Innovation: A key enabler? Or a distraction from Action? Innovation and the path towards decarbonisation Jo Coleman, Strategy Director 2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. 2015 This information Energy is given Technologies in good faith based Institute upon the latest LLP information - Subject available to to notes Energy on Technologies page 1Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Many different viewpoints in an uncertain world Systems thinking and shared, robust evidence base is critical Strategic 2050 decarbonisation targets Security of supply (diversity of fuel supply and power generation capacity margin) Consumer attitudes, needs and engagement Policy Market decides EMR delivery identifies direction LCF capacity - Contracts for Difference, Capacity payments, Feed in Tariffs, etc Innovation support, Low Carbon Network fund, Common Evidence base System = power + heat + transport + infrastructures Infrastructure base is aging and unfit for future purpose Optimisation and effective linkage cuts costs, increases security and can increase consumer engagement Decisions and Actions in an uncertain world Focus on 6 priorities Recognise risks, mitigations and implications Prepare for the future - with technology, regulation, incentives
Decarbonisation pathway in the context of Increasing demand to 2050 Population: 65 to 77 million Vehicles: 28 to 35-43 million cars Housing: 26 to 38 million houses, 90% of todays housing will remain in 2050 Action to date Beginning to decarbonise power sector Increasing energy efficiency (especially in cars) UK energy system is a unique and complex set of interlinked assets and infrastructure Ageing power plants need replacing Significant wind (and marine) energy potential Significant offshore CO2 storage potential Significant opportunity for UK biomass Reasonable public support for all low carbon options But, poor housing stock and very significant heating challenge
Heat / Electricity (GW) Decarbonising heat is our biggest challenge 250 The gas grid is our biggest energy storage device 200 Heat Electricity 150 100 50 0 Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10 GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic Data source: Robert Sansom, Imperial (2011)
Heat Demand (GW) Managing peaks & system flexibility 291GW 304GW Reduce peaks +132 GW heat demand in 1 hr (0630-0730) -121 GW heat demand in 1 hr (0830-0930) Time shift 16 GW 8am 67 GW 6pm Time of Day Saturday 18 th Dec 2010 Data source: Robert Sansom, Imperial (2011)
A route to deliver 80% reduction in CO2 Power now, heat next, transport gradual cost optimal CCS and bioenergy demos operating 600 MT CO2 500 400 300 T H negative emissions through bioenergy + CCS heat emissions (buildings) reducing as domestic gas boilers swap to electric or district heating, targeted deep efficiency improvements transport is largest CO2 emitter but chart masks significant efficiency improvements 200 100 0-100 P I -80% target (nett) Bio credits negative emissions
Renewal - slow and steady Opportunities to introduce step-changes in technology or strategic direction are few Car 10-12 year life Development time 5-10 years 1 2 3 4 Domestic boiler 15-20 year life Development time 10+ years 1 2 3 Major power plant 40 year life Development time 10-20 years Plan Build Operate 1 2015 2030 2040 2050 Other major infrastructure similar to power assets, 40-100 year lives, planning phase can be 10-20+ years Lead-time for step-change in vehicle and boiler performance often driven by introduction of new standards and regulations may take 10 years
Primary fuels in System change starts slow then accelerates NOW 2030 Elec Buildings Elec B Gas Coal Industry I Liquid fuels Transport T 2050 Clockwork 2050 Patchwork Nuclear Nuclear Gas Gas Elec B I Wind Nuc Gas Elec B I Liquid fuels fuels T T
The next decade is critical in preparing for transition The UK transition is affordable (~1% of GDP) and achievable, by developing, commercialising and integrating known - but currently underdeveloped solutions We need to focus deployment on a basket of leading contender technologies Efficiency of vehicles, efficiency and low carbon heat for buildings, Nuclear, CCS, Bio, Offshore Wind, Gases (NG, H2, SNG..) Develop and prove options, prepare for widescale deployment There is enormous potential and value of CCS and bioenergy The ability (or failure) to deploy these two technologies will have a huge impact on the cost of achieving the climate change targets and the national architecture of low carbon systems and future infrastructure requirements To avoid wasting investment, crucial decisions must be made about the design of the future energy system, driven by choices on infrastructure
Incrememental Investment bn/year Preparing over the next decade is a no regrets strategy 50 40 30 20 10 Drive efficiency Technology development, demonstration and early deployment Plan supporting infrastructure Prove business models at scale Develop knowledge base for choices Build supply chains Incorporate consumer and social values Establish democratic legitimacy for decision making Finalise Plans Build infrastructure Manage transition Develop 2 nd gen technologies Complete transition Apply 2 nd gen technologies Plan for post 2050 challenges 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
What role for innovation? Deploy Known but underdeveloped technologies Drive down cost, increase performance and integrate into our energy system Regulate (eg cars) Market (eg wind turbines) Target innovation interventions (eg floating wind) Supply chain & delivery skills (eg heat solutions) Business models, policy mechanisms, consumer propositions and community engagement activities Silver bullets are rare and unpredictable
Building a shared evidence base
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