Financial Analyst View Colin Guheen, CFA Cowen and Company
The Quest for Value $$$ ROE >Ke $$$
The Quest for Value Demand Growth Supplier Seafood ROE Buyer Supply Growth
Mass C-Stores Supercenters Club Stores Food at Home Choices Supermarkets Dollar Stores Pork Chicken Drug QSR Ltd Assort t Polished Casual Shrimp Protein Choices White Fish Salmon Tuna Convenient Casual Food Away From Home Choices Coffee House Shellfish Dinner QSR Casual Dining
Global Demand Dev't BRIC-M BIP-N % of World's Population % of World's GDP IMF Real GDP Growth Country US 5% 20% 1.8% EU-27 7% 20% 1.8% Canada 0% 2% 1.8% Japan 2% 5% 2.3% 14% 62% Brazil 3% 3% 3.6% Russia 2% 3% 4.1% India 17% 6% 7.5% China 20% 15% 9.0% Mexico 2% 2% 3.7% 44% 17% Bangladesh 2% 0% 6.1% Indonesia 3% 1% 6.3% Pakistan 2% 1% 3.8% Nigeria 2% 1% 6.6% 11% 3% Source: Cowen, FAO, and IMF 12 Countries = EU 70% 83%
Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability NMI's 2008 Consumer Segmentation Model (% general population U.S. adults...) Source: 2008 LOHAS Consumer Trends Database
Emerge into Mainstream 100% 75% FRINGE MAINSTREAM 50% 25% 0% Innovators Early Adopters Join Early Majority Join Late Majority Join Laggards Join Typical Consumer Adoption Sequence LOHAS/Naturalite Plenty of Demand Growth Headroom Only 6% or $35BN of the $600BN Food Industry. Only 17% of LOHAS/Naturalite total food expenditures. Growth fueled by: Retailer/manufacturer consolidate brands into mainstream distribuoon channels Source: Cowen, and NFI
US Seafood ConsumpEon Seafood inline with LOHAS trends ConsumpOon could DOUBLE per dietary guidelines to eat seafood 2X per week Lbs. Per Protein Capita Chicken 90 Beef 60 Pork 40 Projected Seafood 27 Turkey 18 Current Seafood 16 Source: Cowen, NOAA, and Company Reports
We eat farmed species Lbs. Per Capita 10 Year CAGR 25 Year CAGR 2010 Species YOY 1 Shrimp 4.00 2.3% 2.4% 2 Canned Tuna 2.70 3 Salmon 2.00 2.2% 6.8% 4 Tilapia 1.45 20% 5 Alaska Pollock 1.19 6 Catfish 0.80-3% 1.3% 7 Crab 0.57 8 Cod 0.46 9 Pangasius 0.41 14% 10 Clams 0.34 Total 16.0 1% Source: Cowen, and NMFS
Global Demand Developing World: 9 country proxy 55% of populaoon but 3.5%- plus Real GDP Growth Dev't BRIC-M BIP-N % of World's Population % of World's GDP IMF Real GDP Growth Country US 5% 20% 1.8% EU-27 7% 20% 1.8% Canada 0% 2% 1.8% Japan 2% 5% 2.3% 14% 62% Brazil 3% 3% 3.6% Russia 2% 3% 4.1% India 17% 6% 7.5% China 20% 15% 9.0% Mexico 2% 2% 3.7% 44% 17% Bangladesh 2% 0% 6.1% Indonesia 3% 1% 6.3% Pakistan 2% 1% 3.8% Nigeria 2% 1% 6.6% 11% 3% 12 Countries = EU 70% 83% Source: Cowen, FAO, and IMF
Income Growth changes what people eat Understand how the $3K Per Capita Income Threshold changes what people eat: Increased protein consumpoon (India and BIP- N) Understand how the $10K Per Capita Income Threshold changes what people eat: Improved protein choice (i.e. more global diet)
Income Thresholds 100% 90% - 30 38-17 80% 70% 60% 77 57 684 530 50 495 50% 40% 274 530 30% 20% 10% 0% 85 100 342 77 187 265 114 23 US Brazil Russia India China Mexico BIP-N Over $10,000 $3,000-$10,000 Under $3,000 Source: Cowen and World bank
