Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2013 Simon Moakes 1, Nic Lampkin 2 and Neil Pearson 1 1 Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University 2 Organic Research Centre, Newbury March 2014
Published by Organic Centre Wales P: Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Gogerddan Campus, Aberystwyth University, Ceredigion, SY23 3EB, UK T: +44 (0)1970 622248 E: organic@aber.ac.uk W: http://www.organiccentrewales.org.uk/ Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 ii Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Acknowledgements We are very grateful to the many people who have assisted us in making this report possible, in particular: Welsh Government funding to undertake this survey. All the producers who participated in the survey we are aware how much the organic sector is over-surveyed and therefore we hope that this report, and any actions that stem from it, will go some way to making your time input worthwhile! The Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University staff who helped with the phone interviews and collating the survey responses: Tegid Roberts, Rowland Davies, Nick Reeves, Ian Williams, Dylan Jones, Eric Jones, Eileen Edwards and Brenda Jones, as well as Tony O Regan for making their input possible. Pat Elkins and Tony Little for assistance in preparing the database of producer contacts. Meadow Quality (Graig Farm) for use of their price data charts. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the results presented in this report, responsibility for any errors rests with the authors and feedback is always welcome. However, the quantification of the scale of the Welsh organic sector is still an imprecise art and there are significant margins for error. This report is necessarily a summary of a huge quantity of data. Readers wishing for information behind the tables and figures provided are welcome to contact Organic Centre Wales. Also, readers with suggestions for information which would be useful should contact us.
Summary The 2013 Welsh organic producer survey was undertaken via a telephone survey during October and November 2013. Contact details for a total of 946 Welsh organic producers were identified, and 707 producers were contacted (76%). This resulted in 537 completed surveys as 151 producers had decertified from organic farming or retired, with only 19 producers declining to participate. Welsh organic land and livestock Land use data collected through the producer survey and organic control body (CB) data available through Defra, are summarised in Table A below. The survey collected data recorded approximately 70,000 hectares (ha) of land from 537 respondents. Using the overall survey response rate of 76%, the survey figures were then multiplied up to estimate the total land area of the Welsh organic sector. It was estimated that the sector comprised of approximately 91,170ha in 2013. The Defra statistical data from control bodies for 2012 was higher at 122,718 ha, (equivalent to 8% of Welsh agricultural land), with this difference in land area probably due to the number of organic holdings that de-certified during 2013, resulting in approximately 20-25% less Welsh organic land by the end of 2013 (see further analysis). Table A Welsh organically managed land areas by enterprise and organic status (hectares) Survey responses Estimated total from 2013 survey Defra CB data (2012) All Wales land ** (2012) Enterprise Holdings Organic Inconvconv. % In- Organic Total Organic Total Holdings Area Area Forage - 64629 1662 66291 85100 2200 87300-111288 1161378 9.6% Arable 73 2693 10 2704 3500 0 3500 246 5063 88155 5.7% Hort* 31 52 0 53 70 0 70 162 338 1473 22.9% Other - 226 0 226 300 0 300-2010 44190 4.5% Total 537 67600 1672 69272 88970 2200 91170 952 118699 1475176 8.0% * Horticulture includes potatoes in this table ** All Wales land areas published by Welsh Government (Welsh Agricultural Statistics 2011) The number of Welsh organic livestock was also surveyed (shown in Table B below). As for the land areas, estimated total livestock figures for the Welsh organic sector were also calculated, but using two methods; the overall survey response rate of 76% and the individual enterprise response rates e.g. 56% for beef cattle. These estimated data were then compared to Defra CB data, with the estimates based upon the overall survey response rate lower than either the Defra CB statistics or the individual sector calculated estimates. As with the land areas, the decertification of 20-25% of Welsh organic holdings will have reduced the organic livestock numbers during 2013 (see further analysis), so the overall survey response rate estimates are probably a better reflection of livestock numbers at the end of 2013. Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 i Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Table B Welsh organically managed breeding livestock Actual survey data Estimated total calculated by survey sector response % Estimated total calculated at overall survey response % Defra CB data (2012) Breeding Cattle 8543 56% 15400 11300 13541 Breeding Sheep 134771 55% 247000 180100 246559 Dairy cows 6009 54% 11200 76% 7900 11340 Laying hens 12920 38% 33900 17000 25442 Sows 26 20% 100 30 99 * Defra 2011 certification body data Effect of recent reversion to non-organic farming As mentioned previously the 2013 survey identified that approximately 21% of respondents had de-certified during 2013 (up to mid-november). To estimate the effect at Welsh sector level, data from the 2012 producer survey was used to estimate the potential losses (with the actual data up-scaled to Welsh level using the 76% survey response rate). The estimates indicated in Table C show a significant impact with the loss of 20% of grassland, 18% of arable land, 30% of beef, 25% of sheep and 18% of dairy animals. Table C Organic land and livestock reverted to non-organic (Jan to Nov 2013) Linked data Estimated losses to Welsh organic sector* (from 2012 survey) Total % Grassland 11237 22191 20% Arable 278 651 13% Beef 6339 14857 30% Sheep 43216 101288 25% Dairy 2093 4905 18% * Estimated Wales total calculated based upon matched data and survey response rate Sales Welsh organic sales data shown in Table D presents data collected through the survey and estimated total Welsh organic sector sales data. The results indicate that in 2013 Welsh organic farms produced approximately 6600 finished beef, 138,000 finished lambs and 45 million litres of milk, all lower than reported in 2012. However, the proportion of livestock sold organically increased in 2013, but 40% of fully organic finished lambs (42,000 lambs), 33% of store cattle (1700 head), and around 70% of store lambs (13,000) were still sold into conventional supply chains. Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 ii Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Table D Welsh organically managed livestock sales by enterprise and organic status, (survey recorded and estimated total Welsh organic sales based on the 76% survey response rate) Survey responses Estimated sales data* Organic In-conv. Nonorganiorganiorganic % non- Non- Total Organic In-conv. Total Finished cattle 4867 24 156 5047 3% 6400 0 200 6600 Store cattle 3476 73 1737 5286 33% 4600 100 2300 7000 Finished lambs 61953 978 42088 105019 40% 82000 1000 55000 138000 Store lambs 5938 672 13283 19893 69% 8000 1000 17000 26000 Milk (thou' litres) 34369 0 30 34399 0% 45000 0 0 45000 Eggs (thou' doz.) 455 0 2 457 0% 600 0 0 600 Pigs (all classes) 198 5 7 210 3% 300 0 0 300 *Estimated total calculated with overall survey response rate of 64% Future intentions of producers Figure A indicates that around 70% of finished cattle producers were confident current prices are high enough to continue beef production, but as in 2012, finished lamb producers were fairly unhappy, with 60% of lamb producers believing prices were too low to continue organic lamb production. Milk producers were slightly more optimistic in 2013, whilst around 50% of egg and pig producers were satisfied with the prices they received. Figure A Are current prices high enough to continue organic production? Finished cattle Finished lamb Milk Eggs Pigs Horticulture Arable cropping Direct sales 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Yes Unsure No At a time of continued change in the support payment structure in Wales, and with a number of producers already decertifying, the remaining producers were asked how long they intended to continue organic farming. The results in Figure B below indicate that around 20% intend to leave the sector in the next 12 months, with an additional 18% indicating that they may revert to conventional farming within 2 years. This compares to the 2012 survey that showed 26% and 21% of producers may revert within 1 or 2 years respectively. The loss of 21% of producers in 2013 Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 iii Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
% of producers (up to the point of surveying in November), has already caused a significant impact; an additional 20% of producers reverting could reduce the number of Welsh organic holdings to below 600. The number of organic farming support agreements fell to 620 at the start of 2014, consistent with this projection. Figure B How long are you intending to continue organic production? 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% <1yr <2yrs 3-5 yrs 5-10 yrs 10yrs plus 2013 2012 Conclusion The 2013 producer survey highlighted reductions in land and livestock within the Welsh organic sector, with approximately 20% of organic producers reverting in 2013 (up to November). There is a high likelihood that more producers have reverted since the survey was undertaken as their OFS contract extensions expired on 31 st December 2013, with an additional 20% of producers indicating they would de-certify within 12 months. The decertified producers listed high feed prices, a lack of premium and family consideration as the main reasons, but issues such as costs of certification and technical problems also featured. However, sales figures recorded through the survey also indicated that virtually all output is now fully organic and the percentage of output sold into an organic supply chain had improved, though overall organic sales were lower for many outputs. Further progress is required to reduce organic sales to the conventional sector of finished lamb and store cattle and lambs. The 2012 producer survey indicated that many producers were likely to de-certify which has now occurred, resulting in a smaller Welsh organic sector, but financial information from analysis of Farm Business Survey data indicate that organic farms continue to perform at a similar and greater financial level. So despite short term instability, prospects for remaining producers are positive and reduced supply of some outputs may improve prices. Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 iv Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Contents Acknowledgements... i Summary... i Welsh organic land and livestock... i Effect of recent reversion to non-organic farming... ii Sales... ii Future intentions of producers... iii Conclusion... iv Contents... v Tables... vii Figures... viii Introduction... 1 Methods... 1 Defra organic certification statistics at 1 st January 2013 (collected during 2012)... 2 Survey response rates... 3 Welsh organic and in-conversion farms... 4 Effect of reversion to non-organic farming in Wales... 4 Livestock numbers... 7 Farm diversification... 9 Organic Sales... 10 Livestock sales... 10 Cattle sales... 12 Sheep sales... 13 Milk sales... 14 Egg sales... 14 Pig sales... 14 Livestock marketing routes... 14 Livestock feed & fodder... 15 Livestock technical issues... 16 Horticulture and arable cropping... 17 Horticulture... 17 Arable cropping... 18 Direct sales... 19 Future intentions of producers... 20 Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 v Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Financial Results for 2012/13 (with 2011/12 data for reference)... 22 LFA Cattle & Sheep farms... 22 Lowland Cattle & Sheep farms... 23 Dairy farms... 24 Conclusions... 25 Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 vi Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Tables Table A Welsh organically managed land areas by enterprise and organic status (hectares)... i Table B Welsh organically managed breeding livestock... ii Table C Organic land and livestock reverted to non-organic (Jan to Nov 2013)... ii Table D Welsh organically managed livestock sales by enterprise and organic status, (survey recorded and estimated total Welsh organic sales based on the 76% survey response rate)... iii Table 1 Welsh certified organic and in-conversion holdings and land use, end of 2010 to end of 2012... 