Crop responses to temperature t and precipitation at high latitudes Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio MTT Agrifood Research Finland International Symposium on Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture
Full heading and co-authors Crop responses to temperature and precipitation according to long-term multi-location location trials at high latitudes with reference to climate change Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio, Lauri Jauhiainen and Kaija Hakala, MTT Agrifood Research Finland
North Canada Alaska Greenland North Pole Siberia 70 N 60 N Important producer at 60 N Climate warming projected to proceed fast Urgent need for adaptation strategies and measures Jaana Nissi/MTT Source: Peltonen-Sainio P, Rajala A, Känkänen H & Hakala K 2009. Improving Farming Systems in Northern European Conditions.
Impacts on Nordic crop production? o Balancing between opportunities and challenges
Opportunities and challenges Not only thermal but also physiologically effective part of the growing season will prolong Yield potential and biomass production will be markedly enhanced
Challenge Achieved precipitation compared required (%) Lack of precipitation at early growth stages Means often at the most critical phase of yield determination 30 years data from Finnish Meteorological Institute
Main yield determination ti phase Window 215-465 accumulated temperature sum from sowings (+5 C as base temperature)? Peltonen-Sainio P. & Rajala A. 2008. Viljojen kasvun ABC.
Challenge Precipitation since early August till harvest (mm) Abundant precipitation at the end of the growing season Andinfuture - though hard to project - distribution of precipitation likely becomes less even Less at early growth stages More towards the end of the season Heavy showers 30 years data from Finnish Meteorological Institute
Challenge Precipitation (mm) per potential biomass (tons) Crop 1985 2025 2055 2085 Spring barley 30 23 20 18 Spring oat 23 22 20 19 Spring wheat 31 26 21 18 Spring turnip rape 84 37 35 30 Spring oilseed rape 91 42 33 26 Consensus of 19 climatic models and CNRM and ECHAM5-models, A2-scenario MTT Official Variety Trials Finnish Meteorological Institute Source: Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Hakala K & Ruosteenoja K, 2009. Growth duration and phasing, distribution of precipitation and yield capacity of spring cereals and rapeseed in changing climate at high latitudes.
Opportunities or challenges? Not only thermal but also physiologically effective part of the growing season will prolong Yield potential and biomass production will be markedly enhanced Drought problems will likely become more severe
Opportunities or challenges? Success of present cultivars? Crop and trait 1985 2025 Change P-value Consensus of 19 climatic Spring barley: Yield (kg ha -1 ) 4475 4222-254 0.05 Grains m -2 10 770 9780-990 <0.0101 Single grain weight (mg) 42.5 43.6 1.1 <0.01 Spring oat: Yield (kg ha -1 ) 4838 4589-249 0.03 Grains m -2 14 100 13560-540 0.14 Single grain weight (mg) 34.5 34.0-0.5 0.10 Dry pea: Yield (kg ha -1 ) 3150 3651 501 0.06 Seeds m -2 1480 1570 90 044 0.44 Single seed weight (mg) 228 248 20 <0.01 No effect on spring and winter wheat, winter rye, spring rapeseed models, A2-scenario MTT Official variety trials Finnish Meteorological Institute No CO 2 effect
Opportunities or challenges? Success of present cultivars? Growth duration (d) 1985 2025 Change P-value Spring barley 95.6 86.3-9.4 <0.001 Spring oat 103 90.1-12.9 <0.001 Spring wheat 109.00 96.1-12.9 <0.001001 Winter wheat 350.1 337.4-12.7 <0.001 Winter rye 354.1 341.2-12.8 <0.001 Spring turnip rape 105.9 93.0-13.9 <0.001001 Spring oilseed rape 124.8 109.1-15.8 <0.001 Dry pea 101.9 94.1-7.8 <0.01 Consensus of 19 climatic models, A2-scenario MTT Official variety trials Finnish Meteorological Institute
Opportunities or challenges? Success of present cultivars? Pre-head/Post-head (d/d) 1985 2025 Change P-value Spring barley 1.23 1.41 0.18 0.03 Spring oat 1.24 1.39 0.15 0.02 Spring wheat 107 1.07 116 1.16 009 0.09 005 0.05 Winter wheat 5.81 6.23 0.42 0.10 Winter rye 4.00 3.89-0.12 0.68 Consensus of 19 climatic models, A2-scenario MTT Official variety trials Finnish Meteorological Institute Duration of flowering (d) 1985 2025 Change P-value Spring turnip rape 26.5 21.5-5.1 <0.001 Spring oilseed rape 25.4 24.5-0.9 0.61 Pea 21.6 16.11-5.4 <0.0101
