One Year Later An update presented to the National Petroleum Council September 17, 2008 1
The 2007 Study Questions What does the future hold for global oil and natural gas supply? Can incremental oil and gas supplies be brought on-line, on-time, and at a reasonable price to meet future demand without jeopardizing economic growth? What oil and gas supply strategies and / or demand-side strategies does the Council recommend the U.S. pursue to ensure greater economic stability and prosperity? 2
Unprecedented Report Reception Over 1.5 million downloads from the website Over 8,200 hard copy reports distributed Over 180 presentations and briefings Executive Summary in seven languages: English Arabic Chinese French Japanese Russian Spanish 3
Events and Trends in the Last Year Oil and gas prices rose sharply and remain volatile Higher energy prices are slowing demand growth Geopolitical issues are widespread: Middle East Russia/Caucasus Nigeria Venezuela Focus on carbon management has increased Energy Independence and Security Act enacted Energy is a high-profile topic in the political debate 4
Task Group Updates Demand Jim Burkhard Supply Don Paul Geopolitics and Policy Frank Verrastro Technology Rod Nelson 5
Key Findings from the 2007 Report Reinforced Demand for fuel and power to grow significantly, requiring increases in efficiency, and expansion of all economic energy sources Increasing risks to the expansion of conventional liquids supplies Significant additions of unconventional liquids supply are projected Recent studies report a larger oil and gas resource endowment Exploration and production expenditures have increased dramatically Growing pressure on cost and availability of project resources is hindering the ability to expand energy production capability Pressures to address carbon emissions and energy security are increasing To meet the accumulating risks, all recommendations of the 2007 Report require implementation with increased urgency 6
The Hard Truths Coal, oil, and natural gas will remain indispensable to meeting total projected energy demand growth. Growth of economic activity and population in developing world expected to drive increased energy demand Non-OECD demand likely to exceed OECD U.S. and G-8 share of world economy decreasing Updates project that coal, oil and gas fossil fuels will supply substantial majority of energy through 2030 7
Economic and Energy Projections U.S. Share of 2030 World GDP World Energy Outlooks 20% 15% QBTU 900 800 2007 Study High 10% EIA IEA 700 600 2008 Range 5% 500 2007 Study Low 0% 2006 Proj 2007 Proj 2008 Proj 400 2010 2020 2030 Global GDP estimates are higher, U.S. share decreasing New outlooks within original Study s range 8
Projected Demand Increase Developing world projected to drive the demand increase Coal, oil, and gas continue to supply ~80% of total energy World Energy 500 2030 400 Renewables Nuclear QBTUs 300 200 2005 Coal Gas 100 Oil 0 OECD Non- OECD OECD Non- OECD Source: DOE EIA 2008 International Energy Outlook. 9
The Hard Truths The world is not running out of energy resources, but there are accumulating risks to continuing expansion of oil and natural gas production from the conventional sources relied upon historically. These risks create significant challenges to meeting projected demand. Increasingly apparent accumulation of risks to expansion of conventional liquids Resource estimates are growing, but turning resources into supplies is an increasing challenge Where resource is accessible, cost and availability of materials and human resources are hindering projects Constraints to expansion of first-generation biofuels are more apparent 10
Liquids Production Projections New projections are mostly within last year s range when normalized Lower projections may reflect reduced demand assessment rather than supply limitation For petroleum liquids alone, the Shell scenarios show flat-to-declining production after 2020 All data from published sources. 11
140 The Growing Liquids Supply Challenge Increasing demand and natural production decline create growing need for significant new production capacity 120 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 100 80 60 40 20 Existing Production Capacity IEO 2008 Demand Range 2015 30 45 MBOE/D Required New Capacity 2030 70-100 MBOE/D 4-7% Production Decline Unconventional and biofuels Conventional non OPEC Conventional OPEC 0 2007 2015 2030 12
Investment, Capacity, and Time (2008 dollars) Investment has dramatically increased...... with years required to increase production MILLION BARRELS PER DAY DOLLARS/BBL 125 100 75 50 25 0 OIL PRICE WORLD OIL CAPACITY E&P EXPENDITURE 400 300 200 100 0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Sources: BP Statistical Review, IEA, Citigroup, 2008 dollars. 13
