This information is provided as a resource by Saskatchewan Agriculture staff. All stated cattle prices are based on the weekly Canfax Market Outlook and Summary. Please use this information at your own risk. Weekly Cattle Market Update For the Week Ending February 22, 2019 All prices are quoted in Canadian dollars per hundredweight ($/cwt) unless otherwise stated. Saskatchewan Feeder Steer and Feeder Heifer Prices ($/cwt) Feeder Steers 300-400 400-500 500-600 600-700 700-800 800-900 900+ lb. Feb. 22/2019 Average $239.10 $234.50 $223.00 $207.25 $188.50 $175.94 $167.20 Feb. 22/2019 Range 232-248 223-245 213-235 199-218 181-196 172-182 163-172 week/week Change -$5.23 -$0.29 $0.17 $1.00 $0.42 -$1.60 -$6.45 Feb. 15/2019 Average $244.33 $234.79 $222.83 $206.25 $188.08 $177.54 $173.65 Feeder Heifers 300-400 400-500 500-600 600-700 700-800 800+ lb. Feb. 22/2019 Average $209.25 $195.00 $188.80 $178.20 $168.60 $161.63 Feb. 22/2019 Range 202-222 187-205 182-200 171-186 162-178 159-166 week/week Change -$2.50 -$4.75 -$0.30 -$1.30 -$1.40 -$0.37 Feb. 15/2019 Average $211.75 $199.75 $189.10 $179.50 $170.00 $162.00 Source: Canadian data is provide by CanFax and cannot be redistributed without Canfax consent (www.canfax.ca). Note: Prices are determined from Saskatchewan auction marts' reports of sale results from Thursday of the previous week to Wednesday the current week. N.A. means not available due to lack of sufficient data. Canfax reported that a total of 17,457 head of cattle were sold in Saskatchewan over the week, up from 9,953 head a week ago, and up from 13,225 head the same week a year ago. Saskatchewan feeder steer prices were mixed over the week with price comparisons from all the weight categories from the previous week. Saskatchewan feeder steer prices ranged between $6.45 per cwt lower and $1.00 per cwt higher over the week. The biggest price declines were in the 900+ lb. feeder steer weight category; while the largest price gains over the week were in the 600-700 lb. weight category. On average, Saskatchewan feeder steer prices declined by almost $2 per cwt over the week. Saskatchewan feeder heifer prices were lower over the week in all weight categories, compared to the previous week. Feeder heifer prices declined between $0.30 per cwt and $4.75 per cwt over the week. The biggest price declines were in the 400-500 lb. feeder heifer weight category. On average, Saskatchewan feeder heifer prices declined by almost $2 per cwt over the week. Saskatchewan feeder cattle prices are provided by Canfax (#403-275-5110) or (www.canfax.ca) and cannot be redistributed without permission. The Saskatchewan 750 lb. feeder steer basis compared to the Feb. 21, 2019, U.S. feeder cattle index at US$141.31 per cwt was calculated at (+$2.35) per cwt ($188.50 - US$141.31/0.7591), a basis strengthening of $1.73 per cwt from the basis of (+$0.62) per cwt from February 14, 2019. 1
Feeder cattle daily futures prices were mixed over the week with bigger gains on Tuesday to help prices edge slightly higher, week-over-week. The March feeder cattle contract increased US$0.300 per cwt over the week to settle Friday US$142.900 per cwt; while the April feeder cattle contract increased US$0.075 per cwt to settle Friday at US$145.300 per cwt. Source: CME, LMIC Source: CME, LMIC Live daily cattle futures prices were mixed over the week with good gains on Tuesday to help push nearby contracts higher, week-over-week. The February contract increased US$2.050 per cwt over the week to settle Friday at US$128.675 per cwt; while the April contract increased US$1.300 per cwt to settle Friday at US$128.475 per cwt. Fed and Non-Fed Cattle February 22, Steers (Alberta) Live Rail Cows (Alberta) 2019 $148.10 $244.75 to $247.50 February 15, 2019 $148.67 $247.00 to $251.00 Over Week -$0.57 -$2.25 to -$3.50 D1,2 Live $83.14 $82.17 +$0.97 D3 Live $74.33 $74.00 +$0.33 Rail $162-167 $162-167 n/c Source: Canfax. (n/a = not available, n/c = no change) Prices for liveweight, non-fed cattle in Alberta were higher last week from the previous week. The price of D1,2 slaughter cows increased $0.97 per cwt last week to average $83.14 per cwt; while the price of D3 slaughter cows increased $0.33 per cwt to average $74.33 per cwt over the period. Fed cattle prices for Alberta fed steers were reported to average $148.10 per cwt over the week, a price decline of $0.57 per cwt from $148.67 per cwt from the previous week. Western Canadian slaughter cattle prices are provided by Canfax and cannot be redistributed without their permission. www.canfax.ca 2
