Millennium Development Goals (MDG) What are MDGs? MDG is an approved action plan of all countries and leading organization to reduce for a half of poverty, to stop proliferation of HIV/AIDS and to ensure primary education. MDG s unite the efforts to meet demands of poorest people of the world. 1
8 Goals Eradicate extreme and hunger Improve maternal health Achieving universal primary education, Combat HIV/AIDS Malaria and other diseases Promote gender equality and empower women Ensure environmental sustainability Reduce childe mortality A global partnership for development MDGs and Azerbaijan President Haydar Aliev signed MDG resolution aimed to achieve 8 goals of MDG up to 2015 Poverty reduction and Economic Development State Programme (2003-2005) 2
MDGs and Azerbaijan MDG s annual report within state program for poverty reduction and economic development. President Ilham Aliev adopted State Program on poverty reduction and sustainable development (2008-2015) Azerbaijan Post 2015 National Development Agenda National Report Report of the UN Development Group UN Secretary- General İntergovernmental High Panel UN General Assembly 3
WHY 2015? End of MDG Implementation Period End of SPPRSD(State Program for Poverty Red. And Sust. Dev) End of UNDAF (Framework) (2011-2015) 2012 Global Hunger Index 4
The GHI aggregates three equally weighted indicators: X the proportion of people who are undernourished, X the proportion of children younger than age five who are underweight, and X the mortality rate of children younger than age five. 5
Why Food? 1.47 % of population live in rural areas. 2.39 % of labor force is in agriculture sector 3.More than 50 % of population spend over 60 % of expenditure for food Why we join to consultations? In modern production up to 60 % of added value gain from management decisions 6
Basic information I Establishment: 28 May 1918 I Independence: 18 October 1991 I Official Language: I Political system: I Area: I Population: I Capital: I Autonomous Republic: Azerbaijanian Presidential Republic 86.6 ths. sq. km. 9 million Baku Nakhchivan I Currency: Manat * * (0.79 AZN=1 USD) Population 9.2 million Human Development Index 0.731 Infant mortality rate, deaths per 1,000 live births 38.5 Adambaşına gəlir 3784,3 AZN Poverty rate 6.0 per cent 7
Macroeconomic figures 2012 2012 GDP growth rate 1 % GDP per capita ($) 10,700 Investments ($) 17.3 bln FDI ($) 3.3 bln Inflation 1.1 % Unemployment rate 5,2% Poverty level 6.0% Average monthly salary ($) 505 GDP growth 1 % Income growth rate of population 12.3% Total investments 17.3 bln $ Non-oil investments 12.1 bln $ Strategic currency reserves 29 bln $ Macroeconomic figures 34.5 I GDP growth rate (%) I GDP per capita ($) 11.2 10.1 26.4 25 ( % ) 10.8 9.3 5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 1048 888 1579 2471 3841 4874 5631 5603 8
productivity GDP share in the region I GDP share in the South Caucasus (%) 80 69 71 70 66 63 60 60 50 52 52 52 52 50 54 50 40 31 30 29 28 28 29 26 30 22 19 17 20 17 16 19 19 20 20 21 20 18 18 20 16 14 13 10 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Azerbaijan Georgia Armenia Regional Prospect 9
Share in Economy GDP distribution, 2010: Total industrial production, 2010: Agriculture Construction Trade Transport Taxes Industry Communication Other sectors 11.9% 5.3% 7.5% 1.9% 7.7% 6% Production of oil products Production of building materials Others 4% 11% 4% 5% Food Processing Chemical Industry Machinery and equip,ments 48% 7.1% 52.6% 28% Agricultural Products ANIMAL HUSBANDRY Dairy Meat Aquaculture Other products Apiculture Cattle Cattle Eggs Sheep and goat Sheep and goat Wool Poultry Fur Pig Leather Cocoons 10
