Renewable energy perspectives in the mediterranean countries - the Mediterranean Solar Plan Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal
As of January 2012 OME Membership
CROSS-ROADS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS AND SEVERAL CHALLENGES AHEAD 7% of world population, 500 million people, 90 million more by 2030, nearly all in the South 10% world GDP, $7.5 trillion of GDP, 2.5% p.a. average growth to 2030 8% of world s primary energy demand Important energy corridor / energy hub Several challenges calling for innovative energy strategies Security of supply concerns Financial crisis and important socio-political changes Particular vulnerability to climate change and its impacts
BUSINESS AS USUAL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE Current energy trends in the Mediterranean are not sustainable. Conservative scenario is not an option: Overall energy demand could grow by 40% to 2030. CO 2 emissions would exceed 3000Mt in 2030, up from 2200Mt currently. Electricity boom ahead: average annual growth rate of about 2.8% and 5% in the South: overall over 380 GW of additional capacity needed. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix and natural gas will overtake oil. High potential for RE & EE not fully exploited
THE REAL CHALLENGE IS IN THE SOUTH Energy for +80 million persons; +73% GDP/head. Electricity demand to multiply by 3 Overall energy demand &CO2 emissions to double.
ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL Mtoe 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Renewables & Waste Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 1990 2009 CS 2030 PS 2030 The future will remain fossil fuel based (70%) Gas demand could increase by 70%, over 40% in an alternative scenario RES can take a relevant share:16% from 8% today
7 MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD TWh MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITYGENERATION 3000 2000 South North 30% 46% 42% 1000 0 16% 84% 70% 1990 2009 Conservative 2030 54% 58% Proactive 2030 Electricity demand in the South will nearly triple by 2030.
ADDITIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY NEEDED GW 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2% 18% 49% 17% 16% IN SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN 120 GW 321 GW 289 GW Non - hydro Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 13% 14% 3% 50% 6% 14% 28% 15% 6% 40% 2009 2030 CS 2030 PS 5% 5% 200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand. 32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.
TWh 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 Hydro 14% RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION Nuclear 25% RES 6% 2010 Gas 33% Coal 14% Oil 8% 36% Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Coal RES electricity increased by more than 2.5 times in 1990-2010 Renewables are expected to compete directly with natural gas as the dominant electricity source by 2030 (over 1000 TWh)
THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLANS
RE Perspectives in Morocco Wind: 2 GW in 2020 and 5.520 in 2030 Solar: 2 GW in 2020 and 2030 targets to be defined PV connected to the grid: 200 MW in 2020 and 400 MW in 2030 Decentralised PV: 40 MW in 2020 and 80 MW in 2030 And also, large hydro & biomasse
CONCLUSIONS Substantial potential for RES in the Mediterranean, driven by decreasing costs of technologies and very favorable climate conditions Strong electricity demand growth=>role for RES-e Evolving renewable energy policy support frameworks in some countries Initiatives to improve bankability BUT obstacles to be removed: Resources assessment / Predictability Subsidies to fossil fuels/low energy prices Very diversified institutional frameworks Need for interconnections Need for innovative financing instruments and mechanisms Stronger S-S and S-N cooperation needed / capacity building, Technology transfer, exchange of best practices.
Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal houda.allal@ome.org Contact: Pedro Moraleda pedro.moraleda@ome.org