RETAINING EXISTING NUCLEAR GENERATION: THE CLIMATE CASE SESSION ON RECOGNIZING AND ADDRESSING IMPACTS OF CHANGES IN THE NUCLEAR FLEET NGA Workshop on the Future of Nuclear Power March 30, 2017
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CHALLENGE: AT-RISK NUCLEAR THREATENS PROGRESS IN ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE Power Generation in 2015 (billion kwh) Renewable Sources Nuclear Power Coal Natural Gas Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2017 Nuclear energy produces 61% of nearcarbon free generation More than half the nuclear fleet appears to be unprofitable Ideally, we would be able to count on continued operation of all near-zero carbon energy sources in addition to growth in such resources. 2
ESTIMATED CHANGES IN (NEAR-) ZERO-CARBON GENERATION (GWH) 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 estimated retired generation estimated new generation And assuming that half of nuclear capacity retires 0-50,000-100,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 EIA s AEO 2017 Reference Case without the CPP with assumed capacity factors 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0-100,000-200,000-300,000-400,000-500,000 2030 estimated retired generation estimated new generation Source of data: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2017 3
NUCLEAR ENERGY MAINLY REPLACED WITH NATURAL GAS Forecasted in business-as-usual scenarios. Observed when nuclear plants shut down and experienced unplanned outages. Concentrated Solar Power Median Lifecycle Emissions (gco2e/kwh) (IPCC 2014) Coal - PC Biomass - cofiring Gas - CC Biomass - dedicated Solar PV - Utility Solar PV - Rooftop Geothermal Hydropower Wind - Offshore Nuclear Wind - Onshore 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 4
NUCLEAR RETIREMENTS AND CARBON MITIGATION Implications for Power Sector CO 2 Emissions if half the nuclear fleet shuts down (MMTCO 2 e) Increased difficulty and cost of meeting future climate mitigation goals. 2,400 2,200 2,000 Electric Sector CO2 emissions (inventory) 1,800 EIA no-cpp Reference Scenario with forced nuclear retirements EIA no-cpp Reference Scenario 1,600 EPA's CPP 2030 estimate 1,400 EIA CPP Reference Scenario 1,200 1,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 5
NUCLEAR RETIREMENTS INCREASE THE COST OF MEETING CLIMATE GOALS (SOURCE: FTI CONSULTING) 6
SOLUTION: RETAIN NUCLEAR CAPACITY BY FIXING THE MARKET EXTERNALITIES Carbon benefits of nuclear energy are not fully valued in electric prices. Carbon price Targeted incentive to nuclear Aligning the incentives across (near-) zero-carbon electricity resources Reliability attributes of nuclear energy not consistently valued: capacity, grid support Robust capacity markets (e.g., with performance requirements and penalties) Designate nuclear as must run Are there ways to recognize ancillary benefits? 7
CONCLUSION Market solutions recognizing the benefits of nuclear energy can limit CO 2 (and CH 4 ) emissions in the nearterm, prevent investments inconsistent with long-term climate goals, support electric reliability, maintain fuel diversity and retain jobs. Affords time to plan for an equitable transition and a reliable, low-carbon energy strategy over the longterm. 8
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Giga Watts PROJECTED CHANGES IN GENERATING CAPACITY (GW) (2017-2030) 100 Annual electricity generating capacity additions and retirements Nuclear and Renewables without the Clean Power Plan 80 60 40 Renewable Sources Unplanned Additions Renewable Sources Planned Additions Planned Nuclear Additions Renewable Sources Retirements Nuclear Retirements 20 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030-20 Source: EIA s AEO 2017 Reference Case without the Clean Power Plan