World Solvents Industry Study with Forecasts to 2007 & 2012 for 14 Countries & Six Regions STUDY #1715 September 2003 $4800 The Freedonia Group www.freedoniagroup.com The First Choice In Industry Research 767 Beta Drive Cleveland, OH 44143-2326 USA Tel: 800.927.5900 (US) or 440.684.9600 Fax: 440.646.0484
World Solvents Industry Study with Forecasts to 2007 & 2012 Study #1715 September 2003 $4800 243 Pages The vast majority of near-term capacity expansion plans announced by multinational solvent producers are slated for the Asia/Pacific region, particularly in China Oxygenated and green solvents to drive gains through 2007 World demand for environmentally friendly solvents (excluding hydrocarbon and chlorinated types) is projected to register gains of almost four percent per year through 2007. Overall demand for solvents, including hydrocarbon and chlorinated types, is forecast to grow at a less impressive 2.3 percent per year through 2007, approaching 20 million metric tons. Although modest, overall growth will represent a considerable improvement over the 1997-2002 period. Demand for hydrocarbon and chlorinated solvents will continue its downward trend as a result of environmental regulations, with oxygenated and green solvents replacing them to a large extent. Asia/Pacific region to grow fastest The Asia/Pacific region holds the best prospects, with demand for solvents in the region projected to expand a brisk 4.8 percent per year through 2007 to almost seven million metric tons. A healthy economic and fixed investment outlook in the region will benefit demand for products that require solvents during their manufacture. Most of the actual production of these solvent-using products will also take place in the Asia/Pacific region due to low-cost labor and the benefits of producing goods near their final Solvents Demand by Region, 2007 (19.6 million metric tons) North America 25% Western Europe 23% Asia/Pacific 35% Rest of World 17% destination. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of near-term capacity expansion plans announced by multinational solvent producers are slated for the Asia/Pacific region, particularly in China. Solvent-based coatings remain dominant in Japan The Japanese market will grow at a much slower pace than the overall Asia/Pacific region's solvent market. Demand for solvents in Japan is projected to rise less than one percent per year through 2007, when it will reach 1.6 million metric tons. Nevertheless, this will mark an improvement over the country's recent performance. Unlike the US or Western Europe, sales of solvent-based paints and coatings still account for the majority (75 percent) of overall paint sales in Japan. In the US and Western Europe, environmental concerns have successfully boosted sales of water-based paints and coatings to grab an almost equal market share as solvent-based forms -- especially in the US. This is one of the key factors that led to declining solvent sales in the US and Western Europe during the 1997-2002 period. Visit www.freedoniagroup.com for complete text and table of contents
Table of Contents Letter From the CEO INTRODUCTION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 MARKET ENVIRONMENT General... 4 World Economic Outlook... 5 Recent Macroeconomic Performance... 5 Macroeconomic Outlook... 7 Capital Investment/Fixed Investment Trends... 9 World Population Overview... 12 Environmental & Regulatory Issues... 13 Air Quality & Ozone Issues... 13 Worker Safety Issues... 15 Solvent Recovery & Recycling. 17 Pricing Trends... 18 Solvent Markets... 19 Paints & Coatings... 20 Cleaning Products... 21 Pharmaceuticals... 21 Printing Inks... 22 PRODUCT & MARKET OVERVIEW General... 23 Demand by Region... 24 Production & International Trade Overview... 27 Product Overview... 28 Hydrocarbons... 31 Alcohols... 33 Ketones... 34 Esters... 36 Glycol Ethers... 37 Chlorinated Solvents... 38 Other Solvents... 40 Market Overview... 41 Dear Colleague: As the world economy emerges from its recent period of doldrums, businesses are planning how to benefit from the new opportunities that an upswing will bring. In making those plans, strategic planners like you require credible industry information on which to base decisions. At Freedonia, it is our mission to provide you with an unbiased, reliable outlook for each industry that we study. We carefully examine available sources, separate the wheat from the chaff, and distill an ocean of data into a concise presentation of where an industry stands today... and where it is going. At Freedonia, it is our mission to provide you with an unbiased, reliable outlook for each industry... Each Freedonia industry study provides you with the information and analysis you need to make important decisions. How large is your target market? Which product segments are growing fastest? Which markets are growing fastest? Our analysts review the relevant secondary sources and talk directly to participants in the industry to find the answers. Our World Solvents study is the culmination of several hundred hours of Freedonia analysts' time. The story here is the use of green solvents to replace the less environmentally friendly hydrocarbon and chlorinated types. Learn how this transition is taking place over varying time frames across a multitude of countries. I invite you to add the Freedonia Group to your team by acquiring our World Solvents study today. Very truly yours, Jeffrey Weiss, CEO NORTH AMERICA General... 43
