U.S. Reflections on Outcomes and Implications of Bali Dr. Harlan L. Watson Senior Climate Negotiator and Special Representative U.S. Department of State IISD Conference on A Way Forward: Canadian and International Perspectives on Post-2012 Climate Policy Crowne Plaza Hotel Ottawa, DC March 3, 2008
Bali Action Plan Launched a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed outcome and adopt a decision at COP 15 in 2009. Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change, including: Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives by all developed country Parties, while ensuring the comparability of efforts among them, taking into account differences in their national circumstances; and Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner. Enhanced action on adaptation Enhanced action on technology development and transfer to support action on mitigation and adaptation ; and Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources and investment to support action on mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation. Also, address a shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions. Negotiations are to be conducted under a subsidiary body under the Convention: Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperation under the Convention (AWG-LCA).
CO 2 (Gt CO 2 /yr) Reference Case Projection of CO 2 1 to 2100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 By 2010, Non-OECD Exceed OECD, 67 % Non-OECD ; 33% OECD 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 OECD Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe Latin America Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Former Soviet Union China Australia/NZ South Korea Mexico Canada Japan OECD Europe 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO 2. Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas and Atmospheric Concentrations (Estimates based on MINICAM model results and other data). USA
Major Economies Meeting (MEM) Process: Background Proposed by President Bush on May 31, 2007, with following major elements: Long term global goal for greenhouse gas reduction, consistent with economic growth National plans that set mid-term goals Use variety of binding and voluntary policies (mandates, incentives, partnerships) Must be environmentally effective and measurable Collaborative technology development and deployment strategies for key sectors Lower carbon fossil power generation, transportation, land use, and near zero carbon energy (e.g., efficiency, nuclear, wind, and solar) International working groups on key sectors (to advance global and national efforts) Support adoption of existing clean technologies and the development of new ones Elimination of tariffs and non-tariff barriers for clean energy goods and services Enhanced financing tools Expanded investment in global research and development Improved measurement and accounting systems that can more effectively track progress Robust programs on adaptation, forestry, and technology access for all countries. Endorsed by G8 Leaders at Heiligendamm Summit in June 2007 and by APEC Leaders at the Sydney Summit in September 2007. G8 Leaders agreed to produce a detailed contribution by the end of 2008 which would contribute to a global agreement under the UNFCCC by 2009. The MEM Process is intended to support and contribute to the UNFCCC negotiations.
Major Economies Meetings 17 Major Economies and UNFCCC Secretariat represented. Annex I Australia Canada EU (France, Germany, Italy, UK, EU Presidency, EC) Japan Russia US Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico Republic of Korea South Africa Non-Annex I First MEM in Washington, DC: September 27-28, 2007. Second MEM in Honolulu, Hawaii: January 30-31, 2008. Discussed long-term goal, national mid-term plans, sectoral technology approaches, international financing, tariff elimination, measurement improvements, forestry and adaptation. Third MEM in Paris in April, 2008. Leaders Meeting: Summer 2008
Major Economies: Significance 17 Major Economies in 2005 accounted for: 87% of World GDP (Market Exchange Rates) 82% of World Total Net Electricity Generation 82% of World GDP (Purchasing Power Parities) 64% of World Population 80% of World Primary Energy Consumption 94% of World Coal Consumption 88% of World Coal Reserves 77% of World Petroleum Consumption 70% of World Dry Natural Gas Consumption 79% of World CO2 from the Fossil Fuel Combustion 73% of World GHG Sources: International Energy Agency Online Data Services (http://data.iea.org/ieastore/statslisting.asp) and Energy Information Administration (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html)
Annual Gigaton CO 2 and Percent Reductions from Reference 3 40 Reference Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries Annex I at 0 Annex I at 20% 2000 Annex I at 50% 2000 30 CO 2 (Gt CO 2 /yr) 20 10 0 2000 Annex I Reference (18.2 Gt) 2000 Non-Annex I Reference (32.4 Gt) -100% (-18.2 Gt) Annex I (0 Gt) -62% (-20.1 Gt) Non-Annex I (12.3Gt) -84% (-15.2 Gt) Annex I (3.0 Gt) -71% (-23.1 Gt) Non-Annex I (9.3 Gt) -59% (-10.7 Gt) Annex I (7.4 Gt) -85% (-27.6 Gt) Non-Annex I (4.9 Gt) 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO 2. 2 50% of 2000 global GHG emissions equals 12.3 Gt. 3 Equals reduction from reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I). Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results).