Overview of Agriculture sector 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Agricultural production, mln AZN Inputs for Food Processing Production of main crop products (thousands, tonnes) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Cereals Potatoes Vegetables Fruits and berries 11
Foodstuffs Consumption Kg Consumption of main food products 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Bakery products Potatoes Vegetables Meat products Milk and dairy products Fruit and berries Overview of Food Processing Sector The main segments of the food processing industry in Azerbaijan: I Meat processing I Production of dairy products I Canning of fruits and vegetables I Beverages 12
Dairy Sector - Background I Most households have cattle; I Regular income to farmers; I Essential part of the Azerbaijani diet; I Demand is still growing; I Imports meet 20% of demand; I Dairy sector has the potential to develop from subsistence farming to a market oriented business. Status of the Dairy Sector I Milk production: 1,433,000 ton/year I No. of cows: I Average yield: 1,129,000 head, 1,154 kg/cow/year I 99% of all milk produced by small private farms. I 20% of all milk processed by modern plants. I Processing capacity increased from 200 to 1000 ton/day. 13
Drinking Milk Products Growth of consumption 2005 2010 93% Growth of consumption 2010 7% Growth of consumption 2010 2015 7% (expected) Main sources of import: Russia, Belarus, Latvia, Turkey 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sales AZN (mln) * Source: Euromonitor International Export and Import of Food and Drinks USD thous. 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 Export Import 200000 100000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 * Source: The State Statistical Committee 14
Export opportunities Products: I Fruit and vegetables I Meat and meat products I Dairy products I Canned goods I Natural juices I Mineral water I Exotic fruits I Jams Opportunities for FDI I Production of fresh fruits and vegetables I Pedigree cattle farms I Poultry-farming I Seed farming I Floriculture I Horticulture I Apiculture I Silkworm breeding I Medicinal herbs 15
Advantages of Investing Investments into agribusiness will ultimately lead to: I Food safety & Food security; I Rural economic growth leading to continued reduction in poverty and jobs creation; I Import rationalization; I Education and professional growth; I Reduction in urbanization; I Export enhancements; I Profit. Time to Invest in the Future is TODAY! I Agricultural investments take time to mature, so don t delay. Opportunities are open in all sectors and sub-sectors. I Good export potential Hub to supply for the former USSR / Western & Central Asia I Export potential in the EU, US, CIS and Middle East markets is obvious. 16
Opportunities: Production I Fruit juices, wine and other alcoholic drinks I Meat and dairy products I Plant and animal oils I Honey I Mineral and natural water I Potato processing (potato chips, potato flour etc) I Canned and frozen fruits and vegetables, dried fruit I Bakery and Confectionery I Nuts processing, hazel chocolate oil I Baby food I Olives and olive products I Tomato paste, mayonnaise, ketchup and other sauces Opportunities: Infrastructure I Cold storages I Greenhouses I Grain storehouses I Slaughterhouses I Logistics centres I Agricultural equipment I Packaging and labeling facilities I Agro-industry services I Veterinary and phytosanitary services I R & D 17
Potential Opportunities for Investment Feed industry Farm machinery Barn equipment AI services Dairy Farm Veterinary services Extension services Credits Milking equipment 35 Advantages of investing I Fast growing market within Azerbaijan I Easy access to the growing markets of the neigbouring countries I State support I Wide variety of agricultural products I Growing food processing industry I Existing and potential joint ventures with local producers I Experienced and cost-effective workforce I GSP, GSP+ 18
Argument for Investing in Agriculture İnternational market prices fluctuate Cost of imports increasing Climate change Global Warming Water deficiency For Azerbaijan it is very important because only 1/3 part of arable land irrigated and this part of land gives 80% of yield. Road map of Azerbaijan food security State Program of Socio-Economic Development of the Regions of Azerbaijan (2009-2013) State Program on Poverty Reduction and Sustainable Development in the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2008-2015 The State Program on Reliable Food Supply of population in the Azerbaijan (August, 25 2008) "Azerbaijan 2020: The vision of the Future 19
Azerbaijan 2020 Vision for future 1. GDP 13. 000 $ 2. Export potensial per capita, non oil 1.000 $ 3. Growing rate of GDP(non oil) - more 7% 4. Tools of the insurance in agriculture 5. Creation of store complexes 6. Mother and children health State Programme 2013-2020 Norms of Consumption for minimum busket Children Able-bodied Aged population Average per capita Share of population, % 23.8 66.9 9.3 100.0 Bread and products (in conversion to flour) 98.0 150.0 109.0 133.8 Potato 40.2 46.7 36.5 44.2 Vegetables 101.2 95.7 85.5 96.1 Fruits and berries 76.0 38.0 38.0 47.0 Meat and meat products 25.0 30.0 19.2 27.8 Milk and dairy product (in conversion to milk) 247.5 193.6 223.1 209.2 Fish and fish products 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Egg 169.0 135.0 91.0 139.0 Sugar and confectionery (conversion to 19.5 16.3 14.6 16.9 sugar) Vegetable oils 8.3 11.0 7.9 10.1 Butter 6.0 8.0 5.5 7.3 Tea 3.3 3.6 2.8 3.5 Salt 3.3 3.6 2.8 3.5 20
Level of food supplyment (2012), % 1 Meat and meat products 92% 2 Egg 96% 3 Vegetable oil 70% 4 Butter 50% 5 Milk and dairy products 73% 6 Grains 65% 7 Potato 100% 8 Vegetables 99% İndicators of Nutrition (daily) FAO WHO Azerbaijan 2010, gr Protein 100 gr 75 Oil 75 gr 73 Carbohidrates 425 gr 460 21
Subsidies to the agricultural sector Subsidies by products Non-product subsidies 40 AZN aid to wheat and rice producers for each ha of planted areas 50% government subsidy to farmers for seed purchase 70% government subsidy to wheat producers for the purchase of mineral fertilizers 50% discount for the purchase of cattle pedigree Tax heaven to agrarian producers Soft credits to agrarian producers 50% discount to producers for the purchase of fuel and motor oils 50% discount to producers for the purchase of mineral fertilizers Sale of machinery to producers at privileged leasing terms Privileged price of irrigation water for the agrarian producers State support mechanisms I Institutional Support AZPROMO Azerbaijan Investment Company National Fund for Support of Entrepreneurship Agroleasing JSC I Subsidies 22
Dynamics of Undernourishment 2002-2012 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 2010-12 World 14.4 14.2 13.8 13.5 13.1 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.5 AZ 5.0 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 KZ < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 KG < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 TJ 10.2 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.2 8.6 8.0 7.1 6.4 TK < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 TM 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.2 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 < 5 UZ 12.7 10.9 9.8 9.0 8.5 7.9 7.2 6.7 6.1 FAO, SOFI 2012 Food Security Indicators 2010-2012* Undernourishment Global Hunger Food ProducitonDietary Energy Drinking Water Import Dependency % Index p/c, $ Adequcy, % % population 2007-09 World 12.5 n/a 295 121 88 15.7 Azerbaijan < 5 7.8 230 129 80 37.8 Kazakhstan < 5 >5 433 144 95 3.0 Kyrgyzstan < 5 5.8 281 120 90 25.4 Tajikistan 6.4 15.8 141 100 64 49.5 Turkey < 5 >5 428 155 100 13.8 Turkmenistan < 5 6.9 374 127 n/a 9.1 Uzbeksitan 6.1 6.9 274 115 81 16.1 FAO, SOFI 2012 23