The Hard Truths To mitigate these risks, expansion of all economic energy sources will be required, including coal, nuclear, biomass, other renewables, and unconventional oil and natural gas. Each of these sources faces significant challenges... Continued efficiency improvement increasingly important Increased unconventional liquids, biofuels, and unconventional gas necessary Access to resources critical to augmenting U.S. supply Simultaneous pursuit of multiple energy sources increases pressure on cost and availability of project resources 14
Energy Efficiency Without energy efficiency improvement, projected energy use would be substantially higher 1,500 Total World Energy QUAD/YEAR 1,200 900 600 300 Energy Consumption at 2005 Intensity Projected Energy Consumption (EIA 2008) Energy Intensity Reduced 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Intensity is unit of energy per unit of economic output Source: EIA s 2008 International Energy Outlook. 15
World Unconventional Liquids Unconventional liquids needed to meet forecast demand in most projections Development of unconventional sources requires significantly increased investment levels, continued technology advancements, and potentially large carbon management infrastructure Source: EIA IEO2008 reference case. 16
U.S. Unconventional Liquids Potential Aggressive forecasts reflect development of significant unconventional resources Combination of Aggressive, Unconstrained Forecasts MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 16 12 8 4 0 Biofuels Coal-to-Liquids Oil Shale Heavy Oil CO 2 EOR 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Tar Sands Total in EIA AEO 2008 Reference Case for 2030 Sources: Strategic Unconventional Fuels Task Force, DOE and USDA, ARI and other. 17
U.S. Unconventional Gas Technology and price have increased unconventional gas drilling and production 12 10 U.S. Unconventional Gas Production 2008 AEO TCF/YEAR 8 6 4 U.S. LNG Imports 2006 AEO 2006 AEO 2 0 2008 AEO 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA s 2006 and 2008 Annual Energy Outlook. 18
Restricted Resources Access to significant U.S. oil and gas resources restricted Production Timeline Onshore: 1 to 8+ years Offshore: 3 to 10+ years Alaska: 8 to 12+ years 19
Biofuels Growth To Continue 1 st generation biofuels have become an integral component of fuel supply 2 nd generation not yet demonstrated at scale EIA IEO2008 Reference Case World Biofuel Production with USDA's 2007 Ethanol Production Forecast by Country EIA IEO 2008 Reference Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017 from Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices July 23, 2008. 20
Power Generation Growth Wind and solar projected to grow strongly worldwide, contributing 2-3% of U.S. power in 2030 Geothermal and hydropower grow at lower rates, with U.S. hydro declining slightly 34 nuclear power plants are under construction worldwide Strong global coal growth forecast ex carbon constraints Growing resistance to new U.S. coal power plants poses a risk to meeting projected demand Carbon constraints will increase power generation costs to consumers 21
World Coal Consumption Global and U.S. resources and reserves estimates remain very large relative to production requirements Strong global growth forecast will pressure greenhouse gas concerns QUADRILLION BTU 250 200 150 100 50 India China United States Rest of World 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA, IEO 2008. 22
Indicators of Increasing Risks to Production Growth Limited increases in supply capacity in spite of unprecedented investment rates Major development projects suffering increased costs and delays Most forecasts project significant increases in unconventional liquids production which require major new investments and technology advances First-generation ethanol supply is predicted to flatten by 2015 23
The Hard Truths Energy Independence should not be confused with strengthening energy security. The concept of energy independence is not realistic in the foreseeable future, whereas U.S. energy security can be enhanced by moderating demand, expanding and diversifying domestic energy supplies, and strengthening global energy trade and investment. Growing revenues enable resource-owning countries to pursue national interests incompatible with increasing supply Subsidies for energy use distorting market and becoming significant political challenges in energy-consuming countries Improved understanding of food, fuel, and environmental balance is increasing the complexity of the energy debate Heightened sense of accumulating above-ground risks 24
