University of Kentucky UKnowledge Presentations 10-2009 Market Situation and Outlook for Hogs, Poultry and Small Ruminants A. Lee Meyer University of Kentucky, lmeyer@uky.edu Click here to let us know how access to this document benefits you. Follow this and additional works at: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_present Part of the Commons, and the Animal Sciences Commons Repository Citation Meyer, A. Lee, "Market Situation and Outlook for Hogs, Poultry and Small Ruminants" (2009). Presentations. 12. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_present/12 This Presentation is brought to you for free and open access by the at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in Presentations by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact UKnowledge@lsv.uky.edu.
Market Situation and Outlook for Hogs, Poultry and Small Ruminants Lee Meyer Extension Marketing Specialist Agricultural Economics
Global Meat Situation Trade Exchange Rate Roller Coaster Dollar increased 25% in value against Brazil s real, hurting U.S. sales, but then dropped back Dollar vs. the Yen, dropped from 110 (Dec. 08) to 92 (Oct. 09) US products more expensive Increasing world incomes will increase demand for meat products (+5%, $900 m) Ag balance of trade continues to improve
Broiler Market Overview Production costs up 4% prod. drop Steady 09 prices (~$.80), mixed parts prices (wings up, weak breast meat prices) For 2010 prod up 2%, modest price improvement Trade competition from Brazil, increases may depend on the world economy
Mil. Pounds 780 BROILER PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Ready-to-Cook Weight, By Month, Weekly Averages 760 740 720 700 680 660 640 620 600 Avg. 2003-07 2008 2009 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
Agricultural Economics Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
Agricultural Economics Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
Prices down due to 6% increase in production Agricultural Economics Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
Prices $48/cwt. now $66/cwt. year ago Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
$/Head 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 IOWA MARKET HOG PROFIT Farrow/Finish, Monthly Monthly 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Iowa State University Iowa Market Hog Profit Latest Data: August 2009 Breakeven Price low $50s/cwt. 10/15/09
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
Year Ky. Goats 1,000 hd. U.S. Goats 1,000 hd. Ky. Sheep 1,000 hd. U.S. Sheep 1,000 hd. 2004 63 2,044 26 6,105 2005 64 2,150 32 6,135 2006 68 2,287 35 6,230 2007 74 2,402 37 6,165 2008 81 2,500 37 6,055 3,070 5,750 2009 73 40
Lamb Prices * Nationally, about $.90/lb * slightly stronger in 2010 * import more than ½ the product * Ky. lamb often sold locally
220 660 SHEEP & LAMB NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2009 (1000 Head) 53 67 210 150 Other States 130 290 U.S. Total 5747 255 420 120 410 88 305 71 80 870 80 140 200 83 85 58 50 78 34 40 130 33 100 75 28 62 New England States MD 24 200 to 870 (10) 80 to 200 (10) 50 to 80 (8) 24 to 50 (11) 48 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS S-N-05 03/06/09
GOAT PRICES New Holland, PA 40-60 lb. Selection #2 Kids ($/head) 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 2007 2008 2009 Season Index 20.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec