To adapt the global climate change by developing circular Gao Shangbin Director General Agro-Environmental Protection Institution, MOA/CAAS Jun 7, 2011
Outline A. The Green House Gas emissions in Chinese B. The effect of climate change on Chinese C. The emission reduction mesures in D. weakness and suggestion
A. The Green House Gas emission in Chinese ) China Paddy Field Methane Flux (Tg CH 4 y -1 16 14 12 In 2004, The GHG emission was 6.1 billion ton CO 2 in China including 17% from. 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Methane from paddy field Methane emission from livestock is 30%-40% of China s total methane emission and 66% from. 600 500 400 300 200 排放量 ( 万吨 ) 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 年份 Methane from livestock 黄牛乳牛水牛马驴骡骆驼猪山羊绵羊兔
A. The Green House Gas emission in Chinese 25.0 Global Canada USA China UK Europe 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 CO 2 人均排放量 (t/ 人 ) 0.0 1985 年 1990 年 1995 年 2000 年 2005 年 Although the total emission of China is high, the average emission level per capital is quite low, only 12% to USA, less than half to UK.(World Bank)
B. The effect of climate change on Chinese 1. The effects on planting The temperature, rain fall changes affect the (global warming, cropping system changing, species of crops changes) Extreme weather happens often(drought, frost and flood) Insect and disease increase (Area expand, loss aggravate) Soil fertility change( Organic material degrade fast) Fertilizer efficiency changed Lack of water for irrigation 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 降水的变化 我国气候变化的客观事实 西部盆地近 50 年降水已增加 50~75% 75%! 西部 华南降水呈增加趋势,20~ 60mm/10 年 华北 东北大部降水呈减少趋势,20 ~ 40mm/10 年 受灾面积 Damage (damage Area(1000 area ) hectare) 1950 1959 1971 1980 1989 1998 IInundated Area(1000 hectare) 成灾面积 (inundated 1000 hacter) 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 受灾面积成灾面积 Damage Area Inundated Area 年份 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 年份 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 1956~2002 年中国年降水量变化趋势
B. The effect of climate change on Chinese 2. Effect on the livestock Happiness decrease Feed intake decrease Growth inhibition Breeding rate low The quality and quantity of milk lose Cost increase (CRA-CMA, 2010)
C. The emission reduction methods in The circumstance of Chinese a Huge population, requirement of food is large b Livestock develop quickly, but still fall behind developed countries a lot c Average meat and egg production is low d The difference between rural and urban is big 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 The average livestock production(kg/perso n/year) 0 Developed countries Developing Countries 1980 年 2009 年 China 1000 100 10 Average comsumption (kg/person/year) 1 Crop meat egg milk EastNortheast Central West Urban
C. The emission reduction methods in Method 1: Developing circular Households-biogas-system Greenhouse Crops Dung waste Digester Pig-biogas-fruit in South Four in one in North Reuse the waste from livestock by household Each household could reduce CO 2 emission 1.43-2.02t/a
C. The emission reduction methods in Method 1: Developing circular Households-biogas-system Domestic sewage Dung Cooking Solar heater Toilet Solar house 1 2 Biomass digester Solar Water pool Fertilizer pool 3 Five in one Water Sand basin IrrigationFruit Cistern Pump 4 5 Biogas Biogas slurry Water Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1000 Households using biogas CO Reduction 2 (million ton) 4000 4400 4800 5200 5600 6000 6400 6800 7200 7600 8000 6 6.6 7.2 7.8 8.4 9 9.6 10.2 10.8 11.4 12 Take 2010 statistics as example to predict the future figures.
C. The emission reduction methods in Method 1: Developing circular large and medium biogas plants Reference Number Volume Biomass pool 600-1000 m 3 Fertilizer ( t/a) 800-1000 Biogas (1000m 3 /a) 548 Methane(t/a) 238 CO 2 -e(t/a) 5000 By 2010, China have built 4700 biogas factories. 2010-2020 China could reduce 3.4 billion CO 2 emission from biogas plants
C. The emission reduction methods in Method 1: Developing circular integrated crop and livestock Straw 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 92.38 74.06 68.83 A(40:60) B(40:60) C 60:40) CH4(kg/ 年 ) Dung 16 15 Cropping coupling breeding: ensiling the straw, increase milk by 17%, reduce the methane by 20%, dung for fertilizer, reduce N 2 O by 30%. 14 13 12 11 10 9 10.73 12.56 12.97 Milk(Kg/d) 8 A(40:60) B(40:60) C(60:40) Feed
3.The emission reduction methods in Method 1: Developing circular Forest, grass and livestock coupling Before After Grass Dung Treat Soil organic carbon (g kg -1 ) Annual soil carbon sequestration (g m -2 a -1 ) Rate of carbon sequestration ( kgc hm -2 a -1 ) Cropping 33.31 32.27 FGL 40.45 103.73 714.52 The FGL showed it could increase the soil carbon.
3.The emission reduction methods in Method 1: Developing circular Comprehensive Duck-rice Forest-Livestock Fermentation bed breeding All comprehensive could reduce the emission.
3.The emission reduction methods in Method 2: Developing clean animal production and renewable energy The first CDM project in China GHG(t CO 2 -e) Baseline activity Leakage Emission reduction 81140 10512 4235 66393 Emission source is chicken and hens. By 2010, the CDM projects are 870, about 37% in the world which could reduce 222 million ton CO 2 of global 60.5%.
