Can demand-driven breeding increase smallholder adoption? Dr. Viv Anthony, TropAg, 17 th November 2015 1
Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture Create value for resource-poor smallholders in developing countries through innovation in sustainable agriculture and activation of value chains 2
Introduction Agriculture transformation and drivers African modern variety adoption Demand vs. supply-driven breeding Demand-led variety design and capacity building in Africa for plant breeders Conclusions 3
% GDP growth forecasts for 2015 The World in 2015, The Economist 4
% Population growth 2010-2050 Compound annual growth rate 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% -1% -1% -2% Africa Total Asia Urban Latam N.America Rural Europe 3.1 2.1 1.4 1.1 0.1 Source: UNFPA 5
Africa s agriculture is changing From subsistence to more market-led systems Smallholders are generating surpluses to sell in local, regional and international markets Demand is rising with urbanization, growth of middle classes, and changing lifestyles New breed of consumers- focused, choosy and ready to pay for quality 6
Multi-country retailers in Africa Promar, Insight June 2014 Number of stores 7
Consumer preferences Local chicken breeds Taste and texture preferred Price premiums High producing genetics adapted to low input production systems required 8
US corn grain yield (t/ha) Crop breeding evolution 12 10 8 6 4 2 Traditional breeding Selections, Crossings Hybridisation Inbreeding Hybrid vigour Biotechnology Large-scale sequencing Genome editing Marker-assisted breeding Gene discovery Gene insertion Generation of traits by gene editing 1940 1980 2020 2060 9
Cumulative number food crops sequenced Genome sequencing revolution 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2 3 5 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Year 8 13 18 30 40 46 10
Genome sequencing revolution Over 50 food crops and animal species sequenced African orphan crops consortium (AOCC) 100 indigenous African crop species (100 diverse lines each) 11
Variety adoption in Africa Crop Survey area (million ha) % Modern varieties Maize (WCA) 9.9 66 Cassava 14.6 40 Groundnut 6.3 29 Bean 2.5 29 Cowpea 11.4 27 Pearl millet 14.1 18 Sweet potato 1.5 7 Banana 0.9 6 Walker et al (2014) DIIVA study 20 crops 30 countries 1150 cultivars < 35% modern variety adoption 12
Smallholder farmer decisions Variety adoption Awareness Availability Profitability Risk Extension service Seed distribution Lack quality seed Credit/cash flow problems Technology perception Socio-economic factors 13 Mwangi and Kariuki (2015) 13
Smallholder farmer decisions Variety adoption Awareness Availability Profitability Risk Variety performance Mwangi and Kariuki (2015) 14
Supply-driven production Science and technology push Plant breeders Seed producers Farmers Consumers Seed Distributors Traders Whole-salers Markets Retailers Consumers Processors 15
Demand-driven Plant breeders Seed producers Farmers Consumers Seed Distributors Traders Whole-salers Markets Retailers Consumers Processors Product adoption Market pull 16
Demand-led principles Client preferences Value chains Market drivers Market research Public and private partnerships Multi-discipline teams 17
Swiss-Australian-African PPP International partners Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture (SFSA) Crawford Fund (CF) Australian International Food Security Research Centre (AIFSRC/ACIAR) University of Queensland (UQ) African R&D partners 18
Swiss-Australian-African PPP African partners West African crop improvement centre, Ghana (WACCI) Biosciences Eastern and Central Africa, Kenya (BecA) African crop improvement centre, South Africa (ACCI) University of Makerere, Ruforum, Uganda University of Nairobi, Kenya Rwanda Agriculture Board CIAT Tanzania, Malawi ASARECA 19
Demand-led crop variety design for emerging markets in Africa Post-graduate education module for plant breeders Msc/PhD and continuing professional development Best practices from public and private sectors Implementation in National breeding programmes o Ghana/tomatoes o Rwanda/beans Policy research and advocacy managers,government officials, stakeholders 20
Demand-led training module 1. Principles of demand-led breeding 2. Visioning and foresight 3. Clients needs and value chains 4. Variety design 5. Development strategy and planning 6. Breeding investment decision-making 7. Monitoring, evaluation and learning 21
Variety design specification Yield Value chain Consumers Processors Retailers Biotic stress Crop handling Harvesting Storage Transport Abiotic stress Seed Fertility Production cost > 60 traits quantified vs. lead varieties 22
Differentiation Trait importance 10 8 6 Niche opportunity Winning traits Yield Plant architecture Biotic stress Abiotic stress Crop handling Consumer 4 2 Low potential Essential traits 0 20 40 60 80 % Market demand 100 23
Conclusions Compelling benefits are needed for smallholders to adopt new varieties and breeds Demand-led product design is a key methodology to achieve greater use of genetics PPPs and multi-disciplinary teams required Genomic science needs to be utilised in demandled breeding approaches to serve smallholders and their value chains 24
Invitation Demand-led breeding forum Thursday morning 09.30-12.30 Global Change Institute University of Queensland Building 25, Staff House Rd St Lucia campus All welcome G.persley@cgiar.org Prof. Gabrielle Persley Prof. Pangirayi Tongoona Prof. Shimelis Hussein Mr. Augustine Musoni Dr. Viv Anthony 25
Thank you www.syngentafoundation.org Demand-led variety design 26