2 Table 2 Welsh certified organic and in-conversion livestock, end of 2010 to end of 2012... 3 Table 3 Survey response... 3 Table 4 Completed survey sections compared to enterprises identified from certification data... 4 Table 5 Organic land area decertified - Jan to Nov 2013... 5 Table 6 Organic livestock decertified - Jan to Nov 2013... 5 Table 7 Reasons for reverting to non-organic farming (Jan to Nov 2013)... 5 Table 8 Organic and in-conversion land area (ha) in Wales (survey results)... 6 Table 9 Organic and in-conversion land area (ha) in Wales (estimated total areas and 2012 CB data)... 7 Table 10 Survey recorded organic/in conversion breeding stock retained in 2013 and 2012... 7 Table 11 Estimated total Welsh organic and in-conversion livestock, (using individual sector response rates)... 8 Table 12 Estimated total Welsh organic and in-conversion livestock, (using survey response rate of 76%)... 8 Table 13 Survey collected (2013), and estimated total Welsh organically managed livestock data, with 2012 Defra CB data for comparison... 9 Table 14 Reported level of diversification within Welsh organic and converting farm businesses, 2013... 9 Table 15 Reported livestock sales 2013 (with 2012 data for comparison)... 10 Table 16 Reported non-organic livestock sales in 2013 and % split of non-organic sales (exc. in-conversion). (2012 data for comparison)... 10 Table 17 Estimated total Welsh produced organic livestock sales (based on sector specific response rates)... 11 Table 18 Estimated total Welsh produced organic livestock sales (based on the 64% survey response rate)... 11 Table 19 Marketing route of organically produced finished beef and lamb sales (2010 to 2013)... 15 Table 20 Marketing route of organically produced store cattle and lamb sales (2010 to 2013)... 15 Table 21 Organic livestock concentrate feed use, proportion bought-in, prices and availability... 16 Table 22 Technical issues identified with organic livestock production... 16 Table 23 Horticulture production, prices and market split... 17 Table 24 Percentage of horticultural producers experiencing difficulties with various factors... 17 Table 25 Arable production, prices and marketing route (2013 harvest)... 18 Table 26 Percentage of arable producers experiencing difficulties with various factors... 18 Table 27 Main type of produce sold... 19 Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 vii Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Table 28 Percentage of total business turnover from direct sales... 19 Table 29 Direct sales changes during the previous 12 months... 19 Table 30 Welsh organic producers organic farming intentions for the next 12 months (data for 2007 2013)... 20 Table 31 Are current (2013) prices for products sufficiently high to continue producing them organically?... 21 Table 32 Length of time producer intends to remain organic... 21 Table 33 LFA Cattle & Sheep results (2012/13 and 2011/12)... 22 Table 34 Lowland Cattle & Sheep results (2012/13 and 2011/12)... 23 Table 35 Dairy results (2012/13 and 2011/12)... 24 Figures Figure A Are current prices high enough to continue organic production?... iii Figure B How long are you intending to continue organic production?... iv Figure 1 Finished cattle sales 2013 and 2012... 12 Figure 2 Finished cattle prices 2013 and 2012 (organic and conventional)... 12 Figure 3 Finished lamb sales 2013 and 2012... 13 Figure 4 Finished lamb prices 2013 and 2012 (organic and conventional)... 13 Figure 5 Milk sales spilt 2013 and 2012... 14 Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 viii Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Introduction The Welsh Government-funded 2013 Organic Centre Wales (OCW) Producer Survey report continues on from the series of Better Organic Business Link (BOBL) and Farming Connect-funded reports, from 2007 to 2012. The report aims to provide the Welsh organic sector with annual, comparable statistical information and provide data that are otherwise not available from other sources. The survey also aims to provide a means for producers to relay their views on the current state of organic farming to OCW partners and policy makers. Methods The survey was designed and analysed by Organic Centre Wales with the telephone survey undertaken by specialist agri-survey staff within the Farm Business Survey (FBS) unit of IBERS, Aberystwyth University. The survey contact database was formed through a combination of two data sources; organic certification data supplied to Defra by Control Bodies and the OCW producer database, resulting in a database of 946 producers. The survey questionnaire was developed during September and October 2013 with minimal changes to allow comparison between years, comprising of an opening section to capture producers general views about organic farming, a land area and livestock data section and then sections specific to each enterprise, e.g. beef, sheep etc. As in 2012, the survey was conducted entirely via telephone, though all producers on the contact list were sent a letter outlining reasons for the survey and the type of questions before the phone calls commenced. The survey phone calls commenced on Wednesday 6 th November and were concluded by Friday 15 th November 2013. Data collation and analysis was carried out using the same methodology as in previous years, with all survey data extracted to form a database of responses for analysis and results presented in this report. Where possible, data from the previous year are presented alongside for comparison, though due to slight changes in the survey questions results may not always be comparable. Survey collected data are useful, but to fully understand the implications of the data collected, it is valuable to have figures for the whole organic sector in Wales. Therefore to give estimated results at Welsh organic sector level, it is necessary to multiply up the survey collected figures to attempt to present a 100% response level. In the past and for this report the survey response rate is used to scale up data. This is achieved by dividing the actual survey data by the response percentage. The survey response rate for each enterprise was calculated by dividing the number of each enterprise survey responses divided by the Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 1 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
