On the whole, the growing season has begun and is off to a normal start in the agricultural and agropastoral areas of the country. With current forecasts calling for average to aboveaverage cumulative rainfall, the 2011/12 harvest should be average to good. Figure 1. Current estimated food security outcomes, July 2011 There are reports of extremely large lags in the start of season in Ouallam, Téra, and Tillabery departments, which were not targeted for priority action during last year s crisis and are feeling the effects of poor pasture production in 2010/11 and high acute malnutrition rates (Figure 1). Food insecurity levels are rising, driven by a growing demand for food consumption and the loss of remittance income; a result of the early return of massive numbers of migrants from Libya and Côte d Ivoire to areas dependent on this source of income. For more information on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table, please see: www.fews.net/foodinsecurityscale Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events Most likely food security scenario for July through December 2011 Nationwide situation as of the beginning of July The meetings of experts organized by the national early warning system (SAP) in May/June of this year reviewed the humanitarian programs conducted during the post harvest period, examined the final performance figures for the agropastoral season, assessed the vulnerability of different populations, and ascertained the status of repatriates from Libya and Côte d Ivoire. A re evaluation of applicable indicators puts the size of the food insecure population at 2,287,398. The findings by these analyses show a clear improvement over last year ( 63 percent) and compared with the five year average ( 38 percent). Residents of Tahoua, Guidam Roumdji, Bouza, Magaria, Loga, Ouallam, Tillabery, Téra, Tchintabaraden, Tchirozérine, Gouré, Dakoro, Mayahi, Keita, Abalak, Illéla, and Tessaoua departments are most vulnerable to food insecurity. FEWS NET Niger Niamey Tel: 00 227 20 31 71 33 hyacouba@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC 20006 info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. www.fews.net/niger
The loss of income from migrant remittances and the growing consumer demand, driven by the return of migrants and transhumant pastoralists, translated into sharp cuts in grain intake by poor agropastoral and pastoral households in July of this year. In fact, according to the findings by a FEWS NET study of conditions in Loga, Tahoua, Tanout, and Gouré departments, migration is an important part of household livelihoods in these areas. On average, 67 to 96 percent of the households surveyed in all wealth groups (poor, middle income, and better off) engage in migration. Financial migration income is extremely important, particularly during food crises like that of 2010. Migration income has fallen off by anywhere from 51 to 75 percent with the current sociopolitical crises in major receiving countries for migrants from Niger (Libya, Côte d Ivoire, and Nigeria). The especially large if not total losses of remittance income from Libya are mainly affecting middle income and better off households in Gouré and Tanout. Losses of migrant remittances from Côte d Ivoire, though considerable, are generally not as large. Nutritional conditions are more or less average to good for this time of year. In Tillabery, however, the global acute malnutrition rate for the month of June was considerably above normal seasonal rates before last year s crisis and the severe acute malnutrition rate was well above the figure for June of last year (Tables 1 and 2). Table 1. Global acute malnutrition rates based on SMART surveys (weight/height <-2 SD and/or edema, WHO standard) Region Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 95% CI Nov-10 95% CI Jun-11 95% CI Agadez (urban) 18.4 9.1 11.7 11.7 8.7-15.5 17.4 13.6-21.9 6.7 3.6-12.1 Diffa 20.5 13.8 17.4 17.0 13.3-22.5 12.5 10.1-15.4 13.9 11.4-16.8 Dosso 9.5 9.6 12.3 12.3 9.6-15.5 12.1 9.4-15.4 12.7 10.7-14.9 Maradi 14.5 11.7 13.1 13.1 10.7-15.9 15.3 12.9-18.1 12.2 10.3-14.5 Tahoua 7.9 9.4 10.9 10.9 8.6-13.8 16.1 13.8-18.7 12.0 9.9-14.5 Tillabery 10.2 10.3 8.6 8.6 6.6-11.1 16.1 13.6-19.0 14.8 11.9-18.2 Zinder 15.4 17.4 15.4 15.4 12.8-18.4 17.8 13.3-23.4 11.1 9.2-13.3 Niamey 9.8 7.9 10.1 10.1 8.0-12.6 9.8 7.3-13.1 11.0 8.9-13.6 Niger 12.3 11.6 12.3 12.3 11.2-13.4 15.3 14.0-16.6 12.3 11.4-13.3 Source: National Statistics Bureau (INS) Table 2. Severe acute malnutrition rates based on SMART surveys (weight/height <-3 SD and/or edema, WHO standard) Region Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 95% CI Nov-10 95% CI Jun-11 95% CI Agadez (urban) 3.9 2.1 2.5 2.5 1.4-4.2 