REPORT FROM ICP WORKSHOP (International Cooperative Programme on Modelling and Mapping of Critical Loads and Levels and Air Pollution Effects, Risks and Trends) CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANS-BOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION 18-21 April 2011, Bilthoven, The Netherlands Linda Pardo, US Forest Service
Outline Overview of US submission of data Issues for Relevant topics of discussion from meeting
Call for data New deposition mapping scale (5 km x 5 km) New values for Empirical CL for N Linking the Very Simple Dynamic Model (VSD+) to a simple vegetation model (VEG)
US Submission presented Surface water CL for S+N Forest soils CL S+N Empirical CL Ecoregion based (Pardo et al. 2011) Lichens model (Geiser et al. 2010)
Aggregation issues Multiple values for the same grid cell: different habitats When mapping, aggregate: 95 th percentile average area-weighted average
J12 12 km 1 1 12 x 12 km Grid Single value 12 km Multiple values where EcoRegions intersect the grid 2 1 I12
Aggregation issues Which value to use: average, range, min Multiple calculations (crit thresholds) Multiple receptors (organisms) Multiple values (different studies) for the same grid cell: average, area-weighted average, min, range, best
Background for Empirical N CLs Based on Pardo et al. in press synthesis By ecoregion Ecoregions Level 1 Map (CEC, EPA) 4 main receptors Mycorrhizal fungi Lichens Herbaceous species and shrubs Forest ecosystems Based on empirical lichens model (Geiser et al. 2010)
Commission for Environmental Cooperation. 1997
Empirical N Critical loads (kg/ha/yr) Pardo et al. 2011 Ecoregion I Fungi Lichens Herbaceous Forests Tundra 1-3 1-3 Taiga 5-7 1-3 6 Northern Forests 5-7 4-6 >7 - <21 >3 - <26 NW Forested Mtns. 5-10 2.5-7.1 4-10 4-17 Marine West Coast 5 2.7-9.2 5 Eastern Temperate Forests 5-12 4-8 <17.5 >3-8 Great Plains 12 5-25 NA Deserts 3 3-8.4 Mediterranean CA 7.8-9.2 3-6 6-33 17-39 Temperate Sierras 4-7 Tropical Wet Forest <5-10
Empirical N Critical loads (kg/ha/yr) Pardo et al. 2011 Ecoregion I Fungi Lichens Herbaceous Forests Tundra 1 1 Taiga 5 1 6 Northern Forests 5 4 >7 >3 NW Forested Mtns. 5 2.5 4 4 Marine West Coast 5 2.7 5 Eastern Temperate Forests 5 4 <17.5 >3 Great Plains 12 5 NA Deserts 3 3 Mediterranean CA 7.8 3 6 17 Temperate Sierras 4 Tropical Wet Forest <5 -Red indicate value used
Empirical N Critical loads (kg/ha/yr) Pardo et al. 2011 Ecoregion I Fungi Lichens Herbaceous Forests Mean Tundra 1 1 1 Taiga 5 1 6 4 Northern Forests 5 4 >7 >3 4.2 NW Forested Mtns. 5 2.5 4 4 3.9 Marine West Coast 5 2.7 5 4.2 Eastern Temperate Forests 5 4 <17.5 >3 7.4 Great Plains 12 5 8.5 NA Deserts 3 3 3 Mediterranean CA 7.8 3 6 17 8.4 Temperate Sierras 4 4 Tropical Wet Forest <5 5
Aggregation issues Which value to use: average, range, min Multiple calculations (crit thresholds) Multiple receptors (organisms) Multiple values (different studies) for the same grid cell: average, area-weighted average, min, range, best
Issues to consider 1. Other ecosystem types besides forests for CL S+N shrubs, grasslands, wetlands 2. What is total ecosystem area (by ecosystem type)? what % are ecosystems of total country area? 3. Show CL/exceedance as cumulative frequency distribution 4. Mapping 95 th percentiles
Issues to consider cont d 5. Cost benefit analysis (human health, work loss hours etc.)other ecosystem types besides forests for CL S+N 6. Border issues work with Canada to make border less visible 7. Country reports review others in considering what a US country report would look like 8. Documenting work that was done (and to dos)
Issues to consider cont d 9. Biodiversity modelling 10. Data necessary for assessing vegetation response to N (Ellenberg values) 11. VSD+ VEG modelling
Next Steps Refining Empirical N CL Geiser model Ecoregion approach improving ability to determine where within the CL range a given site is likely to fall Refinements for CL S+N Critical thresholds Data sources Aggregation Issues Dynamic modelling