number of enterprises indicated within the Defra certification data (see appendix 1). The overall survey response rate was also used to calculate data and is shown for comparison. Although this methodology is subject to error and caution should be used when using these data, it does allow for improved interpretation of the figures. For the 2013 report, estimates of the 100% organic data are shown via both overall survey response and enterprise response Defra organic certification statistics at 1 st January 2013 (collected during 2012) Organic Centre Wales receives certification data from Defra on an annual basis (see appendix 1). These data are collected annually from producers by the organic certification bodies (CBs) during annual inspection visits and are reported to Defra as an EU legal requirement under organic legislation. Using this data, OCW undertakes a detailed analysis, providing an estimate of the area of organic and in-conversion land and numbers of livestock within Wales, with results shown in Table 1, below. Based on certification data collected during 2012 and Welsh agricultural data released by the Welsh Government 1 (2011 is the latest detailed data available), the figures show a 3% decrease in the Welsh organic land area in 2012, to 118,699 ha; equivalent to 8.0% of Welsh agricultural land. The total tillage area appeared to decrease for the second year with 8% less cultivated land, a significant reduction of 1527 ha over the last two years. Table 1 Welsh certified organic and in-conversion holdings and land use, end of 2010 to end of 2012 end 2010 end 2011 end 2012 11-12 Change All Wales 2011* Approx. organic % of Welsh agric. land* Certified organic holdings No. 1006 964 952-1% 23884 4.0% Total Area Ha 121093 122718 118699-3% 1475176 8.0% Cereals Ha 3193 2863 2907 2% 55066 5.3% Other arable/fodder crops Ha 3317 2638 2116-20% 30550 6.9% Potatoes Ha 38 41 41 0% 2539 1.6% Horticulture (exc. Potatoes) Ha 379 312 338 8% 1473 22.9% Total tillage area Ha 6928 5854 5401-8% 89628 6.0% Temp grass Ha 9474 9662 10074 4% 116681 8.6% Arable land (inc temp grass) Ha 16402 15517 15475 0% 206309 7.5% Permanent grass/rough grazing Ha 102464 105517 101214-4% 1044697 9.7% Woodland/other Ha 2227 1684 2010 19% 44190 4.5% * All Wales data for 2011 (Welsh Government) 1 http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/welsh-agricultural-statistics/?lang=en Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 2 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Welsh organic livestock data from control bodies shown in Table 2, and highlights a decrease in all livestock numbers except for pigs. Reductions in beef and sheep were minimal, but reductions in dairy cow and laying hen numbers were more significant. Table 2 Welsh certified organic and in-conversion livestock, end of 2010 to end of 2012 end 2010 end 2011 end 2012 11-12 Change All Wales 2011 Approx. organic % of Welsh livestock* Beef cows 11530 14111 13541-4% 236833 5.7% Dairy cows 12478 13868 11340-18% 275243 4.1% Other cattle 28032 32516 31985-2% 611373 5.2% Ewes 177062 255182 246559-3% 3722872 6.6% Other sheep 181038 275851 275346 0% 4896542 5.6% Laying hens 38405 38251 25442-33% 1463722 1.7% Table birds 104667 104394 100192-4% 5872847 1.7% Other poultry 109446 9651 8647-10% 609499 1.4% Sows 332 72 99 38% 3488 2.8% Other pigs 359 357 378 6% 22321 1.7% Other livestock 2452 3604 488-86% no data - * All Wales data for 2011 (Welsh Government) Survey response rates Table 3 below indicates that the survey achieved an overall completion rate of 76% with 707 out of a possible 946 producers contacted, though the survey team identified 150 producers who had decertified from organic production within the last 12 months, which is discussed later in the report. Table 3 Survey response Number % Organic producer contact list 946 Producers contacted 707 75% Declines 19 3% Reverted to non-organic 150 21% Given up farming 1 0% Survey completed 537 76% Approximately 28% of the respondents elected to complete the survey through the medium of Welsh; whilst 5% of respondents were under 40 years, 64% were between 40 and 60, and 31% were over 60. The survey comprised of a general section and then various enterprise specific sections e.g. beef, lamb, milk etc. To enable scaling up of survey results to full Welsh organic sector level, survey response rates of different enterprises were calculated. The number of completed enterprise sections is divided by the number of enterprises identified from the Defra data (see Table 1 and Table 2 above). The enterprise Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 3 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
completion percentage is then used to estimate organic area and livestock figures for the Welsh organic sector. The 2013 data indicate both a lower number of enterprise sections completed and percentage completion rates, probably due to the number of farms that have decertified since the Defra statistics were collected. Table 4 Completed survey sections compared to enterprises identified from certification data Enterprise type 2013 survey 2012 survey Defra CB data Survey completion rate 2013 2012 2013 2012 Beef 305 358 547 574 56% 62% Sheep 345 403 623 643 55% 63% Dairy 56 69 104 116 54% 59% Pigs 8 8 40 37 20% 22% Eggs 24 21 63 46 38% 46% Fruit & Vegetables 31 46 162 165 19% 28% Grains & Pulses 73 93 246 259 30% 36% Direct sales 38 52 n/a n/a n/a n/a Welsh organic and in-conversion farms Organic farms continue to be a prominent feature of Welsh agriculture, but the survey highlighted that during 2013 a significant number of organic producers de-certified from organic production. Effect of reversion to non-organic farming in Wales During 2013, Welsh Government and Certification Bodies indicated that a number of producers had decertfied and the 2013 survey comfirmed this with 150 respondents informing the survey team that they had decertified (see Table 3). To understand the effect of this on land use and livestock numbers, 2012 producer survey data was linked to producers that indicated they had decertified in 2013 (where data could be linked). This data was then scaled up to Welsh organic sector level and compared to Defra figures at the start of 2013. The analysis in Table 5 indicates that around 20% of the organic grassland area has already reverted, with a lower proportion of arable land and minimal horticultural losses. Overall it is estimated that 20% of Welsh organic land at 1 st January 2013 has now been lost from the sector, which has also had implications for Welsh organic livestock numbers presented in Table 6. The data indicate large reductions in beef (30%), sheep (25%) and dairy cattle (18%) as well as pigs though there did not appear to be a direct effect on poultry enterprises. Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 4 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Table 5 Organic land area decertified - Jan to Nov 2013 Linked data Estimated losses to Welsh organic sector* (from 2012 survey) Total % Grassland (inc. rough grazing) 11237 22191 20% Arable (Combined and fodder crops) 278 651 13% Horticulture (exc. Potatoes) 2 4 1% Woodland (non-food) 155 363 18% Total 23209 20% * Estimated Wales total calculated based upon matched data and survey response rate Table 6 Organic livestock decertified - Jan to Nov 2013 Linked data Estimated losses to Welsh organic sector* (from 2012 survey) Total % Beef 6339 14857 30% Sheep 43216 101288 25% Dairy 2093 4905 18% Pigs 17 40 10% Poultry 0 0 0% Total 121090 * Estimated Wales total calculated based upon matched data and survey response rate Producers indicating that they had reverted were briefly asked why they had taken this decision, with results presented in Table 7 below. High feed costs and a lack of organic premium for output were cited as the primary reasons, though retirement/family reasons, certification costs, technical issues (such as weed control), a lack of organic market and the ending of Organic Farming Scheme agreements were also listed as prominent reasons. Table 7 Reasons for reverting to non-organic farming (Jan to Nov 2013) Time since decertification: <3mths 3-6mths 6mths+ Overall Number 33 93 24 150 Retired/family reasons 1 19 14 11% High feed price 7 51 4 20% Lack of organic premium 20 23 2 15% Lack of organic market 12 15 1 9% Certification costs 9 13 8 10% Certification rules 2 15 0 6% OFS agreement ending 15 12 1 9% Expect future OFS to be low 1 12 6 6% Technical issues 0 30 0 10% Other (please state) 11 0 0 4% Recent communication within the organic sector indicates that the number of holdings decertifying may have continued in latter 2013 and into 2014. There is a high likelihood that more producers have reverted since the survey was undertaken as their OFS contract extensions expired on 31 st December 2013, so losses to the sector may be greater than indicated above. Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 5 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
As indicated in the previous section, the organic certification data supplied to Defra was collected over a 12 month period; therefore the data are always slightly out of date by the time of release, therefore the 2013 producer survey continued to request producers to provide basic information about their land, its use and their land s organic status. The compiled land data shown in Table 8 provides information for both aggregate land types and individual crops in 2012/13. Table 8 Organic and in-conversion land area (ha) in Wales (survey results) Fully organic In-conversion % land split Area ha % split Area ha % split Org % In-conv % All forage 64630 95.6% 1660 99.4% 97.5% 2.5% Arable 2690 4.0% 10 0.6% 99.6% 0.4% Horticulture 50 0.1% 0 0.0% 99.2% 0.8% Other 230 0.3% 0 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Total 67600 1670 98% 2% Grassland (inc. rough grazing) 64630 95.6% 1660 99.4% 97.5% 2.5% Fodder crops (inc. legumes, roots) 650 1.0% 10 0.6% 98.5% 1.5% Arable forage 1030 1.5% 0 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Arable crops (combined) 1010 1.5% 0 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Potatoes 10 0.0% 0 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Horticulture (exc. Potatoes) 40 0.1% 0 0.0% 99.1% 0.9% Other 230 0.3% 0 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Based upon the data collected through the survey, land data was then scaled up to estimate Welsh organic sector totals for the various categories, based on the overall survey response rate of 76%. (see Table 9). The data for fully organic land shows the majority of land (ca. 96%) is forage with the arable area (including fodder and cereal crops) accounting for most of the remainder, whilst the Welsh horticultural area remained very small. The area of land in-conversion was minimal due to the very low number of producers currently in conversion. Overall, although some of the data are not directly comparable to Defra statistics, Table 9 shows the reduction in land area due to some producers decertifying in 2013. Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 6 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Table 9 Organic and in-conversion land area (ha) in Wales (estimated total areas and 2012 CB data) Crop Type Survey response rate Calculated total Welsh areas from survey response rate Defra CB data 2012 Organic In-conv Total Total Grassland (inc. rough grazing) 85100 2200 87300 111288 Arable 3500 0 3500 5022 Horticulture 76% 70 0 70 379 Other 300 0 300 2010 Totals 88970 2200 91200 118699 Grassland (inc. rough grazing) 85100 2200 87300 111288 Fodder crops (inc. legumes, roots) 900 0 900 - Arable forage 1400 0 1400 - Arable crops (combined) 76% 1300 0 1300 2907 Potatoes 10 0 10 41 Horticulture (exc. Potatoes) 60 0 60 338 Other 300 0 300 2010 Livestock numbers Respondents were asked to provide details of organic and in-conversion livestock retained on their holdings at 31st October 2013, shown in Table 10, below. Table 10 Survey recorded organic/in conversion breeding stock retained in 2013 and 2012 Organic 2013 In-conversion 2013 2013 Total 2012 Total Head n Head n Head Head Breeding Cattle 8543 261 41 2 8584 10264 Growing Cattle 14374 275 24 1 14398 20031 Replacement Beef Heifers 916 120 0 0 916 1522 Breeding Sheep 134771 334 2000 4 136771 167190 Growing Sheep 20487 133 0 0 20487 46231 Ewe Lamb Replacements 27962 257 190 4 28152 42766 Dairy cows 6009 51 0 0 6009 10014 Dairy heifers 3109 49 0 0 3109 6976 Laying hens 12920 24 0 0 12920 25335 Sows 26 8 0 0 26 46 The 2013 data generally shows a reduction in livestock numbers recorded through the producer survey, despite the increased response rate and is probably associated with the reduction in numbers of producers. From the survey collected data, estimated livestock numbers at Welsh organic sector level were calculated. For comparison, this calculation was undertaken both by calculating the response rate per individual enterprise, as well as by using the overall survey response rate of 76%. Table 11 (estimates from sector- Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 7 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
