OTC 2007 Modeling Platform 1
Photochemical Modeling CMAQ4.71 with CB05 chemistry WRF 3.1 (Weather Research Forecast) simulated 2007 Meteorology Modeling domain: 12 km Eastern U.S. Climatological time-invariant Clean boundary conditions Level 2 emission inventory. 2
2007 Level2 Emission Inventory OTC incl VA SEMAP excl VA LADCO CENRAP CANADA Area MARAMA 2007 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 OME 2005 MAR MARAMA 2007 Included with EPA NEI2008 v1.5 area/nonroad/nonegu point Included with EPA NEI2008 v1.5 area/nonroad/nonegu point Included with EPA NEI2008 v1.5 area/nonroad/nonegu point OME 2005 Nonroad MARAMA 2007 SEMAP 2007 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 OME 2005 C3MV (Cat 3 Marine Vessels) EPA CHIEF 2005 EPA CHIEF 2005 EPA CHIEF 2005 EPA CHIEF 2005 EPA CHIEF 2005 Non EGU Point MARAMA 2007 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 OME 2005 EGU Point MARAMA 2007 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 OME 2005 Mobile MARAMA 2007 SMOKE/MOVES EPA 2007 national inventory mode MOVES run, gasoline PM emissions temperature-adjusted LADCO 2007/2008 default inputs inventory mode MOVES run EPA 2007 national OME 2005 (Canadian inventory mode MOVES MOBILE6 Activity and Input run, gasoline PM emissions Data) temperature-adjusted Biogenic MEGAN MEGAN MEGAN MEGAN MEGAN Anthropogenic Chlorine EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform N/A Oceanic Chlorine EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform OME 2005 - The latest available inventories for Canada from the Ontario Ministry of the Environment.
150 Daily Maximum 8-Hour Ozone over OTR 125 100 Model (ppb) 75 50 25 0 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Observation (ppb) The scatter plot shows a performance for daily 8-hour maximum ozone for ozone season over OTR. Model performed well in capturing the observed ozone greater than 75 ppb. 4
Mean Bias (MB) for Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone, April 15 October 30, AQS Monitors over OTC states. Higher bias occurred around coast areas. 5
Correlation Coefficient for Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone, April 15 October 30, AQS Monitors over OTC states. 6
Time Series of Spatially Averaged Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone April 15 October 30, All AQS Monitors within the OTC States 100 90 DailyMax 8HR O3, Average over OTC AQS monitors AQS-8hrmax CMAQ-8hrmax-L2 # of Site: 215 State: OTC 80 70 O3 (ppb) 60 50 40 30 20 May June July Aug Sept Oct Date The timing of episodes is generally captured, but model prediction tends to be overestimated
Summary Overall the model performed well and was compatible to the previous 2002 SIP modeling. The 2007 platform level 2 still overpredicted observed ozone concentrations. Next will show the comparison for various species at Pfizer Lab, NY site. 8
120 Ozone Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ 100 80 Concentration (ppb) 60 40 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour CMAQ captured the observed ozone diurnal variation and tended to overpredict the observed peak and underestimated observed morning and afternoon ozone. 9
Concentration (ppbc) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 Total NMHC Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ Compare with PAMS Total NMHC measurements. Lump PAMS NMHC according to CB05 chemistry. CMAQ overpredicted morning and afternoon observed value. 300 200 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour 10
80 70 60 Isoprene Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ Double peaks feature in CMAQ are not in the Observed. Concentration (ppbc) 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour 11
300 NOx Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ 250 200 Concentration (ppb) 150 100 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour CMAQ overpredicted NOx at Pfizer Lab monitor. 12
25 SO2 Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ 20 Concentration (ppb) 15 10 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour For SO2, CMAQ captured the observe diurnal but higher than observed values. 13
2500 CO Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ 2000 Concentration (ppb) 1500 1000 500 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour 14
MODEL SENSITIVITY 15
Level 2 Screening Runs Base Case Scenario 4 Case 48% NOx and 23% VOC Reduction Bounding Case 68% NOx and 23% VOC Reduction Bounding Case For bounding runs, reductions were applied uniformly to all sectors and entire modeling domain For scenario 4 run: Domain-wide NOx reductions on point (65%) and on on-read (70%) sectors, domain-wide 30% VOC reductions on point and on-road sectors. Extra 5% NOx reduction on OTR only 16
Scenario 4 Approximates OTC s recommendations for onroad mobile and EGUs Uses best available 2020 data except where noted Domain-Wide NO X Reductions Point: 65% from 2007 Estimate of CSAPR 1 & CSAPR 2 Onroad: 70% from 2007 Estimate of Tier 2 fleet turnover & Tier 3 in 2017 Domain-Wide VOC Reductions 30% EGU & On-road sectors from 2007 OTR Only: Extra 5% NO X 17
Selected Screening Run Design Monitor Values 2005 09 N48/V23 Sc. 4 N68/V23 Bayonne NJ 85 82 80 76 White Plains NY 86 77 73 69 Camden NJ 88 77 73 67 Bristol PA 90 77 72 66 Greenwich CT 86 76 72 66 Babylon NY 88 75 71 65 NEA PA 88 75 70 64 NYC-Queens NY 86 74 72 71 Clarksboro NJ 86 74 69 63 Edgewood MD 91 71 66 57 Chicopee MA 88 70 65 58 NOTE: A full set or results were provided in the binder 2/17/2012 18
Relative Ozone Reductions N48/V30 (10% Less) Scenario 4 N68/V30 (10% More) -3% 3% 9% 15% 21% 27% 33% Ozone reductions from Scenario 4 run generally between 15 and 25% from the base case NO X focused emission reductions show less benefit for urban core areas 19
Observed 8-Hr Daily Maximum Ozone DVC (Average of 05-07, 06-08, and 07-09 DV) Estimated DVF Scenario 4 2007 Level 2 Platform. (DVC x RRF) 20
Differences (in ppb) Scenario 4 to 10% More NOx Reduction The benefit of the Scenario 4 to the less NO X (N48V23) reduction was in the inner OTR region With further NO X reduction (N68V23) from Scenario 4, would show larger benefit in the coast and west of New York areas with dense emission
2007 platform applications Carnegie Mellon University used 2007 platform to study oil and gas emission. NYS used 2007 platform to modeling Marcellus Shale emission. Model SO2 background. 22
Next Step Update emission inventories - MARAMA version 3 inventory and 2007 emission from other RPOs. Time-variant boundary conditions base on Geos_Chem global model. 23