The FreedomCAR Challenge and Steel Joseph A. Carpenter, Jr. Automotive Lightweighting Materials Office of FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies U.S. Department of Energy Washington, D.C. USA AISI Great Design in Steel 2004 Seminar Laurel Manor Conference and Banquet Center Livonia, Michigan February 18, 2004
Outline THE Problem (Hint: Petroleum) FreedomCAR What it Means for Steel
HISTORY 1970 (to present) In response to environmental movements of the 1960 s, the Clean Air Acts establish standards for criteria emissions (carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen and sulfur oxides) from transportation vehicles and other sources. 1975 to 1986 (and to present) - Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 establishes Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for light-duty vehicles. 1993-2002 Clinton s Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) between US government agencies and Big Three automakers indicates that high-fuel efficiency (80 mpg) family autos are probably technically viable at a slight cost premium through use of alternate power plants (mainly diesel-electric hybrids), advanced design and lightweighting materials, probably spurs automotive technology worldwide, and provides model for government-industry cooperation. 2002 - PNGV morphed by Bush to FreedomCAR (Cooperative Automotive Research) with more emphases on fuel-cell vehicles, all sorts of light-duty vehicles (not just cars) and limited to USCAR and DOE. 2003 FreedomCAR expanded to include the Hydrogen Fuels Initiative to explore technologies for producing and delivering hydrogen for transportation and other uses (the hydrogen economy ). Energy-supply industry brought in.
U.S. Energy Dependence is Driven By Transportation U.S. Oil Use for Transportation 22 Millions of Barrels per Day 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Domestic Production Off-road Marine Rail Actual Projected Air Heavy Vehicles Light Trucks Cars Passenger Vehicles 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Source: Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 22, September 2002, and EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2003, January 2003 Transportation accounts for 2/3 of the 20 million barrels of oil our nation uses each day. The U.S. imports 59% of its oil, expected to grow to 68% by 2025 under the status quo. Nearly all of our cars and trucks currently run on either gasoline or diesel fuel.
Our Oil Situation (Millions of barrels per day) Source of Oil Gross Imports 59% Domestic 41.1% 1.97 (17.1%) Consumption Highway Vehicles 68% Cost of Imports (@ $25/bbl) $105.2 Billion Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Annual 2002, Vol. 1 Other Non-OPEC 3.41 (29.6%) Mexico 1.55 (13.4%) US Domestic 8.04 Venezuela 1.4 (12.1%) Canada Nigeria 0.62 (5.4%) Other OPEC 0.58 (5%) Iraq 0.46 (4%) Saudi Arabia 1.55 (13.5%)
Can We Sustain Increasing Consumption? 30 Annual World Oil Production (Billions of Barrels) 25 20 15 10 Projected Growth in Light-Duty Vehicle Registrations 4 5 0 1930 1935 1940 1950 1960 1965 1970 1973 1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Estimates of Remaining Oil Reserves Billions of Vehicles 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Industrialized Nations World 1996 2050
Why Hydrogen?: It s abundant, clean, efficient, and can be derived from diverse domestic resources Biomass Transportation Hydro Wind Solar HIGH EFFICIENCY & RELIABILITY. Nuclear Oil Coal Natural Gas With Carbon Sequestration ZERO/NEAR ZERO EMISSIONS Distributed Generation