1.7 0.8-3.3 1.2 0.4-3.3 Diffa 3.6 2.2 3.4 3.4 2.0-5.9 2.7 1.8-4.1 1.8 1.0-3.5 Dosso 1.5 0.6 2.5 2.5 1.7-3.8 1.9 1.2-3.0 3.1 2.2-4.2 Maradi 4 3.6 1.8 1.8 1.3-2.5 4.2 3.2-5.3 1.6 1.1-2.3 Tahoua 1.5 2.2 1.6 1.6 0.9-2.6 2.7 1.8-4.0 1.8 1.2-2.7 Tillabery 1.3 2.9 0.7 0.7 0.3-1.6 2.9 1.7-5.1 2.5 1.7-3.6 Zinder 3.2 3.9 3.6 3.6 2.5-5.1 3.5 2.1-5.6 1.6 1.0-2.4 Niamey 1.9 2 1.6 1.6 0.9-3.0 1.4 0.6-3.1 1.5 0.9-2.7 Niger 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.1 1.7-2.5 3.0 2.5-3.6 1.9 1.7-2.3 Source: INS Based on this data and information from therapeutic feeding centers for malnourished children and with the expected seasonal deterioration in food security conditions (normally between June or July and the height of the lean season in August/September), FEWS NET is putting farming, agropastoral, and pastoral areas of Tillabery, Téra, and Ouallam departments in IPC Phase 3 (crisis). The following underlying factors are driving needs for emergency assistance: The failure to target these areas for priority action during last year s crisis despite the weaknesses of household coping strategies in the face of the magnitude of the crisis and the limited coping ability of area households in the aftermath of the 2010 crisis; The unusually high and protracted prevalence of malaria with last year s excessive rainfall activity extending into October and the correlation between malaria and acute malnutrition in Niger; The pasture deficits in the northern reaches of this area in 2010/11; The delay in harvests until November/December instead of beginning in October due to the prolongation of last year s rainy season. 2
The study of monitoring indicators for the growing season in farming and pastoral areas showed a definitely normal startof season in farming areas of the country. As of July 10 th of this year, 10,134 farming villages had planted crops, which is equivalent to a 91 percent completion rate. The Dosso, Maradi, and Tahoua regions have a 100 percent completion rate. A review of market conditions shows a remarkable improvement in supplies from surplus producing farmers and traders with the definitive start and normal progress of the growing season. The combination of these favorable conditions and the completion of local grain procurements by the government helped stabilize grain prices, which were still close to the fiveyear average in June. Basic assumptions for the period from July through December 2011 The seasonal rainfall outlook predicted normal to above normal cumulative rainfall for the current growing season in Niger. The conclusion, representing the technical consensus, based on start of season conditions, forecasts, the ONI (Oceanic Niño Index), and estimated historical rainfall distribution data is that this year s rainfall totals will be comparable to or slightly below figures for 2008 when rainfall totals as of September 30 th were generally above to well above the 1971 2000 historical average. Rainfall amounts and soil water reserves during the 2008 growing season helped promote normal crop growth and development. A larger than average area will be planted in crops this year and the growing season should go normally. Crop yields in the comparison year (2008) were as high as 511 kg/ha for millet and 429 kg/ha for sorghum, compared with average yields of 350 kg/ha and 292 kg/ha, respectively, and there were no major plant health problems. The normal progress of the growing season will also create demand for labor and local employment opportunities in July August. With the uniform start of season conditions in all farming areas, there should be a strong demand for labor, keeping daily wage rates definitely at or above the average of 1,500 CFAF/day for the entire period. There will be demand pressure on domestic markets beginning as of July, peaking in August. Prices will stabilize at levels close to the seasonal average with the normal progress of the growing season prompting traders to unload their inventories in July/August and creating good market supplies, bolstered by government programs and community assistance networks. There will be an improvement in food availability and, consequently, in prices and household purchasing power by September with the gathering of wild plant foods, followed by further improvements in October, November, and December with upcoming harvests. There will be more or less average levels of scattered flooding involving 50 to 100 hectares of market garden crops, rainfed rice crops, and flood irrigated crops grown along the banks of streams, in oasis areas, and on the banks of the Niger River. While it should not destroy any crops, it will have adverse health effects. Starting in August, there will be a prevalence of seasonal