Increasing Oil Revenue Flows Wealth transfer enables resource nationalism 900 800 700 OPEC Net Oil Export Revenue REAL 2008 $ BILLION $ 600 500 400 300 200 100 NOMINAL $ 0 Source: EIA. 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 25
Heightened and Accumulating Risks Europe Gas Supplies Russia State Re-Control Caspian Transit Vulnerability U.S. Access, Carbon, Hurricanes Latin America Resource Nationalism Nigeria Civil Unrest Iraq Sabotage Iran Nuclear Threat Asia Energy Subsidies Strait of Malacca Piracy 26
The Hard Truths A majority of the U.S. energy sector workforce, including skilled scientists and engineers, is eligible to retire within the next decade. The workforce must be replenished and trained. Increased awareness of the issue Enrollments in petroleum engineering have doubled since 2005 Starting salaries are up Academic capacity may be limited by faculty Professional societies have increased involvement 27
U.S. Petroleum Engineering Enrollment Enrollment is increasing, but faculty could be a limit U.S. Petroleum Engineering Enrollment 1,400 1,200 STUDENTS, # 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 ACADEMIC YEAR FRESHMAN MASTER DOCTOR FACULTY 28
The Hard Truths Policies aimed at curbing carbon dioxide emissions will alter the energy mix, increase energy-related related costs, and require reductions in demand growth. Discussions of carbon constraints have intensified, yet understanding of scale and cost is superficial Policy uncertainty has hindered construction of new U.S. fossil fuel power plants, increasing the risk of a supply gap Some progress made on demonstrating CCS, but legal/regulatory and economic frameworks do not exist 29
Enormous Challenge to Reduce Carbon Emissions How big is a Gigaton of Carbon? Technology Coal-fired power plants Geologic sequestration Nuclear Efficiency Wind energy Solar photovoltaics Biofuels for transport CO 2 storage in forests Actions that provide 1 Gt/yr of Carbon Mitigation Build 1,000 zero-emission 500 MW power plants 3,700 sequestration sites the size of Norway s Sleipner Build 500 new nuclear plants, each 1 GW in size Deploy 1 billion new cars at 40 mpg vs. 20 mpg Install 650,000 wind turbines Install 6 Million acres of photovoltaics Convert an area 20 times that of Iowa to new biomass Convert to new forest a barren area 9 times that of the state of Washington Source: DOE Climate Change Technology Program. 30
Expanding CO 2 Sequestration Plans Larger sites which plan on injecting more than 700,000 tons CO 2 per year Proposed CCS sites for the UK Smaller injection sites proposed or active 31
The Five Core Strategies Moderate growing demand by increasing efficiency of transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial uses In the U.S., expand and diversify energy supply, moderate oil and gas production decline, and increase access to new resources Strengthen global energy trade and investment Enhance science and engineering capabilities As CO 2 emissions reductions are considered, promote a global framework for carbon management to establish: Transparent, predictable, economy-wide cost Legal / regulatory structure to enable CCS All recommendations must be pursued 32
Progress on the Strategies 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act raises CAFE and promotes improved building, industrial, and appliance efficiency Increased access for U.S. oil and gas production being debated More global discussion on responses to volatile energy prices U.S. investment increasing for oil, gas, and renewables 33
Progress on the Strategies 30 U.S. LIQUID FUELS DEMAND 50% DEMAND MODERATION MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 15 U.S. LIQUID FUELS MODERATE GLOBAL TRADE (NET IMPORTS) EXPAND & DIVERSIFY 2000 2010 YEAR 2020 2030 Source: EIA Reference Case / Global Oil and Gas study survey. Illustrative View 34
Summary Conclusions Increasing evidence of accumulating risk to adequate supply Growing pressure on cost and availability of project resources hindering ability to develop energy resources Geopolitical risks are widespread Technology investments are increasing for energy efficiency, diversification, alternatives, and carbon management Clear legal and regulatory framework for carbon management needed Carbon constraints will alter energy mix Energy related costs will increase 35
Thank you for listening to this presentation on: Facing the Hard Truths About Energy For information, please refer to the Website for a complete list of available resources: http://www.npc.org 36