FY 04 Federal Share of the Budget FY04-08 Commitment ($1.7B) * Includes EERE ($82M), FE ($4.9M) and NE ($6.4M). ** Includes Omnibus Bill recision passage pending. Hydrogen Fuel Initiative $158.5M Fuel Cells ($65.2M) FreedomCAR $154.9M Hydrogen Fuel Initiative = Hydrogen* ($93.3M) + Fuel Cells ($65.2M) = $158.5M FreedomCAR Partnership = Fuel Cells ($65.2M) + Vehicle Tech. ($89.7M) = $154.9 M FY 04 FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership Hydrogen* ($93.3M) + Fuel Cells ($65.2M) + Vehicle Technologies ($89.7M) = $248.2M
FreedomCAR Vehicle Technologies Activities ($million) Vehicle Systems Ancillary Systems Simulation & Validation Innovative Concepts CARAT GATE Hybrid & Electric Propulsion Energy Storage Advanced Power Electronics Light Vehicle & Ancillary Subsystems Advanced Combustion Engines Combustion & Emission Control Automotive Propulsion Materials Automotive Lightweight Materials Fuels Technologies Advanced Petroleum Based Fuels Non-Petroleum Based Fuels & Lubes Technology Introduction Advanced Vehicle Competition Technical Program Management Support Biennial Peer Review FREEDOMCAR VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES TOTAL FY 03 Approp. $1.1 $2.4 $0.5 $0.5 $21.6 $13.4 $3.1 $18.3 $1.9 $14.2 $5.0 $0.3 $0.9 $0.9 N/a $84.1 FY 04 Approp. $1.2 $2.6 $0 $0.5 $23.4 $13.5 $3.1 $19.4 $3.0 $16.6 $3.9 $0.3 $0.9 $0.8 $0.5 $89.7 FY 05 Cong. $1.3 $3.5 $0 $0.5 $28.7 $13.9 $3.7 $13.5 $2.0 $21.0 $0 $1.4 $1.0 $0.9 N/a $91.4
2000 Timeline Strong Government R&D Role Strong Industry Commercialization Role Transitional Phases Phase I RD&D I I. Technology Development Phase Commercialization Decision Phase II Transition to the Marketplace II II. Initial Market Penetration Phase Phase III Expansion of Markets and Infrastructure III III. Infrastructure Investment Phase Phase IV 2010 2020 Realization of the Hydrogen Economy 2030 2040 IV IV. Fully Developed Market and Infrastructure Phase
Potential Hydrogen Technology Transition Pathway Requirements & Impacts Analysis (OFCVT & OHFCIT) Fuel Cell Technology Technology Development and Validation (OFCVT, OHFCIT & Industry) System Development & Validation (OFCVT and Industry) H 2 Fuel Fuel Cell Hybrid Hydrogen Engines, Production & Storage Technology H 2 Fuel Advanced ICE Hybrid Advanced Fuels & Engine Technology Transitional Liquid Fuels Advanced ICE Hybrid Power Electronics & Gasoline/Diesel Energy Storage Technology ICE Hybrid Gasoline/Diesel ICE Conventional FreedomCAR Goals
2010 FreedomCAR Technology Specific Goals Efficiency Power Energy Cost* Life Weight Fuel Cell System 60% (hydrogen) 45% (w/ reformer) 325 W/kg 220 W/L $45/kW (2010) $30kW (2015) Hydrogen Fuel/ Storage/ Infrastructure 70% well to pump 2 kw-h/kg 1.1 kw-h/l $5/kW-h $1.25/gal (gas equiv.) Electric Propulsion >55 kw 18 s 30 kw cont. $12/kW peak 15 years Electric Energy Storage 25 kw 18 s 300 W-hW $20/kW 15 years Materials Same Same 50% less Engine Powertrain System** 45% peak $30/kW 15 years * Cost references based on CY2001 dollar values ** Meets or exceeds emissions standards.
Weight Savings and Costs for Automotive Lightweighting Materials Lightweight Material Material Replaced Mass Reduction (%) Relative Cost (per part)* High Strength Steel Mild Steel 10 1 Aluminum (AI) Steel, Cast Iron 40-60 1.3-2 Magnesium Steel or Cast Iron 60-75 1.5-2.5 Magnesium Aluminum 25-35 1-1.5 Glass FRP Composites Steel 25-35 1-1.5 Graphite FRP Composites Steel 50-60 2-10+ Al matrix Composites Steel or Cast Iron 50-65 1.5-3+ Titanium Alloy Steel 40-55 1.5-10+ Stainless Steel Carbon Steel 20-45 1.2-1.7 * Includes both materials and manufacturing. Ref: William F. Powers, Advanced Materials and Processes, May 2000, pages 38 41.
