Meeting the challenges for countrywide conservation Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Bonn, March 30 rd 2016
Global GH gases continue in full steam
Window of opportunity is closing Friedlingstein et al. 2014
Global Temperature +0.87 o. The five warmest years ever: 2005 My home 2010 2013 What to expect? 2014 2015 climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ IPCC 2001
Paris 2015 agreement: Nationally Determined Contributions?
Lessons from Brazil
Brazil is a leader in both achieving and committing to GHG reductions 2005 13.1 CO 2 eq tons.year -1.person -1 17.2 CO 2 eq tons.year -1.person -1 2015 2015 5.7 CO 2 eq tons.year -1.person -1 9.4 CO 2 eq tons.year -1.person -1 Brazil s NDC 2030? 5.4 CO 2 eq tons.year -1.person -1
The fate of the Amazon under a BAU scenario SimAmazonia. Landmark presentation of scenarios of development and conservation policies Davidson et al. 2012 Soares-Filho et al. 2006
What happened? From 2004 deforestation in the Amazon plummeted by 80%, more than 2 billion tons of CO 2 reduced from the 1996-2005 baseline. Nepstad et al. 2009
35.7 Mha 30000 km 2 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 18226 What caused this precipitous decline? 25396 27772 19014 14196 12911 7464 6400 PA expansion (from 2002 to 2009, 70 Mha were designated as new PAs)
New paradigm in PA history (green barriers) 50% of the remaining forest Effective in locally deterring deforestation without leakage Soares-Filho et al. 2010
But what else? More command and control (IBAMA, Federal policy, public prosecutors) PRODES Near-real time Enforcement teams guided up by deforestation maps Börner et al. 2014
Credit ban to municipalities in the black list Municipalities in the black list reduced deforestation from 2008 to 2010 27% more than others 30000 km 2 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 18226 25396 27772 19014 14196 12911 7464 6400 Arima et al. 2014 Black list
Soy moratorium Gibbs et al. 2015
K ha Milhares de hectares At the same time, Brazil has become the second largest producer of agricultural commodities 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 Cropland x Yields 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Área plantada ( Ha) Cropland (ha) Ton/ha Toneladas por Ha 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Soy 2013/2014 87 M tons
What can we expect? Revisions to the forest code Full reverse? Continued trend of increasing demand for agricultural products from Brazil. Production needs to increase by 40% to raise world production by 20% (OCDE 2015)
Conservation Conflicting interests Development
The forest code is the main conservation tool in Brazil Roughly 53% of Brazil s native vegetation occurs on private properties Soares-Filho et al. 2014
Level of compliance Brazil s new forest code Brazil s controversial new Forest Code grants amnesty to illegal deforesters Debt reduced by 58%, conservation requirements maintained, except for hilltop preservation areas Public lands Soares-Filho et al. 2014
Challenges for Brazil Brazil s pledge to reduce GHG (NDC) by 2030
Million CO 2 eq 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Brazil s GHG emission profile 1,438 1,434 1,653 1,861 1,998 1,485 1,211 1,060 1,134 647 592 562 462 538 486 328 339 352 372 387 392 392 383 389 396 406 418 413 418 423 298 302 298 288 303 313 318 332 350 337 368 382 418 452 479 Energy Agriculture Residues Industrial processes Land use change 60% comes from the land-use sector Seeg.org.br
Fertilizers ag. Residues Manure management, 2.10E+07 Rice Manure on soils, 8.56E+07 88% from livestock Vinasse Enteric fermentation in livestock, 2.65E+08 Field burning of ag. residues GHG in the agricultural sector Sources and sinks of GHG emissions in agriculture, forests, and other land use systems (IPCC 2006)
Develop a low carbon agriculture to compensate ag. expansion Although more efficient, emissions will increase in the energy sector due to more consumption Emissions from land use change must reduce by 70% Brazil s NDC by 2030 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 486 479 135 778 423 475 2014 2030 Mudança Land use change do uso do solo Energia Energy Agricultura Agriculture Processos industriais Industrial process (Spencer & Pierfrederici, R., 2015)
Large-scale measures relating to land use change and forests 1. Strengthen the Low Carbon Agriculture Program (ABC), including restoration of an additional 15 million ha of degraded pasturelands (totaling 30 Mha). 2. Enforcing the implementation of the Forest Code, at federal, state and municipal levels. 3. Restoring and reforesting 12 million ha of forests by 2030. 4. Zero illegal deforestation by 2030 and compensating for greenhouse gas emissions from legal suppression of vegetation by 2030.
