Corporation Heavy Duty Transport Fuel Options Innovative Solutions for Transportation and Energy CAPCOA 30 Aug. 2010 Paul B. Scott pscott@isecorp.com
ISE has pioneered in electric drive heavy duty vehicle development Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 2
Hybrid-Electric Drive a Preference for Transit Fleets Chicago Fleet 10 diesel-hybrid buses, showing a 40% fuel saving as compared to conventional diesels, Long Beach the largest fleet of ISE buses, with 98 gasoline hybrids Whistler Village, British Columbia, with 20 fuel cell buses in a village fleet of 27 buses. Las Vegas operates the streamlined Streetcar, a high power 60 electric flex-bus which is designed as Bus Rapid Transit In 2009 over 30% of transit bus orders included hybrid drive Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 3
Clean Transportation, our part of CleanTech, key: To Jobs: + Analysis indicates that an average of 36,000 jobs are supported for one year, per billion dollars of annual spending on public transportation. http://files.eesi.org/apta_jobs_102209.pdf + Clean transport uses clean fuel present imports of 20Mbbl oil/day represent an outflow of $1.6B/day we need massive investment in Made in the USA fuel + Electricity, hydrogen are such USA fuels. Investment of an incremental daily expenditure of $0.02B/day (over the next 15 years) are needed to provide a network of hydrogen as well as electrical fuel providers. (National Academy of Science studies, 2008-2009) To clean air, To GHG reduction (40% of our GHG in CA are from transport) To National Security Economic and Military Zero Emission Transportation from Home Fuels is the Future: Offers a pathway to public transport with USA sourced fuel keeping money/jobs in USA Any of the electric drive NG fueled options provide long term cost savings, FCB Provides best use of natural resources. Double-triple the distance per unit natural gas Federal investment at substantial billion dollar - levels would foster clean transport across the nation (in past year 2.4 billion of the 16.7 billion passing through DOE EERE have been directed at transportation electrification & battery manufacturing) Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 4
Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 5
Transit Fuel Choices for Hybrid Electric Drive: Diesel Hybrid + Conventional, + increasingly difficult, due to need of emissions controls + imported fuel are we assured of no interruption in supply? Gasoline hybrid + cleaner/easier less chemistry on the bus + Certified alternative fuel for use in California with hybrid bus Natural Gas hybrid + lower carbon content than diesel or gasoline + heavier, due to fuel tankage + domestic fuel, at low cost Electricity a ZEV alternative + electric fuel, quiet, made in the USA + simplest implementation of ISE electric drive architecture + stringent battery requirements! (more severe for heavy vehicles), limited range, -- are batteries durable? Hydrogen, (with hybrid drive) a second ZEV alternative fuel + fuel made in the USA + low GHE, + range can be over 300 miles + vehicle will be heavy but very clean + quiet! But high capital cost. + fully capable for transit application volume production will yield cost reduction Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 6
Planned new developments in NG Clean Fuel Buses Natural gas hybrid electric to meet 2010 standards + Ford 6.8 Liter, 140kW, freeway speed capable + Heavy Duty Urban Bus certified, NG fueled, + Ultra-capacitor electrical energy storage, efficient, durable, or battery dominant + Expect improved fuel economy, low emissions Inner City Option: a small engine, large battery + Expected further improved efficiency, + Quiet, quasi-electric bus operation, engine off at stops + engine will be used to maintain battery charge + Both buses will have NG storage to meet 300 mile range Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 7