Table of Contents (cont.) United States... 46 Canada... 51 Mexico... 55 WESTERN EUROPE General... 60 France... 65 Germany... 69 Italy... 74 Spain... 78 United Kingdom... 81 Other Western Europe... 86 ASIA/PACIFIC General... 91 China... 95 India... 100 Japan... 104 South Korea... 109 Other Asia/Pacific... 113 OTHER REGIONS General... 118 Latin America... 122 Brazil... 124 Other Latin America... 128 Eastern Europe... 132 Russia... 135 Other Eastern Europe... 139 Africa/Mideast... 143 Solvents Demand by Type, 2007 (19.6 million metric tons) Alcohols 31% Ketones 12% Chlorinated 6% Celanese AG Frankfurter Strasse 111 61476 Kronberg/Taunus Germany 49-69-305-16000 http://www.celanese.com Esters 12% Celanese Chemicals 1601 West LBJ Freeway Dallas, TX 75234 972-443-4000 http://www.celanesechemicals.us Sales: $4.1 billion (2002) Employment: 10,700 (2002) Hy drocarbons 26% All Others 7% Glycol Esters 7% COMPANY PROFILES INDUSTRY STRUCTURE General... 147 Market Share... 147 Industry Restructuring... 149 Competitive Strategies... 152 Cooperative Agreements... 153 Low Cost Leadership... 159 Product Differentiation... 160 Research & Development... 160 Marketing & Distribution... 161 Company Profiles... 163-243 Key Products: ester, ketone, alcohol and glycol solvents; dimethyl formamide; and crotonaldehyde Celanese is a global industrial chemicals company involved in the processing of raw chemical materials and natural products into value-added chemicals and chemical-based products. The Company operates through five business segments: Acetyl Products, Acetate Products, Chemical Intermediates, Technical Polymers Ticona and Performance Products. The Company is active in the world solvents industry through the Acetyl Products and Chemical Intermediates
Freedonia Study #1715 - WORLD SOLVENTS World Solvents Demand by Region (000 metric tons) Item 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 World GDP (bil 1998 US$) 32060 38180 44670 53850 65700 kg solvent/000 $GDP 0.49 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 World Solvents Demand 15740 16480 17500 19650 22400 North America: 4600 4680 4560 4870 5220 US 4000 4060 3910 4140 4410 OVERVIEW Canada & Mexico 600 620 650 730 810 The Product & Market Western Europe 5030 4810 4660 4450 4320 Overview Section analyzes Asia/Pacific: 3830 4580 5470 6930 8750 Japan 1870 trends 1765 and 1595 considers 1635 the1710 ASIA/PACIFIC China 675 threats 1150 and 1765 opportunities 2595 3655 Other Asia/Pacific 1285 1665 for 2110 solvents 2700 3385 South Korea: Markets Other Regions: 2280 2410 2810 3400 4110 Latin America Paints and coatings accounted for 38 percent of South 730 865 1015 1230 1490 Eastern Europe Korea s solvent use in 2002, with demand having registered 1025 925 1045 1275 1560 solid gains over the 1992-2002 period. As is the case Africa/Mideast in 525 620 750 895 1060 Japan, South Korea s sizable export-oriented motor vehicle industry (sixth largest in the world in 2002 behind the US, Japan, Germany, France and China) accounts for an important share of the country s paints and coatings market. Motor vehicle SAMPLE coatings PAGE account for less than nine percent of overall Text paints sections and coatings support demand each at the global level. However, in South Korea, they account for 16 table s numbers & projections percent of aggregate paints and coatings demand. Overall demand for solvents in South Korea s paints and coatings sector is forecast to increase 2.7 percent per year through 2007 to 160,000 metric tons. Despite a healthy fixed investment environment, gains will slow down due to increased penetration of water-based paints and slowing motor vehicle output growth. Cleaning products are also an important component Brazil for - Solvents Demand by Type solvent end use in South Korea. Healthy economic (000 metric and tons) fixed investment gains during the early to mid-1990s created sizeable cleaning product markets in the Itemindustrial, commercial and household sectors. In addition, wiper fluid 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 demand was positively impacted by the ability of South Gross Domestic Product (bil 98 US$)8871088 1180 1390 1695 Korean consumers to purchase expensive durable goods kg solvents/000$ GDP 0.57 0.55 0.59 0.60 0.58 such as motor vehicles. Although South Korea does not have a sizeable pharmaceutical or agricultural sector, the COUNTRIES/REGIONS Solvents Demand by Type 509 597 693 827 990 These Sections provide Hydrocarbons 160 180 190 200 205 Alcohols 135demand 160 for 200 historical 260years340 Ketones 60 and 75forecast 90growth 105to 130 Esters 77 2007 90 and 1052012130 for 155 Glycol Ethers 25 1430 countries 35 and 45 six 55 Chlorinated 33 37 regions 40 42 43 Other 19 25 33 45 62
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