Global Grains R&D Opportunities for Australian Growers Dr. Siang Hee, Tan Executive Director, CropLife Asia 27 th July 2015 Grand Hyatt, Melbourne
Agenda Australian Exports and a Growing Market - ASIA Australian Grains Produc;on, Forecast and Exports Canola in Australia a Compara;ve Discussion What s for the Future?
Alastair James, Policy Manager AgChem Regulation and Stewardship Minor Use
Exports & Asia: Growing Demands MIDDLE CLASS POPULATION IN ASIA BY 2020 ASIA 50% of world s middle class population SOUTH EAST ASIA More than DOUBLE to 400 million CHINA 80 million in 2010 208 million in 2020 Sources: National Australia Bank Limited. Australia-China Trade Report Agribusiness Focus. 22 April, 2015. Retrieved from http://business.nab.com.au/australia-china-trade-report-agribusiness-10503/ Nielsen. (2014). ASEAN 2015. DBS Bank. (2011). Imagining Asia 2020. McKinsey. (2013). Mapping China s Middle Class. Retrieved from http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/consumer_and_retail/mapping_chinas_middle_class
Exports & Asia: Growing Demands A Growing Middle Class suggests Ø Rising disposable income Ø Increasingly urban preferences By 2020, Chinese consumers would have increased spending on food to US$1.48 trillion Asia s growing middle class is stimulating demand for grains, especially wheat-based foods. The increase in demand is a consequence of changes in the tastes and diets of this segment of the Asian economy and marks a boon for wheat exporters such as Australia and the United States. VOA CAKES PIZZA PASTA BREAD Sources: Nielsen. (2014). ASEAN 2015. DBS Bank. (2011). Imagining Asia 2020. Voice of America. Asia s Middle Class Changes Demand for Wheat Grain Exporter. 31 March, 2015.
Australian Exports Australia s Main Agricultural Exports to Asia Dairy Meat Cereal Horticulture Sources: Australian Farm Institute. Australian Agricultural Trade in the Asian Century. Retrieved from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/sitecollectiondocuments/abares/outlook/2013/presentations/day2/mick-keogh-markets-and-emerging-opportunities.pdf Grain Trade Australia. Annual Report 2013/2014.
Growing Trends and Potential Development Beyond 2015? Australia is China s 3 rd largest source of agricultural imports Some notable increases in China grain demands China Barley Consumption grew by x2.5 while Barley Imports increased by x3.15 from 2011 to 2014 China Sorghum Consumption grew by x5.18 while Sorghum Imports increased by x107.14 between 2011 to 2015 (from 84,000MT to 9,000,000 MT) Source: United States Department of Agriculture. (2015). Grain: World Markets and Trade. Retrieved from https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf on 2 July, 2015.
Ag Value /worker Vs Ag % GDP US$ 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 476 495 527 688 876 1,018 1,166 9,674 27,240 36,625 46,045 63,269 66,236 49,723 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 % GDP Agriculture $ added/ worker % GDP 1.Agriculture value added per worker is a measure of agricultural productivity. Value added in agriculture measures the output of the agricultural sector 2. Agriculture (% GDP) includes forestry, hunting, and fishing, as well as cultivation of crops and livestock production. Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/nv.agr.totl.zs
Australian Canola Production and Export Year 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16(f) Export (to World) ( 000 MT) 1067 1187 1471 2323 3488 3194 2458 2180 ( 000 MT) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Australian Canola Produc;on (1990-2014) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Canola Export by Des9na9on ( 000 MT) 2013/14 2012/13 2011/12 2009/10 Europe 1493 1893 2023 315 China 947 383 0 0 Pakistan 214 552 134 553 Japan 179 112 74 214 Bangladesh 0 104 15 76 Sources: ABARES, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Oilseed Federation Others 361 444 51 80
Canola Yield Comparison Es9mated % of HT and Conven9onal Canola in Canada 2.5 2 Canola Yield in Australia, Canada and US 100 80 60 40 20 1.5 1 0.5 0 Roundup Ready (transgenic; herbicide tolerant) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Liberty (transgenic; herbicide tolerant) Clearfield (not trangenic; herbicide tolerant) Conven;onal 0 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Canada US Australia Sources: Statistics Canada, Canola Council of Canada, USDA, ABARES, Australian Oilseed Federation
If world were to produce 2.5 times of current food, this is how the contributors will be
The Potential of Biotechnology Resistance to diseases and pests Higher profitability More nutri;ous plants USES OF BIO-TECH CROPS Beher produc;on effec;veness Resistance to cri;cal climate condi;ons FOOD FORAGE BIOFUEL Resistance to crop protec;on products
Yield of selected crops (AUS vs US) Phenotype Pre-1990s 12 10 Single-cross hybrids with biotech traits US Maize Phenotype 8 Single-cross hybrids Genotype 1990s-2000s MT/HA 6 AUS Maize Phenotype Genotype 4 2 US Barley US Sorghum US Wheat AUS Sorghum AUS Wheat AUS Barley US Canola AUS Canola Today 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Sources: FAOSTAT, Index Mundi, DuPont Pioneer, USDA, ABARE, Australian Bureau of Statistics
Quan;ty (1000 MT) UKRAINE MAIZE MARKET 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Ukraine Corn Produc9on, Export and Harvest from 1987-2014 Year Produc;on Exports Area Harvested 6000 4000 2000 0 Area Harvested (1000 HA) 5 th Largest Producer Source: Index Mundi. (2015).Ukraine Corn Exports by Year [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=ua&commodity=corn&graph=exports Index Mundi. (2015). Ukraine Corn Area Harvested by Year [Data File]. Retrieved from http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=ua&commodity=corn&graph=area-harvested Index Mundi. (2015). Ukraine Corn Production by Year [Data File]. Retrieved from http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=ua&commodity=corn&graph=production
Leveraging on Plant Biotech Crops to Enhance Agriculture Competitiveness License to operate under smart regulations (Science and evidencebased regulations) and social responsibility will allow a sustainable approach to food security. GM Insect Resistance technology: improved profits & environment gains. GM Herbicide Tolerant technology: combination of direct benefits (mostly cost reductions) & facilitation of changes in farming systems (no till & use of broad spectrum products) plus major GHG emission gains Combination of additional farm income, improved environment, higher production and greater production security = improved sustainability of global agriculture
Thank you.