City of Kingston Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study Public Information Centre #2 December 3, 2018
City of Kingston Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study Jamie Cook DIRECTOR Land Economics
Study Purpose The City of Kingston is preparing an update to its long-term population, housing and employment projections to the year 2046 Kingston C.M.A, City of Kingston, Boundary Area as well as by neighbourhood. The results of this analysis are intended to guide decisionmaking and policy development specifically related to planning and growth management, urban land needs, master planning and municipal finance. This study is particularly significant, as the projections made in 2013 were higher than that experienced in the City as reported by Statistics Canada's 2016 Census. 2
Summary of Key Findings The City of Kingston is anticipated to experience steady population and employment growth over the next 30 years. Including all post-secondary students, the City s population base is forecast to increase by approximately 29,000 persons and 11,000 jobs, respectively between 2016 and 2046. To accommodate forecast population growth, the City will need to add approximately 13,200 new dwelling units to its housing base over this same time period. 3
Overview of Regional/Local Economic and Demographic Trends
Historical Population Growth Rates, 2001 to 2016 Provincial, Regional and City-Wide Trends Source: 2001 to 2016 Statistics Canada Census profiles by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. 5
Kingston C.M.A. Labour Force and Employment Change from 2006 to 2016 2006 2011 2016 Employed Labour Force 74,930 77,780 77,330 Employment (Jobs) Ratio of Employment to Labour Force 79,585 83,045 83,315 106% 107% 108% The Kingston C.M.A. serves as a growing regional employment centre to its surrounding commuter-shed. Source: Employment data derived from 2006 to 2016 Statistics Canada Place of Work data; labour force data derived from 2016 Statistics Canada Census profiles by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. 6
Kingston C.M.A. Population and Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2046
Key Drivers of Population Growth, 2016 to 2046 Kingston C.M.A. and City of Kingston Similar to the provincial and regional levels, population growth at the Kingston C.M.A. and City-wide levels will be heavily driven by net migration. Long-term net migration within the Kingston C.M.A. and the City of Kingston is expected to be driven by the following factors: Kingston C.M.A. s growing importance as a regional commercial centre; Population growth of the 55+ population; The City s geographic location along the Highway 401 corridor; and Quality of life factors. 8
Historical & Forecast Labour Force, 2001 to 2046 Kingston C.M.A. Between 2016 and 2041 the Kingston C.M.A labour force base is forecast to increase by approximately 7,400. Decline in the labour force participation rate is due to the aging of the population and labour force base within the Kingston C.M.A. 9
Historical & Forecast Population, 1991 to 2046 Kingston C.M.A. Population Scenarios Source: Data from Statistics Canada Demography Division (Catalogue no. C91C0005). 2016 to 2046 forecast prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. Note: Population includes a net Census undercount estimated at approximately 3.1%. Forecast population figures have been rounded. 10
Historical & Forecast Population, 1996 to 2041 (Base Case) Kingston C.M.A. as a share of Eastern Ontario (includes City of Ottawa) Source: 1996 to 2016 derived from Statistics Canada Census profiles. 2016 to 2041 Kingston C.M.A. forecast prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. 2017 to 2041 Eastern Ontario population taken from Ministry of Finance, Spring 2017. Note: Population figures include a net Census undercount estimated at approximately 3.1%. Eastern Ontario population includes the City of Ottawa. 11
Historical & Forecast Employment, 1 1996 to 2046 (Base Case) Kingston C.M.A. Over the next 30 years, the Kingston C.M.A. is forecast to increase by just under 13,000 jobs. Approximately, twothirds of forecast job growth is anticipated within commercial and institutional sectors. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. 1 Reflects the total number of jobs within the Kingston C.M.A., including employment by usual place of work, work at home, and no fixed place of work (N.F.P.O.W.). 2 Statistics Canada defines no fixed place of work (N.F.P.O.W.) employees as "persons who do not go from home to the same work place location at the beginning of each shift." Such persons include building and landscape contractors, travelling salespersons, independent truck drivers, etc. 3 Defined as the number of jobs in a municipality divided by the number of residents. Note: Figures may not add up precisely due to rounding. * Note: An employment activity rate is defined as the ratio of jobs to population. 12
Historical & Forecast Employment, 1996 to 2046 Kingston C.M.A. Employment Scenarios 13
City of Kingston Population, Housing and Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2046
Components of Population Growth, 2016 to 2046 City of Kingston Population growth is driven by two components: 1) Net Migration; 2) Natural Increase (Births less Deaths). Similar to the Kingston C.M.A., net migration (in migration less outmigration) will represent the key source of population growth in the City of Kingston over the next several decades. Forecast population change associated with natural increase is estimated as follows: 2016-2031: (- 1,000) 2031-2046: (- 5,400) 15
Historical & Forecast Net Migration, 1986 to 2046 (Base Case) City of Kingston Net migration will continue to be the main driver of population growth in the City of Kingston. 16
Historical & Forecast Population, 1986 to 2046 (Base Case) City of Kingston Source: Data from Statistics Canada Demography Division (Catalogue no. 91C0005). 2016 to 2046 forecast prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. Note: Population figures include a net Census undercount estimated at approximately 3.1%. Population figures prior to 2001 include the City of Kingston, Township of Kingston, and the Township of Pittsburgh. Population figures in the forecast have been rounded. Over the 2016 to 2046 forecast period, the permanent population base is forecast to increase by approximately 18,700 persons, or 0.5% annually. 17
Historical & Forecast Population by Age Cohort, 1991 to 2046 (Base Case) City of Kingston The City s permanent population base will continue to age over the forecast period. The share of the 65+ age group is projected to increase from 19% in 2016 to 25% in 2046. Conversely, the City s share of youth population (0-19) is anticipated to decline from 20% in 2016 to 16% in 2046. Source: Data from Statistics Canada Demography Division (Catalogue no. 91C0005). 2016 to 2046 forecast prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. Note: Population figures include a net Census undercount estimated at approximately 3.1%. Population figures prior to 2001 include the City of Kingston, Township of Kingston, and the Township of Pittsburgh. 18
Historical & Forecast Population, 1986 to 2046 City of Kingston Population Scenarios Source: Data derived from a custom order from Statistics Canada Demography Division (Catalogue no. C91C0005). 2016 to 2046 forecast prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. Note: Population includes a net Census undercount estimated at approximately 3.1%. Population figures prior to 2001 include the City of Kingston, Township of Kingston, and the Township of Pittsburgh. Forecast population figures have been rounded. 19
Historical & Forecast Employment, 1996 to 2046 (Base Case) City of Kingston Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. 1 Reflects the total number of jobs within the City of Kingston, including employment by usual place of work, work at home, and no fixed place of work (N.F.P.O.W.). 2 Statistics Canada defines no fixed place of work (N.F.P.O.W.) employees as "persons who do not go from home to the same work place location at the beginning of each shift." Such persons include building and landscape contractors, travelling salespersons, independent truck drivers, etc. 3 Defined as the number of jobs in a municipality divided by the number of residents. Note: Figures may not add up precisely due to rounding. Between 2016 and 2046, the City of Kingston employment base is forecast to increase by approximately 10,900 jobs. Approximately, 60% of forecast job growth is anticipated within commercial and institutional sectors. 20
Historical & Forecast Employment, 1996 to 2046 City of Kingston Employment Scenarios 21
Historical & Forecast Household Increase, 1991 to 2046 (Base Case) City of Kingston Note: Household figures prior to 2001 include the City of Kingston, Township of Kingston, and the Township of Pittsburgh. Figures have been rounded. 22
Historical & Forecast Households 1 by Density Type, 1991 to 2046 (Base Case) City of Kingston Low Density 2 Medium Density 3 High Density 4 Total 1991 to 2016 57% 16% 25% 11,600 2016 to 2031 36% 16% 48% 6,900 2016 to 2046 34% 14% 51% 10,800 usual place of residence elsewhere in Canada or abroad. 2 Includes single and semi-detached. 3 Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes. 4 Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments. City of Kingston Households by Density Type Source: 1991 to 2016 data from Statistics Canada Census profiles. 2016 to 2046 forecast prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. 1 In accordance with Statistics Canada, a household refers to a person or group of persons who occupy the same dwelling and do not have a Note: Household figures prior to 2001 include the City of Kingston, Township of Kingston, and the Township of Pittsburgh. Figures have been rounded. 23
City of Kingston Post-Secondary Student Population and Housing Forecast, 2016 to 2046
Total Population and Households, 2006 to 2046 City of Kingston Population 2006 2016 2006-2016 Growth Households 2006 2016 2006-2016 Growth Permanent 121,800 127,600 5,900 5% Permanent 48,900 53,500 4,600 9% Students not Captured in Census Data 17,300 23,600 6,300 36% Students not Captured in Census Data 2,730 4,050 1,320 48% Total 139,100 151,300 12,200 8% Total 51,630 57,550 5,920 11% The growth rate in the City s student population and housing base outpaced the permanent population between 2006 and 2016. 25
Post-Secondary Student Population City of Kingston Living at Home 2016 Full-Time Enrollment 28,600 Off-Campus 22,300 On-Campus 6,300 Rental Housing Permanent Rental Housing Non-Permanent ~15,000 Student Population Not Captured by Census 23,600 Students not captured in Census data account for about 83% of full-time enrollment 6 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. Note: Figures presented are for 2016. 1 Approximately 89% and 46% of full-time students at Queen s University and St. Lawrence College (Kingston Campus), respectively are estimated to be non-permanent. All (100%) full-time students at Royal Military College in Kingston are considered non-permanent. 26
Post-Secondary Student Population, 2016 to 2046 City of Kingston Enrollment Growth 11,500 2016 Full-Time Enrollment 28,500 Students not captured in Census data is forecast to account for about 90% of full-time enrollment growth Student Population 10,400 On-Campus Population 2,500 Off-Campus Population 7,900 2046 Full-Time Enrollment 40,000 Off-Campus Student Housing Need, 2016-2046 Off-Campus Housing Units 2,400 Note: Student population and housing forecast based on enrollment projections prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018. 27
Total Population & Housing Growth, 2016 to 2046 (Including Post-Secondary Students) City of Kingston Post-secondary students are anticipated to comprise just over one-third of the total population growth within the City of Kingston between 2016 to 2046. Between 2016 and 2046, the City of Kingston s total population base (including all postsecondary students) is forecast to increase by approximately 29,100. 28
City of Kingston Population, Housing and Employment Forecast by Boundary Area, 2016 to 2046
City of Kingston - Boundary Area 30
Population, Housing and Employment Forecast by Boundary Area, 2016 to 2046 City of Kingston The population, housing and employment allocations by Boundary Area were developed based on a detailed review of several local supply and demand factors: Supply of potential future housing stock in the development approvals process and designated greenfield by housing structure type; Housing intensification opportunities; Historical development activity, 2001 to 2016; A review of historical residential building permit activity (new units only) by structure type by urban community and remaining rural area; Anticipated market demand by demographic group (i.e. students, young adults, families, empty-nesters and seniors). 31
Total Population Growth by Boundary Area, 2016 to 2046 City of Kingston The vast majority of forecast population growth is anticipated to be accommodated in Central Kingston and Kingston West. Approximately, 75% of population growth within Central Kingston will be driven by post-secondary students. 32
City of Kingston by Boundary Area, 2016 to 2046 Total Employment Growth Employment growth is anticipated to be concentrated in Central Kingston and Kingston West. 33
Next Steps and Timelines
Next Steps & Timelines City of Kingston Population, Household and Employment Projections Study Start Up & Review of Planning Policy City of Kingston Population, Household and Employment Projections Preliminary Findings Public Information Centre (PIC) #2 Final Report July 2018 October 2018 November 2018 January 2019 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 August 2018 September 2018 December 2018 February 2019 Economic and Demographic Trends Public Information Centre (PIC) #1 City of Kingston Allocations by Boundary Area/ Neighbourhood 35
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