Trends in VMT Growth and Implications for Modeling and Planning NYSAMPO Modeling Working Group Chris O Neill, CDTC June 19, 2017 Revised August 3, 2017
At the June 19 meeting of the NYSAMPO Modeling Working Group, the following two graphs of VMT growth in New York State were presented. The second graph showed a noticeable increase in VMT from 2015 to 2016. Further analysis was requested to explain this increase.
Source: HPMS
Source: HPMS
Subsequent to the June 19 meeting of the Modeling Working Group, further discussions with NYSDOT indicated that there was a significant change in the way VMT was estimated for non-federal Aid VMT on the Rural Local, Urban Local, and Rural Minor Collector roadways in 2016. The following two graphs show VMT for Federal Aid roads only, in order to better understand the trends in VMT growth independent of VMT calculation methodology. The graphs of Federal Aid roads indicate low growth in VMT from 2015 to 2016. The conclusion is that VMT growth continues to be relatively flat in New York State through 2016 and there is no indication of a resurgence in previous rapid VMT growth.
Source: HPMS
Source: HPMS
VMT Growth-Source: Advisor Perspectives http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/dot-miles-traveled.php
VMT Growth-Source: Advisor Perspectives http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/dot-miles-traveled.php
VMT Growth-Source: Advisor Perspectives http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/dot-miles-traveled.php
FHWA Forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): May 2016 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/tables/vmt/vmt_forecast_sum.pdf These forecasts are lower than those that were published by FHWA in May 2015.
FHWA VMT forecasts are comparable in growth rate to national population growth forecasts. Should MPOs consider developing VMT forecasts that correspond to population growth rates forecast for the MPO? Gasoline prices are the wild card, but there is no way to forecast gasoline prices. FHWA seems to be indicating that assuming continued slow growth in VMT per capita, comparable to the rate of population growth, is acceptable.
Source: Washington Post. 2015 Forecast added from FHWA Forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): May 2015 2015 Forecast
Variables that affect travel behavior: 1. Millennials are preferring to own less cars and drive less. 2. Increasing popularity of cities and walkable neighborhoods. 3. The internet/mobile technology is replacing many trips. 4. As baby boomers retire, their auto travel may decline, especially in the commuting peak hours. 5. The popularity of transit increasing: smart fares, universities providing free transit for students, real time information, bus rapid transit, real time information, discovery of transit during the recession. 6. New options: carsharing, bike sharing, taxi-booking, services, and real-time ride sharing 7. The price of energy (gas, CNG, electric, renewables) impossible to forecast for 2040. 8. Automated vehicles 9. Scenario Planning incorporates uncertainty into the process
Forecasting VMT is uncertain; we don t have a crystal ball; but recent trends make it hard to defend assuming high VMT growth rates of the past. One solution can be scenario planning- what are the implications of different scenarios of VMT growth NHTS should give us another important snapshot for model calibration- NYSDOT conducted a dialogue with the MWG in planning the NHTS last year.