Choices in Zero Emissions buses: Fuel Cell Hybrid Electric + More developed and more complex technology, + no practical range limitation, + 10 minute fueling + 12 companies worldwide compete to provide hydrogen fueled buses + Orders, production of hundred bus lots to result in substantial price reduction. Battery bus: + Simplest architecture, awaiting battery cost reduction to be competitive. + Range is limited, but with single midday charge this bus could serve 40% of bus routes. + Or with smaller battery, frequent charging, attractive and appropriate for selected locations Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 8
World s largest fleet of fuel cell buses in operation at Whistler Village 20 buses meeting the daily needs of the Olympic Winter Games Range of 200-300 mi on 46 kg hydrogen, dependent on heating demands Certified to Canadian road and safety standards This bus carries up to 70 passengers, speed in excess of 60 mph Quiet, hybrid drive, capability of 20% grade climb Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 9
Lightweight FC Bus with superb fuel economy Seats 37, + 12 standing 75kW FC, Ultra-capacitor Energy Storage System Maximum GVW 14,660 kg Fuel use on test track =.04-.069kg/km(9-15 mi/kg), range of 666 km or more. To go into service late 2010 Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 10
PROJECTED FUEL PRICES 12 Projected fuel prices Diesel Price, 9% esc. [$/gallon] Hydrogen Price[$/gge] EIA Diesel Projected 10 Price [$/gallon or $/gge] 8 6 4 2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year Hydrogen fuel price projection is taken from National Academy Press report Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies a Focus on Hydrogen, 2008 Diesel price escalation at 9% per year from $3/gal (4/19/ 10 EIA California diesel @3.23/gal, as compared in 3.27 in projection) Energy Information Administration (USDOE) published projection of diesel price at bottom Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 11
Life Cycle cost gives advantage to fuel saving technologies: Will the fiduciary find the declining hydrogen price, increasing diesel price believable? T h o u s a n d s F u e l c o s t p e r y e a r [k $ /y e a r ] 120 100 80 60 40 20 Fuel cost per year 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year Diesel Price, 9% escal. Hydrogen EIA Diesel Projected Hybrid Diesel Conv.CNG Hybrid CNG Purchase price $531,000 $410,000 591,000 1,800,000 Cost after USA subsidy 90,270 82,000 100,470 306,000 Fuel cost/gge 2010 2.3 1.08^ 1.08 4.75-15 Miles/GGE 4.2 2.4 3.36 7 fuel cost$/mile 2010 0.55 0.45 0.32 1 Ann fuel cost 2010 27,380 22,557 16,071 50,000 FCB Fuel cost is major to transit agencies, second only to labor: Diesel cost above in yellow is USDOE Energy Information Agency estimate Estimate in blue includes a 9%/year escalation, in accord with experience over the past decade. The magenta curve, from a US National Academy Study, estimates hydrogen cost as affected by the expected introduction of large numbers of hydrogen cars and the infrastructure needed for fueling hydrogen vehicles. 12 year fuel cost* 550,340 453,396 323,029 300,000 12 year cost to agency $640,610 $535,396 $423,499 606,000 CO 2 reduction 28% Baseline 29% 49% (Ca 65%) *50,000 mi/yr, carbon fuel price escalates @ 9%/yr ^CNG fuel price includes 50 cent federal subsidy Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 12
Life Cycle cost gives advantage to fuel saving technologies: Conv.CNG Hybrid CNG FCB Battery Bus Purchase price $410,000 591,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Cost after subsidy 82,000 100,470 255,000 170,000 Fuel cost/gge 2010 1.08^ 1.08 4.75 10 cents/kwh Miles/GGE 2.4 3.36 7 0.4mi/kwh fuel cost/mile 2010 0.45 0.32 0.68 0.25 Ann fuel cost 2010 20,301 14,464 30535 11250 12 year fuel cost* 408,055 290,732 366,428 226,125 12 year cost to agency 490,055 391,202 621,428 396,125 CO 2 reduction Baseline 29% 49%(Ca 65%) 54% *45,000 mi/yr, carbon fuel price, electricity escalates @ 9%/yr, ^CNG fuel price includes 50 cent federal subsidy Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 13
Next big challenge-renewably sourced fuel: Zero Carbon Fuel at Acceptable Cost AQMD funded program illustrated above demonstrated feasibility, projected that renewable (wind) hydrogen in megawatt (50+ buses) scale may be lower cost than diesel. Confirmed by GE, NREL Many pathways to sustainably sourced hydrogen Made in USA Providing Energy Solutions for a Cleaner Environment 14