Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City Cattle Situation and Outlook Tim Petry Livestock Economist www.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics September 24, 2013 MktClub-2013.pptx
Livestock Price and Production Patterns 1. Seasonal 3. Long term 2. Cycle 4. Unexpected LFTB
Is the Cattle Cycle Dead? When will beef cow slaughter decline? When will beef herd rebuilding start?
BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2007-11 2012 2013 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-34 09/20/13
Mil. Head 7.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S. 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 C-N-38 02/04/13 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S. 40 35 30 25 20 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Livestock Marketing Information Center; Data Source: USDA/NASS C-N-30 02/04/13
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, ND Thousand Head 250 200 150 100 50 0 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2012 TO JANUARY 2013 (1000 Head) 4-20 50 60 10 1-10 -5-1 41-5 -15-20 -44-45 78-5 -79 30 29-119 -100-24 -58 0-550 2 4-5 -10-4 33 5 22-38 4-10 1-22 -32-10 -550 to -15-15 to -1-1 to 4 4 to 79 VT 2 NH -1 MA -1 RI 0 CT 2 NJ 1 DE 1 MD -2-8 U.S. Total: -862 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 02/04/13
NOV FC vs DEC CORN 2012
NOV FC vs DEC CORN 2013
Omaha Corn Prices Weekly $ per bu 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 JAN APR JUL OCT 2013 2012 2011 Avg. 2006 010 Avg. 2002 06 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA AMS G P 02
MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES 550 600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 JAN APR JUL OCT 2013 2012 2011 2007 2011 AVG
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES 750 800 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
SF_LS764 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Sep 19, 2013 USDA-ND Dept Ag Market News Napoleon Livestock Auction Inc. Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 09/19/2013 Receipts: 1568 Last Week: 913 Year Ago: 2293 Compar4ed to last week: Good run of yearling steers and heifers off grass. Steers too lightly tested last week to offer a comparison but had a firm undertone. Heifers were steady with 750 to 800 lb. 3.00 higher. Good demand for all classes of feeders today. 97 percent over 600 lbs. Receipts were 68 percent steers and 32 percent heifers. Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price 20 585-599 591 168.00-172.00 169.82 Yearlings 25 603-615 607 169.00-171.00 169.96 60 696-697 697 166.50-171.00 170.25 116 713-740 725 160.00-169.00 165.54 81 772-795 791 158.75-164.25 159.61 277 807-848 823 157.25-159.50 157.58 70 855 855 157.20 157.20 204 901-920 910 150.00-154.50 153.78
SF_LS764 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Sep 19, 2013 USDA-ND Dept Ag Market News Napoleon Livestock Auction Inc. Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 09/19/2013 Receipts: 1568 Last Week: 913 Year Ago: 2293 Feeder Heifers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price 18 538-540 539 159.50-160.00 159.69 Yearlings 46 612-644 636 155.50-159.50 157.18 107 664-691 681 154.50-155.75 155.42 167 753-761 758 151.75-156.50 154.55 5 845 845 147.50 147.50 40 867-880 874 146.75-148.50 147.37 7 922 922 141.50 141.50
CME Feeder Cattle Index 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 9/1/05 11/1/05 1/1/06 3/1/06 5/1/06 7/1/06 9/1/06 11/1/06 1/1/07 3/1/07 5/1/07 7/1/07 9/1/07 11/1/07 1/1/08 3/1/08 5/1/08 7/1/08 9/1/08 11/1/08 1/1/09 3/1/09 5/1/09 7/1/09 9/1/09 11/1/09 1/1/10 3/1/10 5/1/10 7/1/10 9/1/10 11/1/10 1/1/11 3/1/11 5/1/11 7/1/11 9/1/11 11/1/11 1/1/12 3/1/12 5/1/12 7/1/12 9/1/12 11/1/12 1/1/13 3/1/13 5/1/13 7/1/13 9/1/13 16% 21% 19% 22% 10%? +17% 19% 0%
Price 750. lb. Steer Profit from Backgrounding $174 Calves 550 lb. to 750 lb. ADG = 2.77 lbs. 72 Days on Feed (Example: Oct. 30 Jan. 11) $/Head Corn ($/bu.) ($/cwt) 3.50 3.70 3.90 4.10 4.30 4.50 150 24 21 17 13 9 5 155 60 56 53 49 45 41 160 96 92 89 85 81 77 165 132 128 125 121 117 113 170 168 164 161 157 153 149
$ Per Cwt. SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 JAN APR JUL OCT 2014 Futures 2013 Futures 2013 2012 2011 Avg. 2006-2010 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS
Mil. Head 2.7 FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly 2.5 2.3 Avg. 2007/11 2.1 1.9 2012 1.7 1.5 1.3 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 C-N-08 09/22/13 Mil. Head 12.0 CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly 11.5 Avg. 2007/11 11.0 2012 10.5 10.0 2013 9.5 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC C-N-10 09/22/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center: Data Source: USDA-NASS
Mil. Head 1.4 CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING LESS THAN 700 POUNDS 1,000 Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 Avg. 2007/11 2012 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 C-N-08A 09/22/13 Mil. Head 1.5 CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING MORE THAN 700 POUNDS 1,000 Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Avg. 2007/11 2012 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 C-N-08B 09/22/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center: Data Source: USDA-NASS
SLAUGHTER COW PRICES 85-90% Lean, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 95 85 Avg. 2007-11 75 2012 65 55 2013 45 JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-35 09/16/13
ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES $ Per Cwt 175 155 135 115 95 75 55 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 500-600lb Steer Calves 700-800lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers C-P-06 01/29/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Beef Demand: Export Market
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS Carcass Weight, Monthly Mil. Pounds 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Japan Canada Mexico South Korea Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-35 09/06/13
End of Rainbow for the Next Several Years Questions?
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