Politique et sécurité énergétique dans le contexte des nouvelles énergies Didier Houssin Director, Energy Markets and Security International Energy Agency Colloque L Energie : enjeux socio-économiques et défis technologiques Paris, 6 et 7 juin 2011 OECD/IEA 2011
Contents Recent trends in renewable energy Renewables in IEA world energy scenarios Emerging policy issues Grid integration of variable renewable power R&D and IEA Energy Technology Roadmaps
Renewable energy is growing at its fastest rate ever Clean Energy Ministerial countries wind power capacity Wind has been growing at 25% average annual growth over a decade
and moving East Top 10 wind cumulative capacity and markets 2010 Source: GWEC 2011
Renewable electricity in OECD 1.15 OECD power generation, 2007=1.00 1.1 1.05 1 0.95 0.9 Total Thermal Conventional generation is 300 Twh below 2007 0.85 Renewable 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 OECD gas demand is 3% over pre-financial crisis levels but largely due to temperature effects
Emerging economies dominate the growth in demand for all fuels Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2008-2035 Coal Oil Gas OECD China Rest of world Nuclear Hydro Other renewables - 600-300 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500 Mtoe Demand for all types of energy increases in non-oecd countries, while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD
Renewables enter the mainstream Renewable primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario OECD Pacific Africa 2008 2035 India Brazil China United States European Union 0 100 200 300 400 500 Mtoe The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035
Mtoe Policies can dramatically alter the long-term energy outlook 20 000 World primary energy demand by scenario 18 000 16 000 14 000 Current Policies Scenario New Policies Scenario 450 Scenario 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20302035 In 2035, energy demand is 8% higher than in the Current Policies Scenario and 11% lower in the 450 Scenario than in the New Policies Scenario
Gt The 450 Scenario: How do we get there now? 45 40 35 30 World energy-related CO2 emission savings by country in the 450 Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario Current Policies Scenario 42.6 Gt 20.9 Gt Share of cumulative abatement between 2010-2035 Efficiency 53% Renewables 21% Biofuels 3% Nuclear 9% CCS 15% 25 20 450 Scenario 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 21.7 Gt Renewables are the second most important contributors to CO2 emissions reduction
Growing shares of renewables in all sectors, for all scenarios 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2008 CPS scenario 2035 NPS scenario 2035 450 scenario 2035 Electricity Heat Transport All scenarios point out a large growth of renewables
TWh Renewable electricity is vital in all scenarios 15 000 45% RE share 12 000 9 000 32% RE share 23% RE share 6 000 3 000 450 Scenario New Policies Scenario 0 Current Policies Scenario 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Global electricity from RE increases from 3 800 TWh (2008) to 14 500 TWh (2035) in the 450 Scenario
Billion dollars (2009) But, at global level, government support will continue to grow Annual global support for renewables in the New Policies Scenario 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 Biofuels Renewables-based electricity 0 2007 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Government support remains the key driver rising from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion in 2035 but higher fossil-fuel prices & declining investment costs also spur growth
However, new issues are emerging Unexpected PV growth raises policy cost concerns in several EU countries (Czech Rep., Spain, France, Germany, Italy) Accumulated global PV capacity MW 45 000 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 Rest of the world Czech Republic USA Italy Japan Spain Germany 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: IEA PVPS, BP Statistical Report, BNEF
Principles of good policy design still hold Many OECD countries have entered new phase of RE policy which requires dynamic transformation Inception/ Onset Phase Take-Off/ Mass Deployment Phase Consolidation Phase Address non-economic barriers Predictable and transparent incentives Transitional decreasing over time Tailored to adapt to technology and market maturity Take system integration into account Deployment
Importance of var-re WEO 450 Scenario electricity projections EU 4% 15% 25% 29% 17% 32% 46% 51%
Demand (MW) Emerging challenges: grid integration Variability is not new, but it does get bigger Demand Demand net of wind and solar Source: Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, GE Energy for IEA/OECD NREL (2010) 2011
Flexibility is key There are 4 flexible resources Dispatchable power plants Demand side Response (via smart grid) Energy storage facilities Interconnection with adjacent markets Industrial A biomass-fired power plant residential A pumped hydro facility Scandinavian interconnections
VRE penetration potential Grid integration of var-re Snapshot of present penetration potentials Grid Market
Million USD (2009 prices and PPP) Share of Energy R&D in Total R&D Importance of sustained R&D Annual global public spending on energy RD&D 25000 15% 13% 20000 11% 15000 9% 7% 10000 5% 3% 5000 1% 0 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009-1% Nuclear Energy efficiency Fossil fuels Renewable energy sources Hydrogen and fuel cells Other Share of energy R&D in total R&D
IEA Energy Technology Roadmaps 2009 releases Carbon capture & storage, Electric vehicles, Cement sector, Wind energy 2010 releases Solar PV, Concentrating Solar Power Nuclear power Energy efficient buildings: heating and cooling Smart grids, Vehicle efficiency 2011 releases Biofuels Geothermal (June) Bioenergy for heat & power (Q4) Hydropower (Q4) Clean/high-efficiency coal; Energy efficiency in buildings: design & operation; Hydrogen & fuel cell vehicles www.iea.org/roadmaps
Ex: CSP costs and global output Competition for peak and mid-peak loads Competition for base load
Conclusions and recommendations Renewables have a global positive outlook: Can bring large benefits, specially in climate change mitigation and security of supply Are ready to continue delivering if policy support is maintained Asia, China, in particular, has emerged as the key market for renewables, both from the supply and demand sides However, RE policies face new challenges More dynamic approach to adapt quickly to market changes Sustained support to R&D needed