Average Annual Power Generation Capacity Additions to Reduce CO 2 by 50% of 2005 level, 2010 Coal-fired with CCS Gas-fired with CCS Nuclear Hydropower Biomass Wind Geothermal PV CSP 38 CCS coal-fired plants (500 MW) 20 CCS gas-fired plants (500 MW) 26 nuclear plants (1000 MW) 1/3 Canadian hydropower capacity 222 CHP Plants (50 MW) 17,500 Turbines (4 MW) 132 Geothermal Units (100 MW) 175 million m 2 80 CSP plants (250 MW) 0 20 40 60 80 Source: Nobuo Tanaka (IEA) [GW/yr]
U.S. National Initiatives Since 2001 $45 Billion Federal Climate Budget Mandates Corporate Fuel Economy Standard (CAFE) Renewable Fuels Standard ( RFS ) Appliance Efficiency Standards Incandescent Light Bulb Phase Out Federal Facilities Requirements State Renewable Power ( RPS ) 32 States; 74% net generating capacity Building Codes- Federal Facilities & States DOE Model Code 30% Improvement Partnerships Nuclear Power 2010 Improved NRC Process for Nuclear Power Climate Vision (14 Industry Sectors) Climate Leaders (150+ Company Leaders) Smartway Transportation Partnerships Energy Star and Natural Gas Star EPA Methane and High-GWP Programs Federal Energy Management Program Incentives About $52.5 billion EPAct 2005 Clean Coal Investment Tax Credit ($1.6B + leveraging over $10B Private capital $42.5 billion in Loan Guarantees (power and fuels) Up to $3,400 Tax Credit for Efficient Vehicles Up to $4,000 in Home Solar Incentives Biological Sequestration part of $40+ Billion 2002 Farm Bill Conservation Programs Technology Renewable Power: Advanced Solar/Wind Nuclear Power: Generation IV and Fusion Coal: Low Carbon Research; FutureGen Zero Coal & Hydrogen Power Plant; Regional CCS Program Fuels: Cellulosic Ethanol, Bio-Diesel, Hydrogen Vehicles: Plug-in Hybrids, Hydrogen Fuel Cell Zero Energy Home Research
Major New Domestic Initiatives Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: December 2007 Renewable Fuels Mandate 36 billion gallons of biofuel annually by 2022 about 5 times current levels (~15% supply) Vehicle Fuel Economy Mandate 35 miles per gallon by 2020 a 40 percent improvement saving more about 8.5 billion gallons annually (~5% supply). New attribute-based standards approach helps ensure increased fuel efficiency does not affect safety. Lighting Mandate Phase out incandescent bulbs by 2014 Appliance Mandates Federal Facility Requirements Reduce energy consumption 30 percent by 2015 New Federal buildings carbon-neutral by 2030 Executive Order: Strengthening Federal Government Management Reduce Oil Consumption in Vehicles: 2%/year Increase Use of Renewable Fuels: 10%/year Improve energy efficiency: 30%/10 years Use More Renewable Power Farm Bill Conservation Portion of $50+B for Biological Sequestration and $1.6B in New Funding for Energy Innovation $2B in Loans for Advanced Biofuel Plants 2009 Budget $8.6 Billion for climate change programs) $3.2 B for the Advanced Energy Initiative Hydrogen Fuel Advanced Batteries for Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles New Ethanol Production Methods Together, these measures could reduce CO2 emissions by more than 6 billion metric tons through 2030.
U.S. International Initiatives Since 2001 Global Action Programs Technology Advancement Asia-Pacific Partnership: 7 Nations Accounts for nearly 50% of global population, and over 50% of global GDP, energy use, and GHG emissions Over 110 projects underway G-8 Gleneagles Dialogue: ~20 Nations More than 40 programs Methane to Markets: 20 Nations + EC 180+ million tons CO2 equivalent reduced by 2015 Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP): 17 Nations 15 Bilateral Agreements on Climate Change Science and Technology Tropical Forest Conservation Stopping Illegal Logging Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF): 21 Nations + EC FutureGen Project: 5 Nations International Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy (IPHE): (16 Nations + EC) Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP): 19 Nations Gen IV [Nuclear] International Forum (GIF): 9 Nations + Euratom ITER [Fusion Energy]: 6 Nations + Euratom Group on Earth Observations (GEO): 72 Nations + EC + 52 intergovernmental, international, and regional organizations
Congressional Perspective 1 Biden-Lugar resolution (S. Res. 30) reported March 29, 2007 by Senate Foreign Relations Committee: States sense of the Senate that the U.S. should participate in negotiaions under the UNFCCC with the objective of securing United States participation in binding agreements that... establish mitigation commitments by all countries that are major emitters of greenhouse gases, consistent with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Lieberman-Warner bill (S. 2191) reported December 5, 2007 by Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: It is the policy of the United States to work proactively under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and in other appropriate forums to establish binding agreements committing all major greenhouse gas-emitting nations to contribute equitably to the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Congressional Perspective 2