World Energy Balance (Source IEA statistics) Global Environmental and Energy Policy 環境 エネルギー技術政策 Global energy balance How to read statistics data? Long-term viewpoint Nov. 21 and 28, 217 Jun TAKAHASHI Suspect an interpretation and the data itself! How to make a policy? Quiz % 149% 11 17 2 4 5 7 21 29 32 Primary Energy Supply by Fuel 32 43 48 67% % 8 15 7 27 Final Energy Consumption by Fuel 12 22 15 Non-energy 6 9 23 19 19 Others Transport Industry Final Energy Consumption by Sector 35 28 28 16% 1% 12% % 8% 6% % 2% % Sectional Energy Consumption of and Non- countries Fossil Resource and Material Production Sectional Energy Consumption of and Non- countries (toe/capita) 212 Population Total Primary Energy Supply Total Final Energy Consumption 1254 million 4.19 toe/capita 2.86 toe/capita Non- 5783 million 1. toe/capita.93 toe/capita 1.6 1.4 1.2.8.6.4.2 Conversion loss Electricity Combustible Gas Oil Coal 1 Non 2 3 Non 4 5 Non 6 7 Non 8 9 Non Conversion Industry Transport Other Non-Energy Loss Sector Sector Sectors Use World coal consumption: 3.9 billion tons 3.2 billion tons (82%) is used as fuel 2.1 billion tons (54%) is used for electricity.7 billion tons (18%) is used to product steel Crude steel production: 1.7 billion tons World oil consumption: 4.3 billion tons 2.6 billion tons (6%) is used for transportation.3 billion tons ( 6%) is used for electricity.6 billion tons (13%) is used to product plastics Plastics production:.29 billion tons
Oil consumption of the world and transport sector Growing World Population and Number of Cars World Oil Consumption (Million tons) 45 35 3 25 2 15 5 transport sector (non-) transport sector () bunker oil other sectors 1973 198 199 1995 2 25 2 1/ of the world (affordable) oil reserves Just burned in transport sector 26/43=.6 Use for plastics production 57/43=.13 Source: EDMC, Energy & Economic Statistics 215 World population (million) Number of Cars (million) 8, 7, non 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1971 1981 1991 21 1,2 1, 8 6 2 non 1971 1981 1991 21 Number of automobile in countries are about an half of the population, and it will not increase. Number of world automobile will increase due to the moralization of non- countries. non- Population 558 Total 331 Passenger 25 Track 126 Population 1229 Total 678 Passenger 48 Track 198 Number of Cars par Capita.6.5.4.3.2.1 World non 1971 1981 1991 21 Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) Long Term Trend in Crude Oil Price 12 8 6 2 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 2 National Energy Cost of the Transport Sector 45 35 3 25 2 15 5 United States United Kingdom Germany France China Japan South Korea 197 198 199 2 2 Annual Energy cost in Transport Sector (billion $) 1, 1,2 1, 8 6 2 United States United Kingdom Germany France China Japan South Korea 197 198 199 2 2 Annual Energy cost in Transport Sector ($ par capita)
Total final energy consumption per capita Transition of the world population World Non- (EU) USA Canada Australia Japan China Total Primary Energy Supply Industrial Sector Total Final Energy Consumption Transportation Sector Other Sectors Non-energy use Upper 1971 Middle 199 Lower 29 Unit: toe/person 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Population / billion 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 World Non- 195 2 25 Source: UN Transition of the world population World Final Energy Consumption Population / billion 1.6 1.4 1.2 人口 ( 億人 ).8.6.4.2 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 中国インドアメリカロシア日本ドイツイギリスフランスイタリア 195 2 25 195 2 25 Source: UN Final Energy Consump tion ( Mtoe), 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1971 1973 Non Energy Use (Non-) Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (Non-) Transport Sector (Non-) Industrial Sector (Non-) Non Energy Use () Residential, Commercial and Agriculture () Transport Sector () Industrial Sector () 198 1985 199 1995 1998 1999 2 4,91.49 2,424Mtoe 1,125 3.21 3,612Mtoe 6,27 6,35Mtoe @23 7,54 3.21 22,643Mtoe @23 7,54.49 3,456Mtoe @23 1,217 3.21 3,97Mtoe 8,27 3.21 26,547Mtoe
Calculation of the amount of solar energy Reference World primary energy supply is about 1.5 toe/year par capita 1.5 [toe/ year par capita] = [kcal/day par capita] Human need energy of 2 [kcal/day par capita] to live. Solar energy flowing into the earth.7 πr 2 [m 2 ] 1367 [J/m 2 s] =.7 1.286 14 [m 2 ] 1367 [J/m 2 s] =1.23 17 [J/s] =2.94 13 [kcal/s] (= 4 [kcal/day par capita]) =2.94[Mtoe/s] (=1.5 4 [toe/year par capita]) We have not used it since fossil fuels were cheap! Studentʼs Presentation at Nov. 28 Consider effective policy to reduce worldʼs fossil fuel consumption by using statistics like todayʼs lecture or following website first. http://www.iea.org/ Then, show your assumption about technological development such as electric vehicle, and introducing schedule of the technologies to our society. Evaluate the long term effect of the technologies on the reduction of fossil fuel consumption till 25 quantitatively based on your assumption. Running Resistance of the Automobile Rolling Air Acceleration Gradient About 75% of the running resistance is proportional to vehicle weight 3% improvement in fuel efficiency is expected by % weight reduction In the case of electric vehicles, the heavy and expensive battery can be reduced in proportion to the weight reduction of vehicle body Energy Consumption (MJ) EV reduces oil consumption drastically, but Gasoline 25 2 15 5 Electricity Gasoline Hybrid weight without battery : 85kg average daily trip distance : 25.4km 2 4 6 8 12 14 16 18 2 Secondary Battery (kwh) Electric There is an optimal amount of secondary battery depends on the weight of vehicle and average daily trip distance. Hence, weight lightening of HEV (Hybrid EV) is effective to reduce cost of the optimal HEV, accordingly, its early spread. In addition, the daily demand of 4kWh, which is generated by 6m 2 of photovoltaic, can also be reduced by vehicle's weight reduction.
CO 2 Emission Structure of Japanese PHEV CO 2 Emission Structure of PHEV in China Converted value 3 weight without battery average daily trip distance : 138 kg : 3 km weight without battery average daily trip distance : 138 kg : 3 km 16g-CO 2 /km current 13g-CO 2 /km EU215 target 95g-CO 2 /km EU22 target CO 2 CO emission 2 排出量 (g-co (g CO 2 /km) 2 25 2 15 5 Electricity by Japanese 電気 ( power 日本の発電所 supply ) composition Electricity by solar energy 電気 ( 太陽光発電 ) Gasoline ガソリン 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Secondary 二次電池容量 Battery (kwh) (kwh) Coefficient of CO 2 emission by electricity Country kg-co 2/kWh India 1.49 China 34 Russia.927 USA.712 UK.564 EU.42 Japan.375 France 69 PV 53 CO CO 2 emission 2 排出量 (g-co 2 /km) 2 /km) 3 25 2 15 5 Electricity by Chinese power supply composition Electricity by solar energy Gasoline Gasoline Combination of solar and PHEV shows a significant effect!!! 3m 2 of PV generates 2kWh daily, hence PV-PHEV is possible. The amount of secondary battery is more important from a viewpoint of CO 2 emission. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Secondary 二次電池容量 Battery (kwh) Vehicle's Weight Lightening Technology will Save the World! 212 Population Total Primary Energy Supply Total Final Energy Consumption 1254 million 4.19 toe/capita 2.86 toe/capita Non- 5783 million 1. toe/capita.93 toe/capita Sectional Energy Consumption of and Non- countries (toe/capita) 1.6 1.4 1.2.8.6.4.2 Self Consumption Electrical Power Generation Electric Vehicle or Optimal Hybrid Vehicle Renewable power generation Conversion loss Electricity Combustible Gas Oil Coal Raw material of plastics becomes inexpensive 1 Non 2 3 Non 4 5 Non 6 7 Non 8 9 Non Conversion Industry Transport Other Non-Energy Loss Sector Sector Sectors Use
Japanese TFC and CO2 Emission (199 21) Global Environmental and Energy Policy 環境 エネルギー技術政策 Global energy balance How to read statistics data? Long-term viewpoint Nov. 21 and 28, 217 Jun TAKAHASHI Suspect an interpretation and the data itself! How to make a policy? Quiz Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe) 38 36 3 32 3 28 Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe) CO2 Emission (Mt-C) 26 199 1995 2 38 36 3 32 3 28 26 CO2 Emission (Mt-C) Japanese TFC and CO2 Emission (1973 21) Japanese TFC and CO2 Emission (1965 21) Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe) 38 36 3 32 3 28 26 2 22 Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe) CO2 Emission (Mt-C) 287*.94=27 2 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 38 36 3 32 3 28 26 2 22 2 CO2 Emission (Mt-C) Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe) 35 3 25 2 15 287*.94=27 35 3 25 2 15 5 Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe) CO2 Emission (Mt-C) 5 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 CO2 Emission (Mt-C)
Japanese Primary Energy Consumption per Capita (toe/person) Japanese Primary Energy Consumption per Capita (toe/person) Primary Energy Consumption par Capita (toe/person) 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5.5 World 1.9 4.19 USA 6.82 Canada 7.23 Australia 5.64 Non 1.34 China 2.14 India.64 growth curve of 3.25% annual rate Average World Average Non Average 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. Primary Energy Consumption par capita (toe/person) Primary Energy consumption ( Mtoe) Population ( million) 188 189 19 19 192 193 19 195 196 197 198 199 2 2 188 189 19 19 192 193 19 195 196 197 198 199 2 2 Number of Passenger Cars in China (million) 7 6 5 3 2 Logistic Function N 1 e y ( t t ) / s m 2 2 22 23 2 25 Industrial Sector The Items of Final Energy Consumption Manufacturing Material Steel Chemicals Cement Paper and Pulp Processing/assembly Foods Textile Nonferrous metal Machines Others Non manufacturing Agriculture, Forestry & Fishery Mining Construction Residential Sector Heating Cooling Hot Water Supply Cooking Power & etc. Commercial Sector Non Energy Use Transport Sector Passenger Car (Private) Car (Commercial) Bus Airplane Ship Railway Freight Truck Airplane Ship Railway Asphalt, grease, paraffin, lubricating oil, etc.