The live (FOB feedlot) weighted average 5-area (Texas/Oklahoma/New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado and Iowa/Minnesota) weekly fed steer price in the U.S. was reported at US$126.36 per cwt, up US$1.40 per cwt or 1.1 per cent from US$124.96 per cwt the previous week; but down 1.2 per cent from US$127.95 per cwt the same week a year ago. The dressed (delivered basis) price for U.S. steers delivered to plants in the 5-area was reported at US$201.97 per cwt, up US$2.05 per cwt or 1.0 per cent from US$199.92 per cwt the previous week, but down 1.3 per cent from US$204.69 per cwt the same week a year ago. The Cattle on Feed Report was released on February 22, by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), for the January 1 inventory numbers. January 1, 2018 and 2019, Cattle on Feed (in U.S. feedlots with 1,000+ capacity) 2018 2019 Per cent of previous year On feed December 1 11,516,000 11,739,000 101.9 Placed during December 1,799,000 1,767,000 98.2 Marketed during December 1,752,000 1,741,000 99.4 Other disappearance during December 74,000 75,000 101.3 On feed January 1 11,489,000 11,690,000 101.7 Source: USDA The USDA Cattle on Feed (COF) report was delayed due to the government shutdown with the January report finally coming out on Friday. The number of cattle placed on feed in December 2018 was 1.767 million head, down almost two per cent from 1.799 million head in December 2017, and down 11.5 per cent from 1.996 million head placed in November 2018. The number of fed cattle marketed in December 2018 was 1.741 million head, down 0.6 per cent from 1.752 million head in December 2017, and down almost seven per cent from 1.869 million head marketed in November 2018. The December 2018 cattle placements were 98.2 per cent of the December 2017 numbers which were well below the average trade estimates which projected a two per cent increase (102.0 per cent). The cattle marketed in December 2018 were 99.4 per cent of the December 2017 numbers; which were slightly below but closely in line with the average trade estimates (99.9 per cent). The USDA cattle on feed numbers for January 1, 2019 were 11.690 million head, up 1.7 per cent from the January 1, 2018 inventory numbers of 11.489 million head, but down 0.4 per cent from 11.739 million head on December 1, 2018. The USDA year-over-year numbers were just over a half per cent below the average trade estimates (102.3 per cent). The USDA numbers were lower than the average trade estimates for December placement s and December marketing s, along with the January 1 inventory numbers; with the December cattle placements the biggest surprise (-3.8%) in the report. While the January 1, 2019 cattle on feed numbers were below the average trade analyst numbers; beef supplies will continue to increase in 2019 and beef demand will continue to be very important for beef prices. 3
Meat In U.S. Cold Storage USDA released the latest U.S. cold storage numbers on February 22 for the December 31, 2018 inventory numbers. The U.S. beef stocks in cold storage totaled 495.6 million lb. on Dec. 31, 2018, down 3.7 per cent from 515.6 million lb. on November 30, 2018, but up 1.5 per cent from 488.1 million lb. on December 31, 2017. Beef stocks in cold storage for Dec. 31, 2018 were above the monthly 14-year average; but below the monthly 14-year highs. Total pork, beef, chicken and turkey in cold storage on December 31, 2018 was estimated to be 2.181 billion lb., down 2.3 per cent from November 30, 2018, but up slightly from a year ago. U.S. meat in cold storage for December 31, 2018 was above the 14-year average, but below the all-time 14-year December high. Friday Price Information Product (Feb. 22, 2019) (Feb. 15, 2019) (Feb. 23, 2018) Canadian Dollar (closing rate US$).7591.7538.7894 U.S. Cash Cattle Thurs. Feeder Cattle (FC) Index (US$ per cwt) 141.31 141.31 147.63 Seven-day Weighted Average FC Index Wt. (lb.) 794 793 795 Live Fed 5-area Steer Price (US$ per cwt) 126.36 124.96 127.95 Feed Grains Barley Lethbridge ($/tonne) $257.50 $258.50 $224.00 ($ per bu.) mid-point price $5.61 $5.63 $4.88 Corn Iowa State Average (CDN$/tonne)* 178.40 179.14 164.07 (US$ per bu.) 3.44 3.43 3.29 Futures Omaha, NE (CDN$/tonne)* 191.89 192.19 173.55 (US$ per bu.) 3.70 3.68 3.48 March Corn (US$ per bu.) 3.75 ¼ 3.74 ¾ 3.66 ¼ May Corn (US$ per bu.) 3.84 ½ 3.82 ¾ 3.74 ½ February Live Cattle (US$ per cwt) 128.675 126.625 128.000 April Live Cattle (US$ per cwt) 128.875 127.175 124.850 March Feeder Cattle (US$ per cwt) 142.900 142.600 146.000 May Feeder Cattle (US$ per cwt) 146.850 146.575 149.375 Sources: Bank of Canada, Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), ICE Futures Canada and USDA Livestock & Grain Market News * conversion to CDN$ is based on Friday s CDN$ closing rate. 4
U.S. beef production for the week ending February 23, 2019 was estimated at 474.6 million lb., down 3.6 per cent from 492.2 million lb. the previous week, but up 0.6 per cent from 471.9 million lb. the same week a year ago. Choice beef cutout prices (600-900 lb.) for the week averaged US$217.72 per cwt over the week, up US$1.04 per cwt or 0.5 per cent from US$216.68 per cwt the previous week, and up 0.6 per cent from US$216.53 per cwt the same week a year ago. For more information, contact: Brad Marceniuk, PAg. Provincial Livestock Economist 306-933-5098 brad.marceniuk@gov.sk.ca 5