3.The emission reduction methods in Method 2: Developing renewable energy By the end of 2010 Solar heaters:25 million m 2 Passive Solar house:13 million m 2 Solar cookers:530,000
3. The emission reduction methods in Method 2: Developing renewable energy Small Wind Power: 48934 housess, 53 million KW Solar lighting system 15,000 KW Micro hydro Power: 8 million KW
3.The emission reduction methods in Method 3:Low carbon 三低 农业 Low energy consumption Low pollution Low emission Saving energy Efficiency first Clean production 三型 农业 低碳 农业 五大危机 替代农业 Pollution Food Safety Biodiversity Bottle neck of energy Unsustainable
3. The emission reduction methods in Method 4: Other environmental friendly techniques Soil testing and fertilizer formulating IPM Water saving irrigation Minimum tillage
3. The emission reduction methods in Method 4: Other environmental friendly techniques Soil testing and fertilizer formulating Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 合计 Fertilizer saving(ai 1000 ton) 270 530 800 1200 1500 4300 Saving Coal (1000 tce) 800 1600 2400 3600 4500 12900 CO 2 reduction (1000 ton) 840 1690 2530 3800 12000 20870 Reduction of nitrate loss (1000 ton) 2670 5330 8000 12000 15000 43000
3.The emission reduction methods in Method 4: Other environmental friendly techniques Feed allocate Methane Concentration: Roughage 8:92 50:50 70:30 l/day 15.8 14.1 13.6 g/100g DM 2.1 1.7 1.5 Mix concentration and roughage could reduce cattle emission.
3.The emission reduction methods in Method 4: Other environmental friendly techniques Increase the production rate Milk (kg/year) 4000 5000 6000 Weight Methane( kg/kg milk ) 500 95 (0.0238) 100 (0.020) 105 (0.0175) 600 103 (0.0258) 108 (0.0216) 113 (0.0183) 700 111 (0.0278) 116 (0.0232) 121 (0.0202) Increase the production rate could reduce the emission.
3.The emission reduction methods in Method 5:Increase the soil ability of carbon sequestration From 1985-2006the soil increased 0.65Pg carbon, 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 旱地水田 Dry land Paddy Field annual 25.5Tg; If soil testing and fertilizer formulating carried out national wide, soil carbon capacity would be 75Tg/a; Maxim C sequestration of dry land is about 18g /kg, paddy 土壤固碳效率 ( g O C /k g /y r ) 面上统计地力监测肥料试验保护性耕作 Average Field Fertilizer minimum Experiment Testing tillage field is about 28g/kg, The carbon storage capacity is 39.41PgC in Chinese grassland. Carbon sequestration rate
3. The emission reduction methods in Method 6:Agricultural eco-compensation Jiangsu, Tianjin, Anhui and Yunan pilots showed the advantage of the policies of eco-compensation. The International cooperation between China and EU make the project run well.
3. The emission reduction methods in Method 6:Agricultural eco-compensation a Best practice farming 标准化大葱生产田 Standardization of onion production 设施种苗专业生产 Seed production b Optimize development structure 农林立体发展 Agriculture coupling the forest 污染生态防治 Prevent the non-point pollution
3. The emission reduction methods in Method 6:Agricultural eco-compensation c Use BPF and IPM to save chemical fertilizer 减肥增效技术 Saving the fertilizer 物理防控技术 IPM d Comprehensive utilization of waste 秸秆饲料化技术 Straw as feed 秸秆还田利用 Straw back to field
3. The emission reduction methods in Method 6:Agricultural eco-compensation 围栏禁牧 控制载畜量 Control grazing e Sustainable grazing Control grazing density 退耕还林 Return the grain plots to forestry 退耕还草 Return the grain plots to grass f Protect the eco-system
Achievement 3. The emission reduction methods in Clean energy reach 50 million tce, 30% households are using clean energy. Improve the fertilizer rate, pesticide rate and irrigation rate by 3%, 3-5% and 5%. Set up demonstration sites of circular which could reuse 90% of the waste. Target Promoting the energy saving, non-fossil energy reach 11.4%. Energy consumption of Unit GDP reduces 16%, carbon dioxide emission of Unit GDP reduces 17%. Strengthening natural resources conservation and management, new 50 million mu of water-saving irrigation area, agricultural water use coefficient improve 0.53; Developing circular economy, accelerating cleaner production, realizing the intensive utilization of land, energy, waste exchange cascade utilization, wastewater recycling and pollutant concentration processing; Resource output is at 15%.
D. weakness and suggestion 1. Although lots of emission reduction methods used, the efficiency need to be confirm. We need new monitoring technique, calculating technique and modeling techniques. A case study of emission calculating is urgent need with UK new techniques cooperation. 2. The feeding and other techniques for emission reduction are also needed. We suggest a case study in feed allocate, feed additive, breeding techniques, ecological breeding and livestock waste recycle utilization including the biogas technique with UK experts.
3. Strengthen the ability in adapting climate change through the China-UK cooperation. All kinds of cooperation are welcome in China. Especially, in personnel exchange and policy maker training, technology director training and farmers training. We suggest that the personnel exchange should be in the first place. Young researchers need more experiences, the cooperation will make them mature quickly.
Thank you for your attention!