Solving Brazil s territorial equation
million ha Million Million Billion 200 150 100 50 0 Heads Brazil 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 USA 7 23 210 39 281 222 68 Cattle ranching in Brazil 15 10 5 0 URBAN WATER PROTECTED AREAS NON DESIGNATED REMNANTS ON PRIVATE LANDS PASTURELANDS CROPS tons of beef Brazil USA 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 USS$ Brazil USA 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 head per hectare Finished in feedlots Brazil Barbosa et al. 2015 USA csr.ufmg.br/pecuaria
Brazil can expand by 50% its croplands without further deforestation World Bank 2010 Simbrasil/Otimizagro Soares-Filho et al. 2012
if cattle ranching is intensified from 1 to 1.5 head/ha World Bank 2010 Simbrasil/Otimizagro Soares-Filho et al. 2012
Meet Brazil s new conservationist A spate of publications are suggesting that cattle intensification could spare land for conservation
Based on the theory of land sparing Does it work? Green et al. 2005, Phalan et al. 2011
Mha Yield (ton/ha) Mha Yield (ton/ha) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Canada Paraguay United States Brazil Argentina There is no evidence in Brazil Sugarcane 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 EU imports 35 million tons of soy and produces less than 1 million ton a year. Others Brazil Soy 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
There is no causation relationship Deforestation is a quest for land, cattle ranching the cheapest means Bowman et al. 2012
Price p 1 67.1 Mt And there are market failures! 75.4 Mt 2014 2024 FEEDFOOD.COM.BR S 1 S 2 D 1 D 2 q 1 q Quantity 2 Plan to increase production by 40% Four companies control 43% Merry and Soares-Filho, in review
Mtons C0 2 eq 1. Restoration of 30 Mha of pasture cornerstone of Brazil s ABC and NDC policies 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 CAFO Enteric emission from cattle ranching scenarios for the state of Mato Grosso Large impact on biodiversity and increased GHG emissions
2. Enforcement of the Forest Code All properties (5.4M) must enter an online registry system (SICAR) 2-year countdown period By May 2005, 212 Mha, 54% of properties And start developing their PRA, landowners commitment to restore the FC debt.
3. Restoring and reforesting 12 million ha of forests by 2030 35.7 Mha Forest Code Debt Legal reserves + Riparian protection areas 18.5 + 5.5 = 24 Mha. Soares-Filho et al. 2014.
Too costly!! Induced restoration is costly R$ 42 million for 3 thousand ha US$ 7,000 per ha
Costs/benefits of FC compliance Azevedo, Rajão, et al, (under review)
Mtons CO 2 eq 4. End of illegal deforestation and compensating for GHG from legal deforestation by 2030 Emissions from simulated legal deforestation Sequestration by restoration of the FC debt Fallacy of zero net deforestation!
Ambitious targets but weak policies Study casts doubts on Brazil s NDC targets Rajão and Soares-Filho 2015
US$/tCO2e 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 Marginal abatement cost curve Forest Restoration Cattle intensification Deforestation reduction 18% 48% 20% 13% Forest plantation % GHG AFOLU Soy yields rely on the Amazon forest Oliveira et al. 2013
Brazil s market for trading forest Cota de Reserva Ambienta (CRA): Lower the cost of compliance
Offsetting FC debts with FC surplus (CRA) 4.2 Mha US$ 9.2 billion Rajão and Soares, 2014; Soares-Filho et al. in review
Going beyond Legal Reserve compensation Brazil s forest certificates (CRA) open the door to ecosystem service payments Rajão, Soares-Filho (2015); Soares-Filho, Rajão et al (2016)
US$ 8.4±2.0 billion to purchase low-cost CRAs could cut legal deforestation (19 Mha) in half, saving as much as 3.8±0.8 billion tons of CO 2 emissions Rajão and Soares, 2014; Soares-Filho et al. in press
Lessons for Brazil
1 Vielen Dank / Thank You / Obrigado britaldo@csr.ufmg.br Presentation and references available at www.csr.ufmg.br/~britaldo/meetingthechallenges.pdf Science in support of sound policy