POWER SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS IN BRAZIL Mario Pereira mario@psr-inc.com Workshop on Power Market Reforms and Global Climate Change Stanford, January 27-28, 2005 1
Outline Brazilian system overview Investment needs Investment options Market rules for new investments The Bioelectricity initiative Conclusions 2
The Brazilian power system Surface area: 8.5 million sq km ( continental USA + 1/2 Alaska) 175 million inhabitants Inst.capacity (2003): 85,000 MW Production: 42,000 ave. MW 55% of South America Peak Demand: 53,500 MW - comparable to UK or Italy VE CO EC PE BO CH PY UR AR BR 3
Current energy mix Thermal + interconnections (15%): combined- and open-cycle natural gas, coal, oil and nuclear Hydro (85%): large plants in cascade, Bocaina 1501 in several basins all hydro plants are dispatched as a "portfolio", with "wetter" basins exporting energy to "drier" ones A. A. Layner 602 Xavantes 604 L.N.Garoez 605 Canoas I 606 Canoas II 607 Capivara 616 617 Rosana 618 Nova Ponte 1508 Miranda 1509 Capim Branco 1510 Itumbiara 1513 Cachoeira Dourada 1514 1515 1512 Serra 1493 1505 Barra Bonita 907 A.Souza Lima 908 Ibitinga 909 Prom. 910 N.Avanhandava 911 C.I.Solteira 914 S.Dias Jupia 919 Porto Primavera 926 Camargos 1207 Itutinga 1208 Funil Grande 1212 Furnas 1221 Masc. Moraes 1222 Estreito Grande 1223 Jaguara 1224 Igarapava 1225 V.Grande Gde. 1226 P.Colombia 1227 Maribondo 1240 A.Vermelha 1241 Caconde 1233 Euclides da Cunha 1236 A.E.Oliveira 1237 Viradouro 1244 Jaborandi 1243 Barretos 1242 Itaipu Binac. 620 Itaipu: Itaipu: 14,000 14,000 MW MW 4
Brazil: transmission system Transmission is an important factor for the integration of hydro power production Country is interconnected by 80,000 km of HV lines Long transmission lines (> 1,000 km) + 40,000 km of HV circuits until 2012 * Eletrobrás, Ten Year Expansion Plan 2003-2012 5
Power sector organization Regulatory agency (ANEEL) Nationwide ISO (ONS) and Wholesale Energy Market (CCEE), both private, under ANEEL supervision Generation 11 gencos, 15% private (by energy produced) total revenues (2003) : US$ 9 billion Transmission 26 transcos, 17 private total revenues (2003) : US$ 1.6 billion Distribution 64 major discos, 80% private (by energy consumed) total revenues (2003): US$ 16 billion 6
Power sector investments Capital intensive Long-term investments Uncertainty on demand growth Yearly investments: US$ 6 billion Distribution 33% Generation 51% Transmission 16% Source: MME. 2004 7
Generation investment needs Until 2008, there is over-capacity (consequence of energy rationing in 2001) Assuming a 4% GDP growth. about 3,500 MW of new capacity must enter the system every year, starting 2009 Because of construction time, investment decisions must be made early in 2005 8
Resources for generation expansion North: North: substantial hydro; hydro; limited limited natural natural gas gas Northeast: hydro hydro exhausted; offshore natural natural gas; gas; LNG LNG imports; power power import import from from North North and and Southeast; biomass (sugarcane); windpower South: South: electricity and and gas gas imports imports from from Argentina; local local coal; coal; binational hydro hydro plants; plants; wind wind Southeast: hydro; hydro; Bolivian gas gas + large large offshore gas gas fields; fields; biomass (sugarcane) (sugarcane) 9
Market rules All consumers must be 100% covered by energy supply contracts Verified ex-post, on an yearly basis Although supply contracts are financial (forward contracts), they must be backed by physical production capacity ( ballast ) The need to sign new contracts to cover additional load is the driver for the entrance of new capacity 10
Contracting existing capacity Discos (70%): regulated auctions carried out every year, for entrance in operation next year (contract renewal) Five- to eight-year PPAs are offered criterion for contracting in auctions is the smallest tariff ($/MWh) discos are responsible for deciding how much energy they want to contract contract costs can be passed through to customers Free consumers (30%): direct negotiation 11