最終エネルギー消費部門の分類 Japanese TFC by Sector (Mtoe) 産業部門 製造業 素材系 鉄鋼 化学 窯業土石 紙 パルプ 非素材系 食品煙草 繊維 非鉄金属 金属機械 その他 非製造業 農林水産業 鉱業 建設業 家庭部門 業務部門 暖房冷房給湯厨房動力 照明他 非エネルギー 運輸部門 旅客 自家用乗用車 営業用乗用車 バス 旅客航空 旅客海運 旅客鉄道 貨物 貨物自動車 貨物航空 貨物海運 貨物鉄道 アスファルト グリース パラフィン 潤滑油等 Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe) 35 3 25 2 15 5 Non-Energy Commercial Residential Transport (Freight) Transport (Passenger) Industry (Non-Manufacture) Industry (Manufacture) 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Japanese Final Energy Consumption per capita Change of TFC by Sector (in comparison with 1973) Japanese Final Energy Consumption per capita (toe/person) 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5.5 Non-energy Commercial Residential Transport (Freight) Transport (Passenger) Industry (Non-manufacture) Industry (Manufacture) 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Change of Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector 3. 2.5 2. 1.5.5 Industry (Manufacture) Industry (Non-Manufacture) Transport (Passenger) Transport (Freight) Residential Commercial Non-Energy 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Energy Consumption Structure of Japanese Transport Sector Energy Consumption in Passenger Transport (Mtoe) Energy Consumption (Mtoe) 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 car (passenger) car (commercial) bus truck air (domestic) ship (domestic) rail 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 2 Source: EDMC, Energy & Economic Statistics 215 9% is used for automobile Final Energy Consumption in Passenger Transport (Mtoe) 6 5 3 2 Car (Private) Car (Business) Bus Airplane Ship Railway 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Passenger Transport Activity (passenger kilometers) Energy Consumption per Passenger Transport Activity Passenger Transport Activity (billion passenger-kilometers) 1,6 1, 1,2 1, 8 6 2 Car (Private) Car (Business) Bus Airplane Ship Railway 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Energy Consumption per Passenger Transport Activity (goe/passenger-km) 7 Avarage Car (Private) 65 Car (Business) Bus Airplane Ship 6 Railway 55 5 45 35 3 25 2 15 5 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Energy Consumption in Freight Transport (Mtoe) Freight Transport Activity (tones kilometers) Final Energy Consumption in Freight Transport (Mtoe) 35 Truck 3 Airplane Ship 25 Railway 2 15 5 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Freight Transport Activity (billion tonne-kilometers) 6 5 3 2 Truck Airplane Ship Railway 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Energy Consumption per Freight Transport Activity Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector Energy Consumption per Freight Transport Activity (goe/ton-km) 1 12 8 6 2 Avarage Truck Airplane Ship Railway 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector / Mtoe 6 5 3 2 Power & etc. Cooking Hot water supply Heating Cooling 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector / Mtoe 2 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Cooling Heating Hot water supply Cooking Power & etc. 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector / toe par capita.45..35.3.25.2.15. 5 Power & etc. Cooking Hot water supply Heating Cooling 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Japanese Population and The Number of Households Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector Population and The Number of Households (million) 1 12 8 6 2 Population Number of Households Number per Household 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5.5 The Number Per Household Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector / toe per family 1.2.8.6..2 Power & etc. Cooking Hot water supply Heating Cooling 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector Transition of population composition of Japan Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector / toe per family..35.3.25.2.15. 5 Cooling Heating Hot water supply Cooking Power & etc. 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Japanese Populatioin / Million 1 12 8 6 2 total 15-64 after 65 195 2 25 % of after 65 year % 197 7 198 9 199 12 2 17 2 23 22 28 23 3 2 33 25 36 Student s Presentation at Nov. 28 Theme Consider effective policy to reduce world s fossil fuel consumption by using statistics shown in today s lecture or following website first. http://www.iea.org/ Then, show your assumption about technological development, i.e. electric vehicle, and introducing schedule of the technologies to our society. Evaluate the long term effect of the technologies on the reduction of fossil fuel consumption till 25 quantitatively based on your assumption. Presentation and Submission at Nov. 28 You have to make a group which consists of 3 to 5 students. Discuss well about your presentation in your group. Presentation will start from 15: Every group have to make a 15 to 2 minutes presentation by using Microsoft powerpoint. After the class, the slide (if necessary modified) which includes names of the group member have to submit by e mail to TA student. If you can t contribute any presentation, you should submit more than pages PPT file by e mail to TA student by Nov. 28.