Michael BUCKI, Policy Officer Unit A2 Climate Finance and Deforestation European Commission Directorate General Climate Action REDD+ in EC Cancun Agreement EC contribution Mitigation Adaptation Development Open issues REDD+ negotiations and strategic priorities REDD+ in EC EU REDD Facility launched to scale up cooperation with Congo, DRC, Guyana, Indonesia and Vietnam, as a start EU experts to take position on finance and technical modalities (Definitions + Monitoring/Reporting/Verification-MRV) Remote sensing: TREES (JRC) and GMES Bilateral Cooperation/Strategic Partnerships ( ) Support to WB Carbon Partnership Facility FCPF: 4M in Readiness Fund, 5M in Carbon Fund Drivers: EC study on the impact of EU consumption on EC may support UNREDD (Multi Donors Trust Fund): Joint initiative by FAO/UNEP/UNDP Voluntary REDD+ Partnership: Transparency and scaling up of actions and support Low visibility of EU projects: Portal ( ) UN level REDD+ in Cancun LULUCF Kyoto Protocol (UE, Japan, Australia, Russia, Canada ) Objective 2015: enhance/preserve a 5GtCO2 sink UNFCCC Credits in CDM Long Term Collaborative Action (All parties) REDD+ Objective 2015 : reduce a 22GtCO2 source by 7GtCO2 Data The Cancun Agreement Goal: Slow, halt, reverse Activities: Deforestation (loss of forest cover) Degradation (loss of forest carbon) Conservation of natural forests Sustainable Management of s Enhancement of forest carbon pool (plantations) 3 Phases All parties need to address the Drivers of Safeguards Biodiversity Development Adaptation Governance Indigenous Peoples rights and livelihoods Ecosystem services REDD+ is MAD Synergies with CBD, WSFS, UNFF, UNREDD, UNPFII Risks & Opportunities for MITIGATION + ADAPTATION + DEVELOPMENT Cancun Safeguards address risks. Future financial mechanisms should direct incentives toward actions which ensure higher poverty alleviation and biodiversity co-benefits, including strengthening ecosystem resilience and services. Governance and green economy: If there is unclear tenure, unfair benefit sharing, poor participation and low involvement of the local private sector and civil society, inc. forest communities and ous Peoples, REDD+ will spark controversy, possibly generate conflicts and ultimately fail as a mitigation mechanism. Biodiversity and livelihoods: Traditional forest use leads to healthy ecosystems which are more resilient and provide vital ecosystem services (food and water security) 3 Phases of REDD+ à Permanence of Emission Reductions Two workstreams
Brainstorm: Key principles for scaling up REDD+ Inclusiveness: Maximize participation of countries to avoid leakages Simple, quick and cheap solutions, covering all REDD+ activities. Participatory approach: Governments and communities must own REDD+ Respect for sovereignty, unambiguous concepts, definitions and metrics. Focused on drivers, actions and results: Must help priming the pump for REDD+ countries to provide regular, complete and meaningful information. Environmental integrity: Conservativeness, credibility, transparency, no bias. Forward compatibility: Anticipate gradual build up and adjustments towards more activities (agriculture, coastal zones), more accurate assessment of performance and possibly more flexible financing mechanisms in phase 3. Consistency over time and space: Nesting of subnational approaches or transboundary projects requires consistent, geo-localised time series. Disclaimer: These slides do not intend to reflect EU positions, nor the positions of the European Commission. It is meant to put forward, and encourage discussions on, new ideas. If interested please send comments or suggestions to michael.bucki@ec.europa.eu emissions $ RED Concept: Reference level Reduced emissions from Enhanced removals of carbon through increasing forest cover $ Time Reference Level Countries Situations We need everyone onboard Different contexts: We need everyone onboard REDD+ and development, The Transition Hypothesis (FTH) Therefore we need all REDD+ activities The Transition Curve Or Population density Or GDP/capita Information gaps: Conservation of carbon in existing stocks Reduced emissions from Reduced emissions from forest degradation Enhanced removals of carbon through increasing forest cover Enhanced removals of carbon through restoration Sustainable management of forests