diseases, particularly malaria, along with some cases of cholera, driven by the expected above average rainfall activity. However, health interventions focused on the prevention and treatment of malnutrition could keep health conditions in line with normal seasonal trends. There will be smaller supplies of livestock (as transhumant herds head north) and a rise in demand and prices in July August September, particularly on markets in farming and agropastoral areas. Prices for small animals will peak in October and November, driven by a strong October demand in anticipation of the celebration of Tabaski in early November. Subsidized sales of 30,000 MT of foodstuffs and targeted distributions of 21,000 MT of free food aid will continue through the end of August of this year, providing 200 kg of food per person to a total of 105,000 recipients. The month long celebration of Ramadan, which falls in August this year, is normally a time of community solidarity with the poor marked by gifts of grain and other staple commodities, which help considerably improve food access for poor households. It is also a time of extremely labor intensive farm work and the peak work period for already over worked women. There will be a seasonal rise in nationwide malnutrition rates, peaking between August and October. As usual, the acute malnutrition rate will remain above the WHO critical threshold, but should not be significantly above basic malnutrition rates, except in agropastoral and pastoral areas of Tillabery, Téra, and Ouallam departments where emergency assistance needs are driven by the following underlying factors: 3
NIGER Food Security Outlook The failure to target these areas for priority action during last year s crisis despite the weaknesses of household coping strategies in the face of the magnitude of the crisis and the limited coping ability of area households in the aftermath of the 2010 crisis; July through December 2011 Figure 2. Most likely food security outcomes for July through September 2011 The unusually high and protracted prevalence of malaria with last year s excessive rainfall activity extending into and beyond the end of October; The pasture deficits in the northern reaches of this area in 2010/11; The delay in last year s harvests until November/December instead of beginning in October due to the prolongation of the rainy season. The gradual improvement in conditions as of the end of July or the beginning of August September could put households in IPC Phase 1 (no acute food insecurity), except in agropastoral and pastoral areas of Ouallam, Tillabery, and Téra departments grappling with the problems outlined above and high price levels attributable to the poor start of this year s growing season and the deterioration in security conditions and resulting market disruptions (Figure 2). In general, the availability of edible leaves and wild fruits in September and the maturation and promising harvests of rainfed grain crops in October, November, and December should eliminate acute food insecurity (Figure 3). Figure 3. Most likely food security outcomes for October through December 2011 Pattern of food security outcomes in agropastoral areas of the Tahoua, Maradi, and Zinder regions These three regions are all major crop producing areas and, together, form Niger s grain basket. They are the source of most domestic grain trade and any shortfall in crop production in these areas will affect all other parts of the country. Current household food security conditions are prompting farmers and traders to unload their grain inventories, which is dramatically improving market supplies. In general, prices are lower than at the same time last year and are even under the five year average. An assessment of the nutritional situation puts global acute malnutrition rates in line with seasonal averages. In general, the good water conditions in these areas helped encourage wide spread planting. Early planted grain and pulse crops are in full growth. On the whole, all crops appear to be doing well. The growing season is making slow progress in pastoral areas, but the level of new vegetative growth still promises an improvement in pasture availability in the coming weeks, based on the seasonal outlook. The start of the growing season and the swollen size of local households with the massive influx of over 181,364 migrants from Libya, Côte d Ivoire, and Nigeria into these areas since February of this year (out of a nationwide total of 210,000) and normal return migration by seasonal migrant workers in May have increased grain needs for the three month long lean season by approximately 10,500 metric tons. With the crisis in Libya, there is virtually no migration income, which is hitting middle income and better off households especially hard, whose members account for most migration to Libya. Though they are not currently contending with a food or livelihood deficit, without changes in their patterns of migration, these households could face livelihood deficits in the next six to eight months if the conflict in Libya continues. Poor households, which normally have large grain and cash needs at this time of year, have lost their migration income from Côte d Ivoire and Nigeria. They are living mainly from on farm employment, which is currently generating above 4