specific response rates) and Table 12 (estimates from overall survey response rate) below, indicate the estimated Welsh organic sector organic and in-conversion stock numbers. Table 11 Estimated total Welsh organic and in-conversion livestock, (using individual sector response rates) Sector response rate Organic 2013 In-conversion 2013 2013 Total 2012 Estimate* Head Head Head Head Breeding Cattle 15321 74 15400 16500 Growing Cattle 56% 25779 43 25800 32100 Replacement Beef Heifers 1643 0 1600 2400 Breeding Sheep 243369 3612 247000 266800 Growing Sheep 55% 36995 0 37000 73800 Ewe Lamb Replacements 50494 343 50800 68200 Dairy cows 11160 0 11200 16800 54% Dairy heifers 5774 0 5800 11700 Laying hens 38% 33915 0 33900 55500 Sows 20% 130 0 100 200 * 2011 estimates were calculated at 2011 sector specific response rates Table 12 Estimated total Welsh organic and in-conversion livestock, (using survey response rate of 76%) Survey response rate Organic 2013 In-conversion 2013 2013 Total 2012 Estimate* Head Head Head Head Breeding Cattle 11247 54 11300 16100 Growing Cattle 18924 32 19000 31500 Replacement Beef Heifers 1206 0 1200 2400 Breeding Sheep 177436 2633 180100 263100 Growing Sheep 26973 0 27000 72700 76% Ewe Lamb Replacements 36814 250 37100 67300 Dairy cows 7911 0 7900 15800 Dairy heifers 4093 0 4100 11000 Laying hens 17010 0 17000 39900 Sows 34 0 30 100 * 2011 estimate assumed a 66% survey response rate overall Organic and in conversion livestock numbers, summarised in Table 13, indicate survey collected numbers and estimated Welsh totals, in addition to 2012 certification data from Defra for comparison. In general, the enterprise specific estimates match the Defra CB data more closely, with estimates based upon the overall response rate lower than Defra statistics. However, due to the reduction in numbers of organic producers estimates based upon the overall survey rate are probably more reflective of the current situation. Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 8 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Table 13 Survey collected (2013), and estimated total Welsh organically managed livestock data, with 2012 Defra CB data for comparison Actual survey data Calculated by survey sector response % Calculated at overall survey response % Defra CB data* Breeding Cattle 8543 15400 11300 13541 Growing Cattle 14374 56% 25800 76% 19000 Replacement Beef Heifers 916 1600 1200 Breeding Sheep 134771 247000 180100 246559 Growing Sheep 20487 55% 37000 76% 27000 Ewe Lamb Replacements 27962 50800 37100 Dairy cows 6009 11200 7900 11340 54% 76% Dairy heifers 3109 5800 4100 Laying hens 12920 38% 33900 76% 17000 25442 Sows 26 20% 100 76% 30 99 * Defra CB data end of 2012 Farm diversification As indicated in previous producer survey reports, farm diversification is often a significant source of income for organic farms. Table 14 indicates that in 2013, 25% of organic farms had a diversified enterprise, lower than 34% indicated in the 2012 survey. This trend is reflected across enterprises and may be linked to the loss in certified organic producers in 2013 (indicated by the reduction in renewable energy enterprises which would be unlikely to decrease between years given the investment). Table 14 Reported level of diversification within Welsh organic and converting farm businesses, 2013 2013 2012 % n % n Farm has a diversified enterprise 25% 133 34% 217 On farm processing 3% 18 4% 24 On farm retailing 3% 16 4% 23 Educational activities 1% 6 1% 9 Tourism activities (with food) 2% 11 3% 22 Tourism activities (without food) 6% 30 9% 59 Agricultural contracting 3% 14 4% 28 Renewable energy 8% 45 13% 82 Other 5% 27 4% 27 Multiple diversification enterprises 6% 30 7% 47 Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 9 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Organic Sales Certified organic crops and livestock may be sold to organic outlets or non-organic outlets at conventional prices. This section analyses the quantities and proportions of output marketed as organic. Livestock sales Livestock sales recorded through the producer survey are presented in Table 15. Sales were recorded as those sold to as certified organic, those sold as in-conversion and those sold conventionally for another reason, e.g. due to a lack of organic market. Survey recorded data (Table 15), indicated that reported organic sales were greater for cattle and store lambs but lower for other output. Non-organic sales due to in-conversion status were minimal whilst non-organic sales due to other reasons were generally lower; Table 15 Reported livestock sales 2013 (with 2012 data for comparison) Organic Non-organic sales Total Responses In-conversion Other reason n 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 Finished cattle 4867 4335 24 201 156 231 5047 4767 152 147 Store cattle 3476 3212 73 226 1737 2642 5286 6080 190 243 Finished lambs 61953 70634 978 5456 42088 56826 105019 132916 290 353 Store lambs 5938 5165 672 364 13283 20074 19893 25603 111 148 Milk (thou' litres) 34369 49417 0 225 30 2686 34399 52328 56 69 Eggs (thou' doz.) 455 516 0 0 2 6 457 522 24 21 Pigs (all classes) 198 516 5 0 7 15 244 535 8 7 Results shown in Table 16 indicate that non-organic sales as a percentage of total sales decreased in 2013. Whilst non-organic sales due to finishing specification or high conventional prices decreased, this was replaced by high non-organic sales due to a lack of organic market. Table 16 Reported non-organic livestock sales in 2013 and % split of non-organic sales (exc. inconversion). (2012 data for comparison) Reported nonorganic sales (exc. in-conv.) Non-org sales as % of total sales Due to finishing spec / high conv. Prices Due to lack of organic market Due to other reasons 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 Finished cattle 156 231 3% 5% 53% 75% 33% 12% 14% 13% Store cattle 1737 2642 33% 43% 42% 54% 31% 18% 27% 28% Finished lambs 42088 56826 40% 43% 29% 60% 59% 28% 12% 12% Store lambs 13283 20074 67% 78% 16% 46% 63% 35% 21% 19% Milk (thou' litres) 30 2686 0% 5% 0% 0% 100% 85% 0% 15% Eggs (thou' doz.) 2 6 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 64% 100% 36% Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 10 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
