APEC Workshop on Small Hydro and Renewable Grid Integration Ha Noi, Viet Nam 3-5 April 2013 Renewable Energy Electricity Generation Outlook in the APEC Region and Related Issues for Viet Nam APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2013 Tran Thanh Lien Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
APEC Member Economies From APEC website, http://hrd.apec.org/index.php/image:apec-map.gif 2
APEC Energy Outlook 2013 APERC has historically produced an APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook every 2 or 3 years The 5 th Edition was published in February 2013 3
Projected Electricity Generation by Source 9000 8487 Total Power Generation (TWh) 25000 21792 20000 15000 13235 10000 5000 6933 0 1990 2000 2009 2010 2015 2020 2035 Power Generating (TWh) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 7217 6111 5456 3449 2971 2690 2414 2442 2247 2095 1686 1634 1221 329 302 170 92 2009 2020 2035 Coal Oil Gas Hydro NRE Nuclear Source: APERC Analysis (2012) Source: APERC Analysis (2012) 4
VN INA PNG RP PE PRC CHL THA MAS MEX HKC RUS CT CDA AUS ROK NZ SIN USA BD JPN APEC Region Electricity Generation Mix (1990-2035) Coal Oil Gas Hydro NRE Nuclear Import 7.0% 6.0% Annual Growth Rates of Electricity Generation in APEC Economies 16% 17% 16% 14% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% 7% 8% 9% 10% 15% 16% 13% 13% 14% 14% 15% 14% 14% 12% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2010-2035 16% 16% 11% 8% 17% 6% 18% 20% 5% 21% 21% 22% 23% 25% 2.0% 1.0% 39% 42% 45% 48% 49% 46% 43% 41% 40% 39% 0.0% -1.0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 5
Key Finding: Strong Growth in Renewable Power but Modest in Hydro 6000 5000 2095.3 TWh 4000 3000 355.1 TWh NRE 2000 139.1 TWh 2689.8 TWh Hydro 1000 0 1990 2000 2009 2010 2015 2020 2035 Year 6
Key Drivers for the strong NRE growth Supportive government policy Advancements of RE technology 7
Key Drive: APEC Renewable Energy Policy Support is Robust 1. Feed-in-tariffs utilities required to buy electricity from renewables at a guaranteed price 2. Renewable portfolio standards Requirement of utilities to obtain a minimum fraction of their electricity from renewable sources 3. Carbon pricing Tax on CO 2 emissions, which discourages the use of fossil fuels 4. Regulations limiting greenhouse gas emissions Laws which limit the level of GHG emissions on certain fossil generation 5. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies for power generation As a strategy for several APEC developing economies 8
Key Drive: Rapid Declining RE technology costs Trend of module production costs for Solar PV declined sharply. USD 4.5/W in 2000 to USD1.00 /W in 2012 (LBNL) event less USD1.00/W Wind turbine prices had doubled during 2002-2008 then have fallen ~20%-30% in recent years and continues down for the long-term (LBNL) 9
Renewable Energy Generation Output (TWh) Key finding: Significant wind power addition expected in APEC Region 2500 Wind Solar Biomass and others Geothermal 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2010 2020 2035 10
TWh Wind power Generation by Economies 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2020 2035 PRC USA Other APEC 11
TWh Geothermal-based Generation by Economies 70 60 2010 2020 2035 50 40 30 20 10 0 USA INA MEX Other APEC 12
TWh Solar- Based Generation by Economies 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2020 2035 PRC JPN USA Other APEC 13
Related Issues for Viet Nam (1) Opportunities 1. High growing electricity demand 2. Supportive policies Diversification of power generation based on energy security Clear target on RE electricity: 4.5% by 2020 and 6% by 2030 (PDP7) A number of Decrees and Decisions approved by the Prime Minister to offer incentives to RE projects in recent years 14
Related Issues for Viet Nam (2) 4. Viet Nam has experience on the development of small hydropower plants in the past 5. Global aspect Trend of reduction in RE technology costs for wind and PV in the world and the APEC region APEC RE market stronger than expected: increasing over 6 folds from 139 GW to 816 GW between 2010-2035 (APEC outlook 2013) 15
Related Issues for Viet Nam (3) Challenges 1. Institutions issue Electricity Pricing Framework: FIT is just in the initial stage; low electricity price Inadequate policy support in planning, financing, legal framework. 2 Technical issue Lack of infrastructures Lack of RE database system including RE potential maps (for wind, solar, biomass) 16
Related Issues for Viet Nam (4) Distribution network is weak, doesn t meet the higher amount of RE electricity introduced to the grid Insufficient amount of operating reserves due to the RE resources are intermittent 3. None technical issue Still much high capital costs of NRE compared to fossil fuel fired power plants in VN Shortage of human resources especially technical expertise on NRE field Lack of studies on assessment of impact on the grid taking into account the RE resources 17
Renewable Energy Electricity Generation Outlook in the APEC Region and Related Issues for Viet Nam Thank you for your kind attention Tran Thanh Lien, Ph.D Team leader, APERC tran@aperc. ieej.or.jp http://www.ieej.or.jp/aperc 18