/1/2007 10/1/2008 10/1/2009 10/1/2010 10/1/2011 10/1/2012 10/1/2013 Model Historical 43
Total Camp Far West Release 14,000 12,000 Acre-Feet 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 10/1/1995 10/1/1996 10/1/1997 10/1/1998 10/1/1999 10/1/2000 10/1/2001 10/1/2002 10/1/2003 10/1/2004 14,000 12,000 Acre-Feet 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 10/1/2005 10/1/2006 10/1/2007 10/1/2008 10/1/2009 10/1/2010 10/1/2011 10/1/2012 10/1/2013 Model Historical 44
Energy Generation 6,000 5,000 MWh 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 10/1/1995 10/1/1996 10/1/1997 10/1/1998 10/1/1999 10/1/2000 10/1/2001 10/1/2002 10/1/2003 6,000 5,000 MWh 4,000 3,000 Model Historical 2,000 1,000 0 10/1/2005 10/1/2006 10/1/2007 10/1/2008 10/1/2009 10/1/2010 10/1/2011 10/1/2012 10/1/2013 Model Historical 45
Main Canal Delivery 1,000 900 800 Acre-Feet 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10/1/1995 10/1/1996 10/1/1997 10/1/1998 10/1/1999 10/1/2000 10/1/2001 10/1/2002 10/1/2003 10/1/2004 1,000 900 800 Acre-Feet 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10/1/2005 10/1/2006 10/1/2007 10/1/2008 10/1/2009 10/1/2010 10/1/2011 10/1/2012 10/1/2013 Model Historical 46
Bear River Flow at Wheatland 4,000 3,500 3,000 cfs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 10/1/1995 10/1/1996 10/1/1997 10/1/1998 10/1/1999 10/1/2000 10/1/2001 10/1/2002 10/1/2003 10/1/2004 4,000 3,500 3,000 cfs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 10/1/2005 10/1/2006 10/1/2007 10/1/2008 10/1/2009 10/1/2010 10/1/2011 10/1/2012 10/1/2013 Model Historical 47
Model User Inputs Inflow Alternatives Historical Near-Term Condition Future Condition User Defined Min Flows Current minimum instream flows Specify instream flow by WY-Type in half month increments 48
YB-DS WY Type Method Water year unimpaired runoff of Yuba River at Smartsville DWR Bulletin 120 Initial WY type in February Updated March, April, and May May WY type applies until February of following year 49
WY Type Determination Upstream Yuba Bear Drum Spaulding WY type system applied to this model B120 Forecasted Unimpaired Yuba River Runoff or Full Natural Flow Water-Year Type (1,000 acre-feet) Less or equal to 900 1 Critically Dry 901 to 1,460 Dry 1,461 to 2,190 Below Normal 2,191 to 3,240 Above Normal Greater than 3,240 Wet 50
Camp Far West Hydroelectric Project Relicensing Water Operations Model FERC Project No. 2997 July 16, 2018