Per Capita Animal Protein Calories 500 400 300 200 100 - USA EU Japan Canada Brazil Russia India China Mexico Bangladesh Indonesia Pakistan Nigeria Animal Protein (kcal/capita/day) Source: Cowen and FAO
Protein Choice 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% USA EU Japan Canada Brazil Russia India China Mexico Bangladesh Indonesia Pakistan Nigeria Fish (% of calorie/capita) Pork Chicken Beef Goat Source: Cowen and FAO
High Income Asia Bodes Well Japan: 3X the consumpoon vs. US, Canada and Europe Hong Kong over 140lbs per capita China Demand More Seafood vs. Land Based Proteins More Food away from home vs. Food at home BRIC-M BIP-N Source: Cowen, and FAO Seafood Consumption Per Capita- Country LBS (LWE) US 47 EU-27 55 Canada 52 Japan 145 Brazil 14 Russia 45 India 10 China 56 Mexico 23 Bangladesh 26 Indonesia 45 Pakistan 5 Nigeria 17
UrbanizaEon changes where people eat DisOnct Food at Home and Food Away from Home Occasions emerge Organized food retail and foodservice sectors emerge
Large urban populaeons that can sell emerge. 100% 90% 80% 56 28 39 38 70% 60% 118 91 803 754 412 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 78 92 329 205 131 74 208 25 129 243 36 89 US Brazil Russia India China Mexico BIP-N Cities Over 1mm Other Urban Rural Source: Cowen, World Bank, and IMF
Delivery My Food Date Night or Out With Friends Daytime Evening Eat on the Go Home Meal Replacement 3 rd Place Experiences At Convenience Home Away Destination from Home
Daytime Evening QSR Dinner QSR Casual Dining Polished Casual At Convenience Home Away Destination from Home
Daytime Evening Delivery QSR Dinner QSR Convenient Casual Casual Dining Breakfast, Sandwich, and Snack Specialists Polished Casual Coffee/Tea Specialists At Convenience Home Away Destination from Home
Daytime Evening Casual Dining Polished Casual At Convenience Home Away Destination from Home
Replenishment Shop Exploration Shop Functional Experiential On the Go Shop One Stop Shop Price Shop Convenience Destination
Functional Experiential Supermarkets Convenience Destination
Functional Experiential Supermarkets Convenience Destination
Functional Experiential Supermarkets Convenience, Drug and Dollar C-Stores Stores Drug Stores Limited Assortment Stores Natural and Gourmet Stores Supercenters Hypermarkets Super-center, Mass and Club Stores Club Stores Convenience Destination
Tall order for today s seafood suppliers 1940-60s Tyson became beder farmers 1970s and beyond Tyson became beder food marketers Market Year Age Weight FCR 1925 112 2.5 4.7 1935 98 2.9 4.4 1940 85 2.9 4.0 1950 70 3.1 3.0 1960 63 3.4 2.5 1970 56 3.6 2.3 1980 53 3.9 2.1 1990 48 4.4 2.0 1995 47 4.7 2.0 2000 46 5.0 2.0 2009 48 5.6 1.9 Source: Cowen, and Company Reports
Genetic Feed Inputs Logistics Inputs Wild Catch Assets Aquaculture Assets Processing Assets
New Species Feeds Genetic Feed Inputs Wild Catch Assets Logistics Inputs Genetics/ Disease Mitigation Aquaculture Assets Processing Assets Production Technology
New Species 500 Aquaculture Species Tracked by FAO 2009: Only 30 species over $1bn USD 1990: 8 Species over $1bn USD Lots of Species soll in the R&D phase
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