International Energy Workshop, Cape Town, 28 th June 2006 Assessing Wood-Based Synthetic Natural Gas (Bio-SNG) Technologies Thorsten F. Schulz L.Barreto, S.Kypreos, S.Stucki Energy Economics Group Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) Switzerland Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 1
Methanation Plant η Bio-SNG = 0.55 η Heat = 0.10 Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 2
Reference Energy System Resource Availability and Price, Primary Energy Gas Grid Refineries Power & CHP Plants Heat Networks (Local & District) Marginal Costs H 2 Production Final Energy Capacities Agricultural Sector Commercial Sector Residential Sector Transportation Sector Industrial Sector Emissions Useful Energy (Demand) Residential Heat Energy for Mobility Process Heat Illumination Commercial Cooling Energy Flow Demand Energy Service Heated Rooms Person Kilometres Chemicals Illuminated Area Air-conditioned Workplace Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 3
Bio-SNG Implementation Biomass Methanation Plant Bio-SNG Transportation Sector Residential Sector CHP Plant Electricity and Heat All Sectors Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 4
Scope of the Analysis a) Baseline : 50 US$2000/bbl in 2050 b) Scenarios Oil Price : up to 130 US$2000/bbl in 2050 Bio-SNG Subsidies : up to 10 US$2000/GJ Combined Oil Price & Bio-SNG Subsidies Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 5
Biomass 2000 Total theoretical biomass potential ~ 100 PJ Room heating 10% Automatic firing 7% Other uses 2% Not used theoretic Unused theoretical potential potential 81% 81% Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 6
Baseline 1,600 Primary Energy Consumption [PJ] 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Unused Biomass Potential ~ 80 PJ Unused Latent Heat Geothermal Other Renewables Hydro Nuclear Electricity (net exports) Coal Oil Natural Gas Biomass - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 7
Scenario Sensitivity Analysis Baseline Primary Consumption [PJ] Biomass for Methanation 100 90 80 70 Oil Price in 2050 110 80 50 Subsidy 0 3 6 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 130 Oil price in 2050 [US$2000/GJ] 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 9 10 8 7 Subsidy [US$2000/bbl] Threshold Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 8
Oil Price - 2050 Primary Biomass Consumption [PJ] 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 100 110 120 130 Methanation Plant (Bio-SNG totransportation Sector) Methanation Plant (Bio-SNG to Residential Sector) Methanation Plant (Heat to All Sectors) CHP (>2 MWel Gasification) Conventional Biomass Technologies Oil Price in [US$2000/bbl] Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 9
Oil Price - 2050 450 Transportation Sector 400 Final Energy Consumption [PJ] 350 300 250 200 150 100 Bio-SNG Natural Gas Electricity Diesel Gasoline Avi. Gasoline 50 0 100 110 120 130 Oil Price in [US$2000/bbl] Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 10
Bio-SNG Subsidy - 2050 Primary Biomass Consumption [PJ] 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 6 7 8 9 10 Methanation Plant (Bio-SNG totransportation Sector) Methanation Plant (Bio-SNG to Residential Sector) Methanation Plant (Heat to All Sectors) Conventional Biomass Technologies Subsidies in [US$2000/GJ] Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 11
Conclusions A threshold for the penetration of wood-based synthetic natural gas technologies is clearly identifiable The use of bio-sng in the transportation sector has a larger potential than in the residential sector Synergies between bio-sng and natural gas could be exploited Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 12
Additional: Selected Resource Prices Baseline Natural Gas [US$/GJ] Crude Oil [US$/GJ] Crude Oil [US$/bbl] 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 3.3 3.6 3.8 4 4.3 4.5 4.8 5 5.2 5.5 5.7 4.6 5 5.3 5.6 6 6.3 6.7 7 7.3 7.7 8 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 50 8 7 Biomass Price [US$/GJ] 6 5 4 3 2 1 Low Price Medium Price High Price 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 13
Additional: Methanation Plant II Total Efficiency Main Product Efficiency Thermal Efficiency Capacity Investment Costs Fixed O&M Variable O&M Plant Factor Lifetime Starting year Costs Costs [%] [%] [%] [MW] [US/kW] [CHF/kW] [Rp/kWh] [hours/a] [a] [%] input input input input 65 55 10 100 996 34.9 0.125 8000 15 2010 5 Discount Rate Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 14
Additional: Chemical Reaction Methanation Air Gasification CH1.43 O0.66 + 0.17 O2 CO + 0.715 H2 Water Vapor Gasification CH1.43 O0.66 + 0.34 H2O CO + 1.055 H2 Methanation CO + 3H2 CH4 + H2O CO + H2O H2 + CO2 2CO + 2H2 CH4 + CO2 Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 15
Additional: Bio-fuel Production from Wood Wood Chips Methanation Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis Natural Gas T&D Diesel T&D CNG ICE Car Diesel ICE Car Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 16
Additional: CHP Production from Wood Methanation Natural Gas Distributed CHP Electricity Wood CHP (<2 MW) Gasification Short-Distance District Heating Heat Electricity Wood Chips Wood CHP (<2 MW) Combustion Short-Distance District Heating Heat Electricity Wood CHP (>2 MW) Gasification Long-Distance District Heating Electricity Heat Wood CHP (>2 MW) Combustion Electricity Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 17
Additional: Heat Production from Wood Methanation Gas Heating SFH Heat Wood Chip Heating (50 kw) Wood Chips Wood Chip Heating (300 kw) Short-Distance District Heating Heat Wood Chip Heating (1000 kw) Wood Pellets Production Wood Pellet Heating SFH Heat Co-Combustion in Gas Turbine Heat Pump SFH Heat Thorsten F. Schulz IEW 28.06.06 18