average amounts of wage income in the face of the large demand for labor with the start of the growing season in all parts of the country more or less coinciding and the planting of larger than average areas in crops. Thus, members of poor households are engaging in more wage labor than usual (2 to 3 household members per day instead of the average of 1 to 2 household members per day) and bringing in twice the average amount of wages with the high demand for labor. Assuming the good rainfall conditions reported since the start of the growing season continue, the progress of farming activities could equal or fall only slightly short of figures for the 2008 growing season, whose performance produced a grain surplus of over 1,000,000 metric tons according to the grain balance sheet and record harvests of over 1,500,000 MT of cowpeas and 305, 000 MT of groundnuts. Thanks to the good performance of the last growing season, on farm grain reserves, which are normally low through the end of October, should improve by November December. There will be little need for commercial grain imports, which will be limited mainly to rice and corn. However, there will be problems with certain crop predators, which could have locally serious effects as in the case of last year s infestation of grain crops in Magaria department by leaf hoppers. If current forecasts for high levels of rainfall hold true, with the soil already completely saturated, there will be plant asphyxiation problems and wide spread flooding in bottomland areas, affecting crops. With the good harvest outlook, the downward trend in prices beginning in September should solidify as of October. However, farmers may tend to stockpile their grain crops and sell cash crops such as cowpeas and groundnuts. As a result, there may not be a sharp drop in prices at harvest time, and prices could actually rise, even during the harvesting period in October/November, as they did in 2008. Niger River area of Tillabery, Téra, Kollo, Say, Boboye, Gaya, and Niamey Residents of these areas live mainly from rice farming activities, though most households also grow millet or sorghum crops in interdune areas and raise a few head of stock in feedlots. For poor households, which account for an estimated 70 percent of all area households, rice crops (grown in irrigated areas) have proven to be more reliable than rainfed grain crops due to the erratic pattern of rainfall activity. However, heavy rains can heighten the vulnerability of these households by destroying rice fields without protective dikes and market gardening areas. The main sources of household income are sales of rice, market garden produce, and livestock. Area rice production outside irrigation schemes has gradually fallen off by 10 15% due to the silting of the river and the severe flooding problems in rainy years. Harvests of rainfed rice crops were 55 percent below average in Gaya and more than 80 percent below average in Téra, Tillabery, and Say after last year s floods. Dry season crop production has been relatively stable, with yields of 5 6 MT/ha. Current estimates put the total area covered by irrigation schemes at 7,500 hectares and average annual production at 41,250 metric tons. Mirroring streamflow conditions in 2008, the level of the Niger River continued to fall up until the beginning of June. Then, with the pick up in rainfall activity, the river began rising as of the second dekad of June. Water levels were visibly higher by the end of June/beginning of July, with a higher volume of flow. This year s flow rates are expected to be unusually high, as was the case in 2008 when the flow of the Niger River reached 1,529 cubic meters per second in September, or a total of 3.65 billion cubic meters, 17 percent above the average for the last 18 years, or 3.13 billion cubic meters. The maximum recorded flow was 1,529 cubic meters per second, below the figure for 1998 (1,837 cubic meters per second), which caused the river to overflow its banks at Niamey. With forecasts for above average cumulative rainfall and flow rates comparable to 2008 figures for the same time of year just