Opportunities or challenges? Success of present cultivars? Crop and trait 1985 2025 Change P-value Hectolitre weight (kg) Spring barley 64.8 66.3 1.5 <0.01 Spring wheat 75.2 78.0 2.9 <0.001 Winter wheat 77.6 78.8 1.2 0.05 Winter rye 69.8 71.6 1.8 <0.001 Consensus of 19 climatic models, A2-scenario MTT Official variety trials Finnish Meteorological Institute Protein content (%) Spring oat 13.11 13.8 0.7 <0.0101 Falling number (s) Spring wheat 199 254 54 <0.001 Winter wheat 257 306 49 <001 <0.01 Winter rye 114 156 42 <0.001 Spring turnip rape Oil content (%) 45.5 44.5-1.0 0.04 Seed chlorophyll (mg kg -1 )* 9.1 3.3-5.8 <0.001 Spring oilseed rape Oil yield (kg ha -1 ) 848 743-105 0.02 * Log (seed chlorophyll content)
Spring cereals Crop Precipitation (mm) Daily mean temperature ( C) Length of growing season 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Spring barley: Mean 46.9 36.8 48.7 51.4 12.3 15.6 16.6 15.9 30.5 20.7 19.0 21.3 Response -3 56-13 -52-15 -130-76 77 20 80 55-46 Significance <0.01 <0.001 <0.001 <0.01 <0.01 0.03 <0.001 <0.01 <0.001 Spring oat: Mean 49.3 41.8 52.4 61.0 12.4 15.8 16.6 15.1 32.3 21.8 20.2 25.3 Response 45 52 24-56 -93-158 -140 14 46 85 82-16 Significance <0.01 <0.01 <0.001 <0.01 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.01 Spring wheat: Mean 48.8 41.8 55.2 63.9 12.5 16.0 16.8 15.4 34.0 22.8 21.1 25.4 Response 75 59-9 -17-75 -69-42 -34 43 59 36 6 Significance <0.001 <0.01 0.03 0.04 <0.001 <0.001 Growth period divided into four phases with equal CDD Heading around shift from phase 2 to phase 3, ± 2d days Yield response in each period to +10 mm increase in precipitation, p 1 C elevation in daily mean temperature and one day prolongation in length of each phase
Winter cereals Crop Precipitation (mm) Daily mean temperature ( C) Length of growing season 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Winter wheat: Mean 52.0 38.33 43.7 49.99 10.3 15.11 16.7 16.9 43.6 23.1 20.00 20.3 Response 78 31-92 -91-177 -186-69 91-19 41 23-67 Significance 0.02 <0.01 <0.01 0.03 <0.01 0.08 0.09 <0.01 Winter rye: Mean 52.5 40.2 47.3 53.3 10.4 15.1 16.6 16.3 42.1 22.9 20.0 21.4 Response 3-71 -43-66 -111-60 -53 52 11 3 10-46 Significance <0.01 0.04 <0.001 0.02 <0.01 Growth period divided into four phases with equal CDD Heading around shift from phase 2 to phase 3, ± 2d days Yield response in each period to +10 mm increase in precipitation, p 1 C elevation in daily mean temperature and one day prolongation in length of each phase
Rapeseed and pea Crop Precipitation (mm) Daily mean temperature ( C) Length of growing season 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Spring turnip rape Mean 52.8 45.2 57.5 71.6 12.7 15.9 16.8 14.7 33.1 23.0 21.2 28.0 Response -7-10 -15-18 -30-43 -54 0 21 29 51 3 Significance 0.04 0.01 <0.001 <0.01 <0.01 Spring oilseed rape Mean 53.9 50.6 56.3 77.5 12.9 16.6 17.5 14.3 36.5 24.8 23.1 31.9 Response 13 33 10 7-10 -140-117 -120 8 66 68 50 Significance <0.001 <0.01 <0.001 <0.001 <0.01 <0.001 Dry pea Mean 46.9 42.6 49.9 53.4 12.6 15.7 16.8 16.4 32.2 22.4 20.3 22.1 Response -2 3 0-62 -91-127 -71-18 47 88 65 10 Significance 0.02 0.04 <0.01 <0.001 0.03 Growth period divided into four phases with equal CDD Yield response in each period to +10 mm increase in precipitation, 1 C elevation in daily mean temperature and one day prolongation in length of each phase
Opportunities or challenges? Not only thermal but also physiologically effective part of the growing season will prolong Yield potential and biomass production will be markedly enhanced Drought problems will likely become more severe Cultivars need to be changed already till 2025 To truly benefit from prolonged growing season Especially so regarding grain and seed crops with terminal growth
Opportunities - Challenges Not only thermal but also physiologically effective part of the growing g season will prolong Yield potential and biomass production will be markedly enhanced Drought problems will likely become more severe Cultivars need to be changed already till 2025 Mild winters only after having several decades of increasingly challenging overwintering conditions Extreme events become more common Environmental risks may increase Risks related to pests and diseases will surely increase
Conclusions Global warming has accelerated in recent decades This has also been experienced in Finland Conditions during many of the growing seasons have reflected the future scenarios according to temperature and precipitation conditions, though neglecting elevated CO2 effects. Effects of elevated temperatures were negative for formation of yield potential, but often also for realisation of yield potential. They typically hastened development and growth This likely coincided with reduced water availability. It is essential that breeding programmes produce tailored cultivars adapted to a lengthened growing season and elevated temperatures.
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