Example of regulated auction Carried out December 7, 2004 Total load: 17 thousand average MWs 9 thousand ave. MWs starting 2005 7 thousand, 2006 1 thousand, 2007 Fifteen generation bidders, totaling 26 thousand average MWs Eight-year contracts About US$ 27 billion in contracts were auctioned 12
Contracting new capacity Discos: regulated auctions carried out every year, for entrance in operation five years later 20-year PPAs are offered this allows auction winners enough time to build plants and to have project finance criterion for contracting in auctions is the smallest tariff ($/MWh) discos are responsible for deciding how much energy they want to contract contract costs can be passed through to customers Free consumers: direct negotiation 13
New Capacity auction rules Discos inform required load Auctioneer prepares a Menu of generation options Hydro projects (concessions prepared by government) Thermal projects + international interconnections (offered by candidate investors) Each project has an associated firm capacity, which serves as ballast Each investor bids an annual remuneration ($) for each desired project Projects are ranked by $/firm capacity and selected by increasing price until total capacity = required load 14
Costs of mainstream supply options Investment Contract (US$/kW) (US$/MWh) Hydro 700 37 Combined-cycle gas 600 41 Coal (local) 1000 47 Nuclear 1000 47 15
The role of renewables PROINFA: incentives for the construction of 3,300 MW of renewables: small hydro, biomass and windpower (1,100 MW each) Compulsory contracting by all consumers Operation will start 2007-2008 Contract prices (US$/MWh): Small hydro: 42 Wind: 73 Biomass: 34 Biomass has the potential for becoming a mainstream expansion option 16
Sugarcane production - million tons Source: Unica, Brazilian Sugar and Ethanol Market 2004, presentation by E.P.Carvalho, NY, March 2004 400 350 300 250 Proalcool Proalcool 263 303 350 200 150 100 91 149 50 0 1975 1980 1990 1995 2003 Ethanolrurun cars Ethanol- Sugar cars Sugar exports exports by by private privatesector 2010 projection: 540 million tons (50% increase) Flex-fuel Flex-fuel cars cars and and ethanol ethanol exports exports 17
Brazil: sugar-cane crop area Source: Unica, Brazilian Sugar and Ethanol Market 2004, presentation by E.P.Carvalho, NY, March 2004 North/Northeast: 20% Current area 5 million ha Center-South: 80% 18
Brazil: potential sugar-cane crop area Potential area 90 million ha Source: Unica, Brazilian Sugar and Ethanol Market 2004, presentation by E.P.Carvalho, NY, March 2004 19
Economic advantages of Bioelectricity Shorter construction period 2 years x 5 years for hydro important due to uncertainty in load growth Natural hedge with sugar and ethanol production greater competitiveness Location close to main load centers reduction in transmission costs Synergy with hydro production pattern Carbon credits 20
Hydro and Biomass Complementary 500 450 400 State of São Paulo monthly rainfall (mm) historic average SOURCE : IAC 350 300 250 Sugarcane harvest: April-November 200 150 100 50 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC - 2003 422 143 160 112 51 26 17 16 38 98 121 185 Historic 262 225 144 49 67 46 22 39 80 105 162 224 21
Locational advantage Sugarcane crop areas Main electricity load load centers Source: Unica, Brazilian Sugar and Ethanol Market 2004, presentation by E.P.Carvalho, NY, March 2004 22
Additional Advantages of Bioelectricity Production in national currency Wider range of investors Job creation 23
The Biolectricity Initiative Joint endeavor of sugarcane producers and energy producers/traders Coordination with natural-based cogeneration initiative (COGEN) 24
Biolectricity objectives/actions Short-term objective: participate with at least 2500 MW in the new capacity action Work with government (Ministry of Energy and regulator) to finalize/detail power sector regulations Define with Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Energy a baseline scenario for carbon credits (Kioto rules) Additional negotiations with World Bank Mid-term: explore additional opportunities Hydrogen from ethanol Biorefineries 25
Conclusions Bioelectricity from sugarcane has the potential to become a mainstream energy option in the near future in Brazil Window of opportunity because of strong growth of sugar/ethanol sector, new power sector regulations and start of Kioto initiative 26