as the river began to rise, record high water levels are expected in October, November, and December. This could result in the flooding of all areas along the banks of the Niger River during this period, with rainfed rice crops, horticultural crops, and harvests of market garden crops suffering the most damage. Agropastoral and pastoral areas of Ouallam, Tillabery, and Téra departments There is a food availability gap in agropastoral areas as the result of a crop production shortfall compared with consumption needs. Local market supplies have been tight for the last two years due to the poor condition of area roads and civil security problems. Grain prices are average and the main source of income is wage labor in southern farming areas and neighboring departments. Migration to Niamey for the sale of fuelwood accounts for a large percentage of the income of poor households, but grain access is extremely problematic, particularly for poor households without able bodied workers. 5
Last season s pasture deficit in pastoral areas caused pastoralists to migrate to southern farming areas earlier than usual, where there are still large concentrations of animals with the late start of the pastoral season. The progress of the current growing season is already marred by planting delays. As of July 10 th of this year, a total of 319 farming villages had still not planted crops or had lost their early planted crops, including 204 villages in Ouallam department, 92 villages in Téra department, and 23 villages in Tillabery. The start of the growing season in these villages is lagging behind schedule compared with the normal planting period in the Tillabery region, which runs from June 20 th to July 10 th. This could mean mediocre harvests, exposing local populations to a decline in food availability. Local crop production shortfalls and civil security problems could disrupt markets, particularly in remote villages, which will face food shortages and extremely high prices compared with the nationwide average and the norm. Civil security threats could interfere with food aid programs, creating large food gaps between July and the end of September, driving global acute malnutrition rates above the nationwide rate. There are good prospects for labor migration in October, at harvest time, and to irrigated rice growing areas as of November/December, which should boost income and cash remittances from internal migration. This is also a very good time of year for on farm employment against payment in kind. Table 3. Less likely events which could change the above scenarios in the next six months Area Event Effects on food security conditions Poor rainfall conditions Limited flow of trade from surplus to deficit areas, particularly between in major crop producing June and August, with sharper than expected rises in prices. areas of Niger or Nigeria Sharp rise in the value of the Nigerian naira Growing Nigerian demand for grain from Niger; above average prices on domestic markets. Nationwide Niger River area Agropastoral areas of Tahoua, Maradi, and Zinder Similar flooding levels to last year (significantly higher than projected in the most likely scenario) Desert locust infestation Implementation of the assistance program for food insecure populations, including migrants Normal high water levels Less food aid than expected Resolution of the sociopolitical crisis in Libya Large scale flooding Flooding problems will contribute to higher incidence rates of malaria and cholera, seriously affecting the nutritional situation of children in bottomland areas along the banks of the Komadougou and Niger Rivers and in the fossil valleys known as the Dallols. The flooding could cause some damage to crops, but should not have any major effect on the overall performance of the growing season. This will reduce agricultural output in agropastoral areas. Grain prices will not come down as they normally do. Less availability of straw, which is an important source of income for the poor. Improvement in food access for foreign migrants, native migrants and their families, and the local population of receiving areas; less competition for jobs. Normal water levels on the river and normal level of the water table; good rice harvest; good fruit and vegetable harvest and fish catches. Massive supply of wage labor and mass sales of fuelwood and straw by poor households; sharp cutback in areas planted in crops and production shortfalls. Earlier than expected return of migrants to receiving countries, possibly reducing the size of the area planted in crops; resumption of migrant remittances; improvement in the income of households normally receiving cash remittances. Approximately 30% below average harvests. 6