The Future of Energy: Latin America s Path to Sustainability Santiago, Chile The Solar Revolution Its Scale, the Benefit and Challenges Dr. Francis O Sullivan August 18 th, 2015 1
The scale and distribution of the solar resource make it one of the few low carbon technologies capable of meeting a substantial fraction of worldwide electricity demand even with rapid economic growth. Map showing global variations in average annual solar irradiance With today s technology, total U.S. electricity demand could be met by solar covering 0.43% of the contiguous U.S. Source: Map adapted from Albuisson, M., M. Lefevre, and L. Wald. Averaged Solar Radiation 1990-2004, Ecole des Mines de Paris. (2006). 2
Two pathways for generating solar electricity PV will dominate solar electricity generation for the foreseeable future Solar photovoltaics (PV) - Mature: 97% of global solar capacity (~200 GW) - Modular: efficiency does not depend on scale - Output responds immediately to changes in insolation Concentrated solar power (CSP) - Less mature, more expensive - Capital costs fall with scale - Needs clear skies - Dispatchable when thermal storage is added 3
The solar growth story A decade of dramatic change 4
The past half decade has borne witness to remarkable growth in the scale of global solar generation capacity This year will see 65GW of new PV capacity come online with 32 GW coming from the US, Japan and China alone Cumulative global installed PV capacity GW 250 200 150 USA China Europe ROW 65 GW of new PV capacity in 2015 100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Global installed solar capacity will approach 250GW by the end of 2015, a 12X expansion since 2008 Source: MIT Analysis, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Solar Energy Industry Association, European Photovoltaic Industry Association, IHS 5
The pathway for this solar growth depends on the local market In the US and China, utility scale systems are the dominant growth vector, while in markets like Japan distributed systems lead the way Annual PV capacity additions by system type MW Cumulative PV capacity by state (2014) MW Other 9000 Utility 20000 New Mexico 8000 Commercial Texas 7000 Residential 16000 New York 6000 5000 12000 Hawaii Nevada 4000 3000 2000 1000 8000 4000 Massachusetts North Carolina New Jersey Arizona California 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 0 2014 In the US, close to 60% of all PV capacity is in the form of utility-scale units Source: MIT Analysis, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Solar Energy Industry Association, European Photovoltaic Industry Association, IHS 6
Latin America is rapidly becoming a key center for solar development Chile alone is expected to install 1 GW in 2015, while the entire region is expected to see 2.2 GW of new capacity Chilean solar capacity by system type at the end of 2014 MW 1400 1200 CSP PV 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Operational - End of '14 Under Construction Chile is home to two of the world s largest merchant solar plants Source: Chilean Center for Renewable Energy, GTM, IHS 7
Large reductions in the cost of PV modules has been a key factor in the recent growth of solar installations Increasingly, the focus of solar economics is shifting to the balance-of-system (BOS) Rapid declines in PV module prices have been important drivers of growth Evolution of PV module & system prices $/W p but these declines may have slowed and BOS costs have declined much less rapidly RESIDENTIAL PV System UTILITY PV system MODULE Price Drop ~85% BOS MODULE Source: MIT Analysis, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Solar Energy Industry Association, Photon Consulting LLC 8
Unsurprisingly, as costs have fallen solar has become increasingly attractive relative to conventional generation In the US, utility-scale PV plants in regions like CA are now competitive with new build CCGT even without subsidy Photovoltaic Systems Levelized cost of electricity $/MWh 350 300 Benchmark Natural Gas Generation LCOEs ITC Subsidy Value After Subsidy LCOE 287 250 Regional variation Minimum LCOE 200 192 158 150 100 76 123 105 50 0 Gas Combined Cycle Gas Combustion Turbine CA MA CA MA Utility-Scale PV Residential-Scale PV * CSP LCOE numbers based on CA system having 11 hours and MA system having 8 hours of nameplate capacity storage Source: MIT Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Making solar work The challenges of very large scale 10
In competitive power markets, increased solar PV penetration will reduce the average price that PV generators receive This means that for solar to succeed at very large scale, its costs must be reduced substantially Illustration of how the price a solar generator receives for its output can fall well below the average market price as solar penetration increases $/MWh 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 0 6 12 18 Solar Penetration 24 30 36 (% Peak Demand) Source: MIT Analysis 11
As the level of PV penetration rises it also yield some challenges for grid operation, particularly regarding capacity and ramping The future success of PV is intimately linked with that of storage Simulated net demand for non-pv generation at different levels of PV penetration ERCOT (Texas) typical summer day ELECTRICITY DEMAND PEAK NON-PV GENERATION INCREASED RAMPING RATE REQUIRED 24 hour day Source: MIT Analysis 12
The development of scalable energy storage technologies is a crucial part of a strategy to achieve economic large-scale PV deployment Example of how market remuneration for PV generation varies as a function of solar penetration and energy storage availability When storage is added to a grid system, the average remuneration a solar system receives for its generation increases The availability of energy storage is critical to enabling the economic deployment of large-scale solar generation Source: MIT Analysis 13
Increasing levels of distributed PV are accompanied by a complex set of challenges and opportunities It can help lower line losses, but it can also result in the need for substantial grid investment Average total costs with increased distributed PV penetration under different assumptions about design standards & generation mix Source: MIT Analysis 14
Net metering subsidizes residential PV more than utility-scale PV at the expense of other customers This has already produced conflict System before A installs solar System after A becomes a net solar seller Network cost paid by customer per kwh Network cost paid to customer A per kwh Energy cost paid by customer per kwh Energy cost paid to net-metered customer per kwh Additional network cost paid by customers without solar Utility Rate $/kwh Utility Rate $/kwh Higher retail price with cost shifted Retail price including network costs Wholesale energy price Wholesale energy price A B C Utility Customers N A B C Utility Customers N - When A sells power, she gets the retail price, while utilityscale sellers get the wholesale price, often much lower - When A stops covering any network costs, the retail rate must go up so the other customers cover those costs plus the network cost paid to A! Net-metered rate paid to Customer A 15
DESs mean network usage patterns will change and these changes could easily outstrip regulatory innovation A lack of regulatory proactiveness will result in inefficiencies and will hinder the evolution of the utility business model Features the new regulatory paradigm must provide: - Enable distribution utilities to evolve to meet the changing needs of network users - Provide efficient price signals for the increasingly diverse set of network users - Define the appropriate industry structure and responsibilities of the distribution utility A new approach to network tariff design: 16
Questions and Discussion 17