Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research EAER Agroscope Thomas Nemecek Agroscope, LCA research group Zurich, Switzerland EAAP-ATF 27 August 2018 www.agroscope.ch I good food, healthy environment
Overview A global perspective: Environmental impacts of animal-based food Comparison of animal-based vs. plant-based food Potentials of changed diets A country's perspective: Switzerland Quantify reduction of environmental impacts through optimised diets Identify optimised diets Determine consequences for land use, animal herds and imports Modelling system Scenarios investigated Results of optimisation Environmental impacts Optimised diets Implication for agricultural land use, animal herds and food self-sufficiency Conclusions 2
High environmental impacts through animal products 3 Source: Poore & Nemecek (2018), Science 360 (6392), 987-992
Animal-based food has much higher impacts than plant-based alternatives (on a protein basis) Source: Poore & Nemecek (2018), Science 360 (6392), 987-992 4
Changing global diets Animal-product free diets could reduce most environmental impacts by ½ Halving consumption of animal-based products by avoiding the high-impact producers reduce most environmental impacts by ⅓ synergistic effects 5 Source: Poore & Nemecek (2018), Science 360 (6392), 987-992
Overview of the modelling system Functional unit: Nutrition of the Swiss population System boundary: Food supply + Including upstream processes + Including environmental impacts abroad through feed and food imports to Switzerland Excluding environmental imports from exports Excluding retail, food preparation and consumption Source: Zimmermann et al. (2018), Agroscope Science 55. 6
Minimisation of environmental impact (ReCiPe method) Scenarios investigated Additional conditions: 1. Whole agricultural area and arable land in Switzerland used for food production 2. Food exports kept constant at current levels 3. Current deviations from nutritional recommendations are tolerated, but no further increase is allowed Scenario Reference Min ReCiPe FP FP/Cal FoodWaste Current situation Covering nutritional requirements Composition of ration according to food pyramid Composition of ration and energy intake according to food pyramid All preventable food waste during consumption was avoided Source: Zimmermann et al. (2018), Agroscope Science 55. 7
Pt *E+06 2'500 2'000 Total environmental impacts can be reduced over 50% 100% ReCiPe Food imports Feed imports 1'500 45% 52% 49% 39% Processing Animals 1'000 Plants 500 Total (less exports) 0 Reference Min ReCiPe FP FP/Cal FoodWaste Target function: Minimisation of ReCiPe Mainly achieved by reducing food impacts, feed imports and animal herds. Further reductions through reduced calorie intake and avoided food waste. Source: Zimmermann et al. (2018), Agroscope Science 55. 8
Climate change impacts can be reduced even more kg CO2 eq *E+06 15'000 100% IPCC GWP 100a Total (excluding exports) Food imports Feed imports 10'000 41% 48% 44% 34% Processing Animals Plants 5'000 0 Reference Min ReCiPe FP FP/Cal FoodWaste Target function: Minimisation ReCiPe Source: Zimmermann et al. (2018), Agroscope Science 55. 9
Optimised diets differ significantly 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Quantities before deduction of losses during consumption g/person/day 13 245 210 308 275 128 144 355 120 259 44 128 45 512 198 239 81 49 706 470 44 76 45 545 283 52 Min ReCiPe 342 307 Less meat, alcohol, vegetable oils 44 666 452 42 70 43 500 48 oconstant consumption of dairy products 43 152 274 44 86 43 450 77 226 FP FP/Cal Food Waste 28 39 69 144 428 158 344 231 203 338 65 412 Reference Reference Estimated energy intake (total of 2360 kcal/person/day) kcal/person/day +More cereals, potatoes, fruits, vegetables, legumes incl. peanuts 318 114 39 104 152 24 24 424 95 62 322 154 495 Min ReCiPe 190 250 82 231 63 397 29 708 FP 173 104 140 23 229 76 211 60 362 26 636 FP/Cal 207 41 147 26 328 98 231 71 315 52 754 Food Waste Nuts Tofu Legumes Beans/Peas Vegetables Fruits Fruit juice Cocoa Alcohol. beverages Confectionery Fats Oils Eggs Fish Meat 1 Dairy products Potatoes Grains 1 (without butter + cream) Target function: Minimisation of ReCiPe Source: Zimmermann et al. (2018), 10 Agroscope Science 55.
Implications for Swiss agricultural area use ha 1'000'000 121'905 Perm. grassland extensive 800'000 300'336 319'925 277'913 295'075 355'295 Perm. grassland medium intensive Perm. grassland intensive 600'000 400'000 200'000 316'351 274'339 299'189 238'969 191'137 19'114 19'114 19'114 19'114 23'719 40'113 40'113 37'377 40'113 125'822 89'352 89'352 89'352 89'513 272'127 292'202 292'202 294'939 292'041 Other areas Permanent crops Temporary grassland Arable crops 0 Reference Min ReCiPe FP FP/Cal FoodWaste Source: Zimmermann et al. (2018), Agroscope Science 55. 11 Target function: Minimisation ReCiPe
Implications for Swiss animal herds Livestock units 1'200'000 1'000'000 800'000 600'000 400'000 200'000 0 32'267 27'788 183'491 39'545 44'805 48'155 117'362 179'275 42'189 94'464 239'265 41'420 42'254 41'589 41'615 78'343 20'435 101'901 89'432 165'736 170'316 187'455 206'315 235'660 42'159 51'540 41'603 41'603 12'584 88'771 98'323 232'608 145'794 91'869 107'843 233'048 Reference Min ReCiPe FP FP/Cal FoodWaste Laying hens Broilers Pigs Goats Sheep Horses Calf fattening Beef fattening Suckler cows Cattle rearing Other dairy cows 5600 kg 6800 kg 7500 kg Dairy cows Target function: Minimisation ReCiPe 12 Source: Zimmermann et al. (2018), Agroscope Science 55.
Conclusions Even the lowest-impact animal-based products have higher environmental impacts than plant-based alternatives Reducing consumption of high-impact products by avoiding high-impact producers creates synergistic mitigation effects The environmental impacts of the diet of the Swiss population could be reduced by over 50 % in the optimized scenarios by reducing feed imports, food imports and animal production impacts The composition of the average diet needs significant changes: -70% meat +35% grains and potatoes Milk consumption remaining at current level Optimised diet would be closer to nutritional recommendations Swiss agriculture would focus mainly on crop and dairy production Self-sufficiency of Swiss food supply would increase 13
Thank you for your attention Thomas Nemecek thomas.nemecek@agroscope.admin.ch Agroscope good food, healthy environment www.agroscope.admin.ch 14