As with the retained livestock data (see Table 10), the actual livestock sales recorded by the survey were scaled up to estimate sales at Welsh organic sector level, with values calculated by two methods (overall and sector specific response rates). Table 17 shows data multiplied up by the individual sector response rates; Table 18 shows data multiplied up by the overall survey response rate of 76%. Due to the decertification of up to 200 producers between January and November 2013 scaled up sales figures in Table 17 and Table 18 should be treated with caution. Data within Table 17 indicate similar or greater organic sales in 2013, whilst Table 18 figures are probably a better reflection of estimated sales, indicating similar finished beef and store lamb figures but lower organic sales of finished lamb, milk and other outputs. In-conversion and other non-organic sales also declined. Table 17 Estimated total Welsh produced organic livestock sales (based on sector specific response rates) Sector response rate Non-organic sales Organic Total In conversion Other non-organic 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 Finished cattle 56% 8700 7000 0 300 300 400 9100 7600 Store cattle 56% 6200 5100 100 400 3100 4200 9500 9700 Finished lambs 55% 112000 113000 2000 9000 76000 91000 190000 212000 Store lambs 55% 11000 8000 1000 1000 24000 32000 36000 41000 Milk (thou' litres) 54% 64000 83000 0 400 100 4500 63900 88000 Eggs (thou' doz.) 38% 1200 1100 0 0 0 0 1200 1100 Pigs (all classes) 20% 1000 2400 0 0 0 100 1200 2500 * 2011 estimates calculated at 2011 sector specific response rates Table 18 Estimated total Welsh produced organic livestock sales (based on the 64% survey response rate) Survey response rate Non-organic sales Organic Total In conversion Other non-organic 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 Finished cattle 6400 6800 0 300 200 400 6600 7500 Store cattle 4600 5100 100 400 2300 4200 7000 9600 Finished lambs 82000 111000 1000 9000 55000 89000 138000 209000 Store lambs 76% 8000 8000 1000 1000 17000 32000 26000 40000 Milk (thou' litres) 45000 78000 0 400 0 4200 45300 82300 Eggs (thou' doz.) 600 800 0 0 0 0 600 800 Pigs (all classes) 300 800 0 0 0 0 300 800 * 2012 estimate assumed a 64% survey response rate overall Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 11 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Beef price /KgDW Cattle sales Figure 1 indicates that virtually all finished cattle sales were sold into organic markets in 2013. The finished cattle price graph Figure 2, indicates very higher organic prices, with a significant premium available over conventional prices, though this reduced during late 2013. Figure 1 Finished cattle sales 2013 and 2012 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Organic In-conv Finishing spec. High conv. prices Other reasons 2013 96% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2012 91% 4% 4% 1% 1% 2013 2012 Figure 2 Finished cattle prices 2013 and 2012 (organic and conventional) 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 Organic Conventional Sources: Organic: Graig Producers/Meadow Quality, Conventional: HCC/AHDB Store cattle sales had much lower levels of in-conversion sales but non-organic sales due to other reasons were high at 73% of total sales. Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 12 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Lamb price /KgDW Sheep sales The percentage of total organic finished lambs sold organically increased to almost 60% in 2013. The percentage of non-organic sales (excluding livestock in-conversion) decreased slightly to 40% of total sales, with the majority sold conventionally due to finishing specification or high conventional prices. Figure 4 indicates that during 2013 the organic lamb price remained very similar to the conventional price with few months when there was a premium available. Figure 3 Finished lamb sales 2013 and 2012 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Organic In-conv Finishing spec. High conv. prices Other reasons 2013 59% 1% 12% 24% 5% 2012 53% 4% 26% 12% 5% 2013 2012 Figure 4 Finished lamb prices 2013 and 2012 (organic and conventional) 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 Organic Conventional Sources: Organic: Graig Producers/Meadow Quality, Conventional: HCC/AHDB The proportion of store lambs sold organically increased slightly to 33% Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 13 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Milk sales Milk sales data indicate that overall organic milk sales were lower in 2013, at between 45 and 60 million litres, with minimal non-organic sales. Organic milk price data are still not readily available, but surveyed producers indicated that they received an average of 33.0ppl in 2013 for milk sold organically, a 7.5% increase compared to 30.7ppl in 2012. Figure 5 Milk sales spilt 2013 and 2012 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Organic In-conv Finishing spec. Lack of org. market Other reasons 2013 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2012 94% 0% 0% 4% 1% 2013 2012 Egg sales Organic egg sales appeared to be similar or slightly lower in 2013, though due to the small sample and large scale of some producers the margin of error can be quite large. The average price received was slightly higher in 2013 at 2.62 per dozen, compared to 2.49 in 2012, but this varied greatly between producers selling in bulk (typically 1.50/dz.) or direct to the public (e.g. 2.50 plus). Pig sales Organic pig sales in 2013 were much lower than in 2012, though the number of producers is very small in Wales, which affects the robustness of estimates. Livestock marketing routes Sales from beef and sheep livestock enterprises were recorded by their marketing route, indicating the sales split between different marketing routes for finished stock (Table 19) and store stock (Table 20). Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 14 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Table 19 Marketing route of organically produced finished beef and lamb sales (2010 to 2013) Cattle Lamb 2013 2012 2011 2010 2013 2012 2011 2010 Direct to Abattoir 79% 77% 69% 53% 66% 60% 57% 49% Producer Group 8% 9% 14% 21% 3% 4% 6% 9% Livestock mart. 2% 4% 7% 17% 24% 31% 34% 36% Direct to public 11% 10% 11% 8% 7% 5% 3% 5% n 143 151 150 177 295 370 376 372 The 2013 survey indicates another increase in the percentage of finished stock that was sold direct to an abattoir for both finished beef and lamb. The percentage of finished beef sold directly has increased from 53% in 2010 to 79% in 2013, whilst finished lamb sold direct has also increased, from 49% in 2010 to 66% in 2013. Sales via producer groups and livestock markets continued to fall in 2013, whilst livestock market sales also decreased, with only 24% of finished lambs still sold through a market, compared to 31% in 2012. Direct sales were similar for beef but continued to increase for lamb. Table 20 Marketing route of organically produced store cattle and lamb sales (2010 to 2013) Cattle Lamb 2013 2012 2011 2010 2013 2012 2011 2010 Producer Group 5% 2% 2% 4% 0% 2% 4% 2% Livestock mart. 60% 68% 70% 68% 77% 75% 73% 78% Direct to another producer 36% 30% 28% 28% 23% 23% 22% 20% n 184 241 246 229 103 139 166 155 The marketing route for store cattle saw the number sold through producer groups or direct to another producer increase, at the expense of livestock market sales. The vast majority of store lambs were still sold through livestock markets, with the remainder sold direct to another producer. Livestock feed & fodder Purchased and homegrown feed usage is shown in Table 21, with most of the beef sector s feed requirements continuing to be sourced as straight cereals with compound feed comprising of only 28% of total requirements. Compound feed continued to comprise a much higher percentage of total feed used for sheep production at 72% of the total. The organic dairy sector continued to use large quantities of compound feed, as well as straights, with almost 7038t recorded through the survey. Based on the overall response rate for the survey (76%), it can be estimated that total organic ruminant concentrate feed requirements for Wales were around 16792 tonnes, considerably lower than the estimated requirement of 28,500 tonnes in 2012 and 21,000 tonnes in 2011. Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 15 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Table 21 Organic livestock concentrate feed use, proportion bought-in, prices and availability Feed used Feed source Feed prices Feed availability* t n Homegrowin Bought- n /t n rating n Cereal 2587 54 87% 13% 55 228 8 1.5 14 Beef Protein 67 7 40% 60% 5 548 5 1.0 4 Compound 1054 97 341 95 1.9 79 Cereal 535 37 91% 9% 35 255 4 1.5 6 Sheep Protein 22 6 0% 100% 3 510 5 1.3 3 Compound 1459 161 371 152 1.9 137 Cereal 915 14 86% 14% 16 249 2 1.8 5 Dairy Protein 124 4 378 4 1.5 2 Compound 5999 48 334 48 1.9 40 Cereal 10 4 50% 50% 2 1 1 Pigs & Poultry Protein - 0 - - 0-0 - 0 Compound 801 24 0 0 436 22 1.9 19 * Feed availability rated from 1=Good, 2=Sufficient, 3=Difficult, 4=Poor, 0=Don't know/no view The proportion of home-grown ruminant feed varied from as high as 91% for cereals fed to sheep down to 0% for protein fed to sheep. Compound and cereal prices were very similar to 2013 with the average ruminant compound feed costing 348/t, almost identical to 345/t in 2012. Cereals fed to ruminants averaged at about 244/t very similar to 234/t in 2012. Protein prices remained more variable, but averaged 479/tonne for ruminants. The pig and poultry sectors were more reliant on bought-in compound feed, averaging at 436/t, an increase compared to 406/tonne in 2012. Due to small sample sizes, estimating the total organic feed requirements for pig and poultry sectors was difficult but using the overall survey response rate of 76% indicated an estimated total of 1067t, significantly lower than 1650 tonnes estimated in 2012. Livestock technical issues Table 22 highlights the technical issues identified by producers within their organic livestock production system. Forage production and health issues were the main concerns within the ruminant systems. Table 22 Technical issues identified with organic livestock production Beef Lamb Milk Forage 10% 9% 21% Health 6% 7% 16% Conc (energy) 3% 3% 4% Biosecurity 0% 0% 5% Conc (protein) 0% 1% 0% Breeding (choice of breed) 1% 1% 2% Infrastructure 0% 0% 2% Other 4% 4% 2% N 69 86 20 Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 16 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University
Horticulture and arable cropping Horticulture Data collection within the horticultural sector has proved difficult due to the small number of producers and the large variety of crops, as well as the varying markets supplied. Table 23 indicates the areas of differing horticultural crop types and the average marketing route for that crop type. It was not possible to quantify output due to the high number of crops and varying scale of operations. Holdings producing mixed market crops and field vegetables were the most prevalent, with a high percentage of produce sold direct to the public though a significant percentage of potatoes and fruit were sold via wholesalers or in bulk. Table 23 Horticulture production, prices and market split Area (ha) Marketing routes Direct to public Wholesale Bulk n Mixed market garden 16.6 79% 13% 8% 15 Potatoes 9.4 19% 61% 20% 7 Field veg 11.3 74% 26% 0% 12 Fruit 16.3 58% 42% 0% 10 Other crops 0 - - - 0 Total 54 n 38 Table 24 indicates that over 25% of horticultural growers responding experienced difficulties in controlling weeds during the 2013 growing season, with changing weather and climate patterns also an issue for many growers. Table 24 Percentage of horticultural producers experiencing difficulties with various factors Difficulty 2013 2012 2011 Weeds 26% 22% 41% Seeds 3% 4% 14% Disease 0% 4% 3% Labour 0% 0% 3% Climate change 10% 11% 7% Machinery 0% 2% 7% Other 10% 24% 24% n 15 31 29 Producers were asked about any marketing difficulties they had experienced but the response was very low so cannot be published, which hopefully indicates that marketing isn t currently a major issue. Welsh Organic Producer Survey 2012 17 Organic Centre Wales, IBERS, Aberystwyth University