Implications of the Changing Energy Map Comments for IEA WEO 2013 Symposium Tokyo 28 November, 2013 The Institute of Energy Economics, Yukari Yamashita Board Member, Director Energy Data and Modelling Center
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013 : Summary World energy demand will continue to grow, mostly in Asia. - Energy conservation and climate change measures Keys - Diffusion of existing technologies will not be enough to achieve the target of halving CO2 emissions by 2050. - Innovative technologies must be developed & deployed to limit the temperature rise to 2 from pre-industrialization by the end of the 21st century. Global CO 2 Emission Growth and Projected Reduction Changes Induced by the Shale Revolution - Oil and gas prices will decline - Lower gas price will prompt fuel switching from coal to gas Change in the global primary energy structure - Fossil fuel exports from North America & FSU - Economic impacts : Positive for many countries (USA, Latin America, Oceania and Asia) Negative for the and the FSU Reference: Accumulation after U.S. shale revolution Economic Impacts by 2040 of the Shale Revolution by Region (relative to the Reference Scenario) Latin America 2 India Oceania Southeast Asia USA Europe FSU FSU
Warning for Nikkei (13 November 2013) and EU will lose Export Share by 30%: IEA s Outlook for 2035 Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods European Union +3% +1% +2% +2% Today 36% 10% 7% 7% 3% 2% United States India -3% -10% Share of Export Industries Economy Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States 5 Natural gas Electricity 4 3 2 Reduction from 2013 2003 2013 2035 2003 faces Two Challenges (Interview with Mme. van der Hoeven ) United States European Union European Union Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today s very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist 3
Economy of Energy Importers will Also Benefit U.S., difference from "No-shale" case L.America GDP Gains in 2040 from Reference Case Unconventional Resource Development Scenario India Oceania ASEAN U.S. Europe FSU -5-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 % N.B.: Difference between Unconventional Energy Revolution Scenario & Reference case. Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) 4
Asia and : Interdependency will continue Contributions to global oil production growth Conventional: Brazil 2013-2025 2025-2035 Rest of the world Unconventional: Light tight oil 2013-2025 Oil and Gas Supply Picture will Change Oil Mb/d 20 10 0-10 -20-30 Increase in net exports L. N. America America Decrease in net inports Oceania Other Asia Increase in net inports Unconventional Resource Development Scenario Decrease in net exports Europe FSU Africa Middle East Oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal/gas-to-liquids, & other -8-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 8 mb/d The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid-2020s, but the is critical to the longer-term oil outlook 2011 2040, Reference 2040, Development Natural gas Bcm 400 200 0-200 -400-600 Increse in net exports Oceania Africa N. L. America America Decrease in net inports Other Asia Increase in net inports Europe Middle East Decrease in net exports FSU 2011 2040, Reference 2040, Development Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) 5
Unconventional Gas Boom will Replace Coal Power generation capacity additions and retirements, 2013-2035 United States Mtoe 3,000 2,500 Unconventional Resource Development Scenario Primary Energy Supply Increase by Source (2011 2040) Development European Union India Unconventional Conventional Reference 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 GW & India together build almost 40% of the world s new capacity; 60% of capacity additions in the OECD replace retired plants Additions Net additions Retirements 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Natural gas Oil Coal Biomass and waste Nuclear Wind, solar, etc. Hydro Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) 6
CO 2 Emissions : Unchanged despite Fuel Switching Gt 45.0 44.8 44.6 44.4 44.2 44.0 43.8 44.84 Energy-related CO2 Emissions in 2040-0.8 Less Nuclear & Less Renewables CO2 0.2 0.1 Rebound Effect CO2 0.0 0.4 44.77 Unconventional Resource Development Scenario 43.6 Reference Fuel switching Nuclear drop Drop in solar, wind, etc. Biofuel drop Consumption growth through price drops Development Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) 7
Tackling Climate Change: Need to Speed Up! Gt 800 Cumulative energy-related CO 2 emissions Total emissions 1900-2035 60 50 CO2 Emission Pathways for the Overshoot Scenario GtCO2 Gt-CO 2 IEEJ Reference Scenario 600 400 200 Non-OECD Non-OECD 49% OECD OECD 51% 40 30 IEEJ Advanced Technology Scenario 1900-1929 1930-1959 1960-1989 1990-2012 2013-2035 20 10 0 The range for the 450 ppm CO 2 -eq. scenarios in EMF22-10 -20-30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 (Source) Clarke et al. (2009), International climate policy architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios, Energy Economics, vol. 31, pp. 64-81. Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) 8
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