Where should the data come from Can we improve M SG 6 th M arch 2004 (Source copyright EUM ET SAT ) Expensive, dependant on capacities and infrastructures, slow, inconsistent, unreliable, accurate, relevant for soil & SMoF Cheap, fast, homogeneous, already available, inaccurate, reliable, Clouds, irrelevant for SMoF and soil Area 2000 10 6 ha Country Statistics Area 2000 10 6 ha Remote Sensing Asia Africa Latin America 289 622 892 224 484 767 Total 1803 29% gap! 1475 Definitions Interpretation Methodologies Bioclimatic factors Capacities Gaming Error rate on forest cover: Today: 15% 35 km 350 km 2,400 km Emissions from soil Uncertainty on above ground carbon density: Today: >60% Background image VGT 2000 Mosaic (image source JRC, data source CNES ) Background image MODIS 10th January 2005 (source NASA ) 3.5 km Background image SPOT HRV 10 m March 2005 (image source JRC, data source CNES ) January 2005 1 month before logging
March 2005 1 month after logging Æ IPCC Guidance for LULUCF might not work for REDD+ Management land use Deforestat January 2007 23 months after logging land use Afforestation/ Reforestation NA Conservation Sust. MoF Deforestation Degradation ECS: Æ Natural LU NF à NF OF à OF NF+OF à OL NF à OF OFà NF OLà OF Natural LU Proposal 1: Transition matrix for all REDD+ activities Conservation Degradation Deforest. Enhancement of Carbon Stocks (Restoration) N.A. Sustainable Managemnt of s Enhancement of Carbon Stocks (Afforestat.) Deforest. N.A. Proposal 2 for REDD+ Phase 2: Simplified Reporting Requirements Historical 2010-2013 levels (Mha) RL(Mha) 2014-2017 Actual area 2017 (Mha) 110 50 5 6 4 100 50 3 5 5 105 44 2 7 8 Gain (Mha) +5-6 +1-2 +3 Support 2017 V /Mha W /Mha X /Mha Y /Mha Z /Mha REL(tC) 2018-2021 Emissions (tc) 2021 Support 2021 Carbon price, PES
Not «Natural» (=Beyond significant human disturbance) Not Not Not Idea 3: Proxy measurement Idea 6: Streamlined MSPA: Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis Monitoring (neighborhood information) Process MRV Process Long Term Financing of REDD+ 1. Data collection by remote sensing (forest/non forest Resolution) 2. Automatic data processing (Core forest/edge Thickness) 3. Data validation by country including participative groundtruthing, recalibrations. 4. Data augmentation by Country (organic soils/peatlands, force majeure, safeguards, ) 5. Review process 6. Data publication (NatCom, biannual reports) Participation threshold At least XX% of REDD+ forests/countries should be covered before any country can move to phase 3. Active Carbon Pool s Atmosphere Oceans Fossil Carbon Pool Oil Gas Coal Environmental Integrity: removals do not fully compensate industrial emissions + Market Integrity: Binding GHG targets are too w eak, there is no demand for compliance credits, forest credits w ould just delay action on industrial emissions and energy efficiency = Conditions are not met for using forest offsets Developing a business case for Private Sector Engagement Link between financing and MRV 1. Addressing the drivers of (land planning and resource efficiency in sectors such as timber, agriculture, (bio)energy or extractive industries, and infrastructures) Vested Interests: Building Confidence in Industrial logging and REDD+: carbon in tropical Participative Monitoring, forests Independent Verification Beyond Carbon 2. Avoided /degradation certificates for philanthropy and corporate social responsibility 3. Improving forest information on governance, tenure and a broad range of Ecosystem Services Consulting, certification, independent verification 4. Developing local value chains Embracing complexity: Meeting the challenges REDD AND FOREST CARBON: of international forest Market-Based Critique and governance Recommendations Emissions over long time periods in brazil: 2006-2010 compared to 2001-2005 Deforestation -30% Emissions +20%!