FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA Ethiopia's Climate- Resilient Green Economy Hashim A. Ahmed Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) hashima@mtdedri.org OECD/GGGI Joint forum, Green Growth Development Paths for a better future. November 22 2012, Paris. 0
Currently, more than 85% of GHG emissions in Ethiopia come from agriculture and forestry Total GHG emissions of ~150 Mt CO 2 e in 2010 2 Industry Buildings Transport 3% 3% Power 3% 3% 51% Agriculture 37% Forestry 1
Emissions occur largely within subsistence agriculture Mt CO 2e per year in 2010 Main emissions factors Current GHG emissions Livestock Current cattle population (over 50 million) and other livestock (~100 million) generate GHG mainly in the form of 65 Methane emissions arising from digestion processes Agriculture Crop s Nitrous oxide emissions arising from excretions Crop cultivation contributes to the concentration of GHG by Requiring use of fertiliser Emitting nitrous oxide from crop residues reintroduced into the ground 13 Forestry emissions are driven by Deforestation for expansion of agricultural land 55 Forestry Forest degradation due to fuelwood consumption Formal and informal logging 2
Under a business as usual growth path, emissions would increase from 150 Mt to 400 Mt (2010 to 2030) Mt CO 2 e per year BAU emissions development Agriculture Forestry Power Transport Industry Buildings 400 150 75 55 5 5 2010 185 90 5 40 5 70 5 10 2030 BAU Main factors include population growth, industrialisation and expansion of agricultural activities 3
The Government of Ethiopia has launched its Climate-Resilient Green Economy initiative (CRGE) with 2 main objectives Development initiatives Green growth path Reach middle income threshold by 2025 and keep growth carbon neutral Abatement/ avoidance initiatives Green economy CRGE Resilient economy Resilience initiatives Resilient economy Build the capacity of the economy to cope with the eadverse ese consequences of climate change 4
High Level Gov t leadership and inter-ministerial approach ensure national commitment and alignment across government Environmental Council Ministerial Steering Committee (chair: Newai Gebre-ab, EDRI) Technical Committee (chair: Dessalegne Mesfin, EPA) Sub-Technical Committees Agriculture Electric power supply Building & green cities Forestry Soil Livestock Transport Industry Health 1 1 Not operative, yet
The Green Economy strategy lays out a path towards middle income status, while keeping emissions constant Emissions per year; Mt CO 2e Agriculture Power Industry 400 Forestry Transport Buildings 90 185 130-64% 150 75 90 40 5 10 20 5 145 55 5 5 5 5 70 10 2010 2030 BAU Agriculture Forestry Transport Industry Green Economy initiatives Buildings Green Economy 2030 Emissions per capita tco 2 e/capita 1.8 3.0 1.1 Additional abatement potential of ~19 Mt CO 2 e from exporting green power to regional markets 6
Concrete initiatives for Ethiopia's key sources of GHG emissions across 4 main pillars have been developed Abatement potential Mt CO 2 e in 2030 Agriculture improve crop/livestock practices Reduce deforestation by agricultural Improve animal value intensification and irrigation Use lower-emitting techniques chain Shift animal mix Mechanisation 90 Forestry protect and grow forests as carbon stocks 130 Reduce demand for fuelwood via efficient stoves Increase sequestration by afforestation/reforestation and forest management Power deploy renewable and clean power generation Build renewable power generation capacity and switch off fossil fuel power Export renewable e e power to substitute tute fossil fuel power abroad 19 Industry, transport and buildings use advanced technologies Improve industry energy efficiency Expand electric rail Improve production processes Tighten cars fuel efficiency Substitute fossil fuel with biofuels Improve waste management 35 7
Half of abatement initiatives can be implemented at a positive return and more than 85% cost less than USD 10 per t CO 2 e Ethiopia's abatement opportunities cost curve Agriculture Power Industry Abatement cost USD per t CO 2 e 120 40 30 20 Efficient stoves Power exports 2 Loweremitting techniques Forestry Transport 86% of abatement potential below USD 10 per t CO 2 e 10 10 0-10 -20-30 -80 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 Agricultural intensification Afforestation/ reforestation Shift of animal mix Abatement potential 1 Mt CO 2 e per year -90-230 Electric rail 1 Represents total identified gross potential, some measures are not additive (total net potential is less than sum of all gross potentials) 2 Non-domestic potential (will arise only in importing countries) Note: Assuming full implementation of all levers where cost has been evaluated (excluding buildings/green cities and industry other than cement) 8
Climate Resilience means reducing vulnerability and adopting adaptation measures to protect Ethiopian people and economy Rationale for strengthening Climate Resilience Development initiatives Ethiopia can already feel the impacts of a changing climate today Resilient economy Protect the population from adverse effects of global warming (especially in rural areas) Abatement/ avoidance initiativesiti Resilience initiatives Safeguard economic development and aim to reach middle income status against climate change 9
Launched the climate resilience strategy in April this year Sectors impacted by climate change hazards Sector Top priority >6 regions perceive as relevant 3-6 regions perceive as relevant <2 regions perceive as relevant Transportation Agriculture Health Water/ energy Buildings Industry Flooding Droughts Diseases 10
The building blocks for climate resilience Current impacts Looking out to 2025 Future impacts (out to 2050) 11
Current Impacts to agriculture 12
Future impacts Temperature ANNUAL AVERAGES FOR ETHIOPIA
Future impacts on precipitation 14
Structure of final report Ethiopia s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Climate Resilience strategy: Agriculture, Forestry and Land-Use FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA Aimed to be launched in April 2013 Chapter structure: 1. Introduction 2. Impacts and vulnerability 3. Response measures 4. Prioritization and synthesis
The basic structure of the permanent institutional set-up for the Climate-Resilient Green Economy has been defined Reg. EPAs Environmental Council (EC) Ministerial Steering Committee (MSC) EPA Technical Committee EU EU EU MoFED Environmental units 1 1 Embedded in and reporting to line-institutions Source: CRGE EU Responsibilities Approve environmental standards and directives, recommends laws Establish MSC, appoint its chair Subsidiary to EC Oversee CRGE initiative Approve project and funding Monitor implement./expenditure EPA: Provide technical supervision and expertise, evaluate proposals and monitor implementation MoFED: Secure and channel financial support Review, prioritize and recommend Projects/programmes Funding Coordinate CRGE functions of EUs Coordinate regional implementation Develop sectoral implementation plan for initiatives Develop funding proposals Coordinate and drive implementation Composition Chair: H.E. Prime Minister Leading officials (government, private sector and civil society) Chair: appointed by EC Leading officials/experts from involved institutions Leading professionals and expert teams Chairs of environmental units (EUs) Experts from EPA and MoFED Experts from regional EPAs Sectoral experts from each involved institution (e.g. ministries)
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