Reforming, or transforming, Common Agricultural Policy? EURAGRI Conference, Vienna, Austria 1 October, 2012 Marcus Carson, PhD Senior Research Fellow, SEI Associate Professor of Sociology, Stockholm University Carson - Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012
CAP's Challenge - Integrate Interdependent Goals Food security Long term viability of food production Territorrial balance Economic viability of diverse farming modes Common Agricultural Policy Environmental Protection Current & long term viability of ecological systems Carson - Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012
EU's Challenge - Navigating Needed Policy Change A B Carson - Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012
Most policy problems are caused by the solutions to the previous policy problems -Amory Lovins Carson - Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012 4
Key transition themes from EEA Green CAP expert workshop Increasingly pressing threats emerging: Food security (defined at EU scale) not an immediate threat, but problems loom on more distant horizon Economic viability / territorial balance Semi-subsistence farming endangered Demographic changes Environmental protection / ecosystems Resource scarcities Pollution Climate change Transformation needed rather than reform paradigm shift needed Carson - Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012
Policy Problems of the CAP Economic Viability Environment Ecosystem health / resilience Carson - Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012
Paradigm: a conceptual model for problem solving Carson - Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012 7
Conceptual model of a problem a blueprint, but not reality Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012 8
Key transition themes from EEA Green CAP expert workshop Reduce ecosystems impact of Euro agriculture Reduce resource inputs, recapture nutrients, minimize waste Embrace diversity of European agriculture Different practices are suited to delivering on mixed goals Revitalizing ecosystem services as the core purpose of the CAP Payments for ecosystem benefits rather than compensation for forgone productivity Carson - Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012
CAP's Challenge- Integrate Interdependent Goals Food security Long term viability of food production Territorrial balance Economic viability of diverse farming modes Common Agricultural Policy Promoting Ecosystem Services Environmental Protection Current & long term viability of ecological systems Carson - Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012
Thank you!
Institutionalized Paradigm Shifts: examples Shift from Newtonian physics to relativity (scientific paradigm shift Thomas Kuhn, 1972) Shift from Keynesian to neo-liberal economic policy (Peter Hall, 1993) Shift of EU policies on asbestos from regulation to prohibition (incremental change) Shift of EU food policy focus from constructing single market to public health/food safety priority (crisis driven) (Carson, 2004) Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 12
Policy Paradigm what does it define? Authority Complex Expert Complex Conceptualization / Model of Issue/Problems Goals & Priorities A Solution Complex
Policy Paradigm Policy Regime Authority Complex Expert Complex Institution building Authority Complex Expert Complex Conceptualization / Model of Issue/Problems Conceptualization / Model of Issue/Problems Goals & Priorities A, B, C Solution Complex Outcomes Goals & Priorities A, B, C Solution Complex Adapted from Carson, et al 2009
Food security Net balance of external trade in meat and self-sufficiency (2009) 1500 109% Percentage: Self sufficiency Global food crisis.. the responsibility of the EU? Net balance (1000 tonnes) 1000 500 0 96% 101% 76% 61% 90% 500 Pigmeat Beef Poultrymeat Sheep and goatmeat Equine meat* Other types of meat*
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Pig meat (2003 2010) Beef (2003 2010) Sheep and goat meat (2003 2010) Poultry (2002 2010) 0 Belgium Bulgaria Czech Rep. Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden UK 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Food security Self-sufficiency (%) in cereal, potatoes and vegetables Cereals (excluding rice) (2005 2010) Potatoes (2007 2011) Vegetables (excluding potatoes) (2002) Belgium Bulgaria Czech Rep. Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden UK Self-sufficiency (%) in the main meat type production Regional support for national food crisis within EU?
Food security (Agrifuture, 2011) Proportional change of consumption (%) of different types of meat, EU-15 average. 50% 40% 1990 2007 30% 20% 10% 0% Pigmeat Beef Poultry Mutton/goatmeat Other meat
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 % grassland and meadow of total UAA % fodder crop of total UAA 0 Territorial balance Belgium Bulgaria Czech Rep. Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden UK EU 27 Belgium Bulgaria Czech R. Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden UK Share of fodder, grassland and meadow of total UAA 5 4 3 2 1 0 Share of UAA devoted to energy and biomass crops (% of UAA)
1 000 800 600 400 200 Territorial balance <2 ha 2 4,9 ha 5 9,9 ha 10 19,9 ha 20 29,9 ha 30 49,9 ha 50 99,9 ha >100 ha 0 Belgium Bulgaria Czech R. Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Belgium Bulgaria Czech Rep. Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden UK Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden UK Number of holdings - divided by farm size 15 000 000 12 500 000 10 000 000 7 500 000 5 000 000 2 500 000 0 2.485.570 Farm areas (ha) - divided by farm size <2 ha 2 4,9 ha 5 9,9 ha 10 19,9 ha 20 29,9 ha 30 49,9 ha >100 ha
Environment Annual diffuse nitrogen emission from agriculture Triazine pesticides found in groundwater between 2003 and 2007 (conc. >0.1 g/l)
Regional and production diversity Clustering of Member States using the intensive-extensive/high-low external input continua
Regional and production diversity Intensive-extensive and high-low external input continua Extensive BG LT PT RO LV EE MT High external input LU IT UK ES SK SE Low external input CY SI GR AT CZ PL FI FR DE BE IE HU NL DK Intensive Level of Intensity: Cereal crop yield (kg/ha) Livestock density (LU/ha) Pig production (degree of self sufficiency) Poultry production (degree of self sufficiency) Level of external inputs: Manufactured Nitrogen input (kg/ha) Manufactured Phosphorous input (kg/ha) Manufactured Pesticide input (kg/ha) Share of organic production (% of total UAA)
CAP's Challenge/Opportunities Food security Global, regional & national Self sufficiency Nutritional demands Common Agricultural Policy Territorrial balance Agricultural production Diverse farming systems Promoting Ecosystem Services Environment Biodiversity Water, Nutrients & Energy Ecosystem services Carson - Vienna, Austria - 1 October 2012