The Future of Food from the Sea Steve Gaines Bren School of Environmental Science & Mgmt
Global Demand for Animal Protein 4
Land Area
Population Size
Population 2050
Per Capita Income vs % Protein from Meat
Growth in Wealth
Global Demand for Animal Protein How will this growth be met? ) Growth by 2050 10
1 B hectares Cleared for Agriculture Food production area as fraction of total cropland 3 G tons CO2/yr 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Bad Options on Land Biodiversity, GHG, Nutrient loading challenges - Tilman et al. 2011
Energy Production Livestock Transportation Fossil Fuel Retrieval Agriculture Residential Manufacturing Land Use Waste Disposal Sources of Greenhouse Gases
300" Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood# KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein# 250" 200" 150" 100" 50" 0" Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Fed"Invertebrates" Unfed" Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling" Cost Depends on What is Consumed
Feed 9% 5% Burps 21% 39% Enteric fermentation Manure Feed Feces Land-use change Energy and post-farm 26% The Global Warming Pie Emissions from Everywhere
KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein# 300" 250" 200" 150" 100" 50" Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood# Fisheries 0" Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Fed"Invertebrates" Unfed" Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling" Oceans have Lower GHG Costs
Option 1: Fix Fisheries
% Fisheries with Good Harvest Where We are Today Costello et al. in review
% Fisheries with Good Harvest 8 MMT of Filets Alternative Futures 300 MMT more Fish $40 B more Profits
14 Change in Catch (MMT) 0 1 5 Change Annual Profit ($ Billion) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0.2 4.4 MSY (MMT, of conservation concern) China Thailand Malaysia Viet Nam S. Korea Taiwan Indonesia India Japan Philippines 4 3 2 1 Change in Annual Profit ($ Billion) 0 A 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 10 20 30 Change in Biomass (MMT) Projections for Every Fishing Country
Global Demand for Animal Protein ) Growth by 2050 Fix Fisheries 20
KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein# 300" 250" 200" 150" 100" 50" Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood# Option 2 Aquaculture 0" Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Fed"Invertebrates" Unfed" Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling" Oceans have Lower GHG Costs
A Thought Experiment What are the Environmental Costs? ) Growth by 2050 22
8 Gigatons CO2 Added 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Dairy Pigmeat Poultry Mutton & Goat Beef Rice Eggs Fish Aquaculture Soybean Brown Kelp Wheat Greenhouse Gas Emissions Unfed Aquaculture Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand
140 120 Km3 Water 100 80 60 40 20 0 Eggs Poultry Dairy Rice Wheat Mutton & Goat Beef Pigmeat Soybean Fish Aquaculture Brown Kelp Water Used Unfed Aquaculture Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand
1.4x10 +7 1.2x10 +7 Km2 Added 1.0x10 +7 8.0x10 +6 6.0x10 +6 4.0x10 +6 2.0x10 +6 0 Poultry Dairy Pigmeat Beef Mutton & Goat Wheat Rice Eggs Fish Aquaculture Soybean Area Used Unfed Aquaculture Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand
Thought Experiment Area needed by 2050
75% of South America Thought Experiment Area needed by 2050
95% of NZ 75% of South America Thought Experiment Area needed by 2050
Thought Experiment #2 Greenhouse Warming Potential (Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050
72% of China 132% of USA Thought Experiment #2 Greenhouse Warming Potential (Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050
72% of China 132% of USA 95% of Australia Thought Experiment #2 Greenhouse Warming Potential (Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050
Thought Experiment #3 Freshwater
Lake Huron Thought Experiment #3 Freshwater
Lake Huron Thought Experiment #3 Freshwater
Take Away SURF >>> TURF Shifting Future Diets to More Seafood Behavior Change Remove Constraints New Policies
1.4x10 +7 1.2x10 +7 Km2 Added 1.0x10 +7 8.0x10 +6 6.0x10 +6 4.0x10 +6 Current Global Average Diet 2.0x10 +6 0 Poultry Dairy Pigmeat Beef Mutton & Goat Soybean Wheat Rice Eggs Fish Aquaculture Unfed Aquaculture Area Used Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand
Diet Preferences Are Favorable
Limits on Fishmeal Emerging Feeds Constraints on Fed Aquaculture Feed
New Policies Regulatory reform, Carbon Tax