Material Use in Some PNGV Concept Vehicles Table 3. M aterial Use in PNGV Vehicles (lbs.) Material 1994 Base Vehicle P2000 ESX2 Plastics 223 270 485 Aluminum 206 733 450 Magnesium 6 86 122 Titanium 0 11 40 Ferrous 2168 490 528 Rubber 138.5 123 148 Glass 96.5 36 70 Lexan 0 30 20 G lass fiber 19 0 60 Carbon Fiber 0 8 24 Lithium 0 30 30 Other 391 193 273 Total Weight 3248 2010 2250 Source: Ducker 1998
Conclusions PNGV and FreedomCAR stimulated automotive technologies. Provided successful example to USA of public/private partnership to better define options. FreedomCAR and Hydrogen Fuel Initiative launched to explore the hydrogen economy. These and other factors put pressure on steel s dominance as the major automotive structural material. The ultimate factors will likely be economic and political.
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy http://www.eere.energy.gov Bringing you a prosperous future where energy is clean, abundant, reliable, and affordable
Back-up Slides
The Oil Imbalance 64% Nations that HAVE oil Saudi Arabia 26.4% Iraq 11.5% Kuwait 9.8% Iran 9.6% UAE 6.3% Russia 5.4% Venezuela 4.7% Libya 3.0% China 3.0% Mexico 2.7% Nigeria 2.4% U.S. 2.2% Nations that NEED oil U.S. 24.9% Japan 7.3% China 6.4% Germany 3.7% Russia 3.4% S. Korea 2.9% Brazil 2.9% France 2.7% India 2.7% Canada 2.6% Italy 2.5% Mexico 2.5% Source: EIA International Petroleum Information, December 2002. Data for 2000
World Fossil Fuel Potential Source: H. H. Rogner, An Assessment of World Hydrocarbon Resources, Annual Review of Energy and Environment, 1997.
Renewable Resources are Adequate to Meet all Energy Needs GJ per capita 1000 800 Source: adapted from UN 2000, WEC 1994, and ABB 1998. Figures based on 10 billion people. 600 400 Hydro Wind Demand Range 200 0 N. America S. America Europe FSU Africa Middle East & N. Africa Asia Total Solar Geothermal Biomass
Oil and Substitute Costs 2000 $ per boe 20 15 10 5 Produced at 1.1.2000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 billion barrels of oil equivalent Source:Shell, 2000 Unconventional Oil 3500 4000
Life Cycle Comparisons of Cost, Energy Use, and Carbon Emissions 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Cost x $10,000 Energy use MJ/m Carbon x 10 gc/km '96 Camry 2020 evol. adv bod gas adv bod dies adv bod FT gas hybrid dies hybrid FT hybrid gas FC methanol FC H2 FC Electr Source: On the Road in 2020, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Report # MIT EL 00-003, October 2000
HFCIT Fuel Cell Activities ($million) FY 03 Approp. FY 04 Approp. FY 05 Cong. Transportation Systems $6.1 $7.5 $7.6 * Distributed Energy Systems $7.3 $7.4 $7.5 Fuel Processor R&D $23.5 $14.8 $14.0 Stack Component R&D $14.8 $25.2 $30.0 Technology Validation $1.8 $9.9 $18.0 Technical Program Management Support $0.4 $0.4 $0.4 Fuel Cell Technology Total $53.9 $65.2 $77.5 * Distributed Energy Systems R&D was not included in the FreedomCAR Partnership in FY 2003.
HFCIT Hydrogen Activities ($million) FY 03 Approp. FY 04 Approp. FY 05 Cong. Production & Delivery R&D (EE) $11.2 $22.6 $25.3 Storage R&D (EE) $10.8 $29.4 $30.0 Safety, Codes & Standards, and Utilization (EE) $4.5 $5.9 $18.0 Infrastructure Validation (EE) $9.7 $18.4 $15.0 Education and Cross-cutting Analysis (EE) $1.9 $5.7 $7.0 EE Hydrogen Technology Subtotal $38.1 $82.0 $95.3 * With the exception of Education and Cross-cutting Analysis, portions of all other lines were not included in the FreedomCAR Partnership in FY 2003. ** Hydrogen activities will be part of the new FreedomFuel initiative to be implemented beginning in FY 2005.
Sponsored by: American Iron and Steel Institute