Food Security Management International Standards ISO 22000:2005 1 2 3 ISO/TS 22003:2007 ISO/TS 22004:2005 BIP 2128:2007 4 BIP 2127:2007 5 BIP 2129:2007 6 Codex Alimentarius Commission standards for food control and analyzing. 1 CAC/GL 33-1999 2 CAC/GL 41-1993 3 CAC/GL 47-2003 4 CAC/GL 50-2004 5 CAC/GL 56-2005 6 CAC/GL 60-2006 7 CAC/GL 61-2007 8 CAC/GL 63-2007 24
Codex Alimentarius Commissions regulations and standards for food control 9 CAC/GL 69-2008 10 CAC/MRL 3-2001 11 CAC/RCP 49-2001 12 CAC/RCP 50-2003 13 CAC/RCP 55-2004 14 CAC/RCP 56-2004 15 CAC/RCP 59-2005 16 CAC/RCP 62-2006 Poverty Dynamics 25
Rate of population living below of national poverty level, percent 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 49.0 46.7 44.7 40.2 29.3 20.8 15.8 13.2 10.9 9.1 7.6 6.0 Poverty Level Azerbaijan (2012) 6% Refugees and internaly displaced 18% (1,25 $ per day) 26
Social protection programs poverty reduction Azerbaijan GDP - 0,5% OECD GDP - 2,5% Europe and Central Asia GDP - 1,6% MDG Eradicate extreme and hunger 1. Landry reform 3,8 mln. ha state 2,7 mln ha municipality 2,1 ha private State Investment Policy (Oil Revenues) State Regulations 1. Fiscal Policy 2. Programs 3. Adaptation to world standards 27
Food Price Volatility 200.0 180.0 160.0 World AZ 140.0 GE 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 KZ KG TK 40.0 20.0 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 RF UA *Source: FAO, SOFI 2012 55 Cost price of grain crops, per centner 2000 2005 2011 On Republic Total 5,80 6,52 17,37 28
Cost price of the vegetable per center 2000 2005 2011 On Republic Total 2,17 3,49 11,30 Cost price of weight growth of cattle per center 2000 2005 2011 On Republic Total 74,5 99,4 199,6 29
Cost price of milk per centner 2000 2005 2011 On Republic Total 10,2 11,9 27,7 Cost price of thousand eggs 2000 2005 2011 On Republic Total 16,1 37,9 66,6 30
Food Import Dependency Ratio, cereals (%) 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 World AZ KZ KG TJ TK TM UZ 1993-95 1998-00 2003-05 2006-08 2007-09 1993-95 1998-00 2003-05 2006-08 2007-09 World 14.4 14.9 15.1 15.9 15.7 AZ 36.1 38.8 35.3 41.3 37.8 KZ 0.4 1.3 1.6 2.9 3.0 KG 24.0 10.7 11.0 25.1 25.4 TJ 81.7 48.4 39.7 51.4 49.5 TK 6.2 9.3 7.5 10.2 13.8 TM 35.3 3.8 0.7 7.2 9.1 UZ 50.9 15.1 6.1 13.9 16.1 FAO, SOFI 2012 61 Food Balance Sheets Provide an approximate picture of the overall food situation in a country Useful for economic and nutritional studies Useful for preparing development plans Formulating related projects 31
Main Issues for FS 1. Multi- sector and cross cutting factors Food access: economic growth and wealth distribution including gender issue Food availability: agricultural productivity and natural resources Price volatility Stability: trade liberalization and stabilization Stability: macroeconomic, agriculture policy, investment, and social policy Utilization: food consumption pattern Social protection system and social food safety net including female headed smallholders 2. Main Challenges Growth of population driving demand Increasing income level in new growing economies Less land, land degradation Limited water resources Climate Change Environmental aspects Volatility of food prices as results of impact of complex factors Working out of adaptation mechanisms connected with climate changes a) Nutrition ration b) Cool stores c) Social protection mechanisms d) Mutual seed bases e) Agrarian science development Developed Countries Developing Countries Azerbaijan 2,4 % Agro GDP 0,59% Agro GDP 0,2% Agro GDP 32
Recommendations To launch a website dedicated to Post 2015 consultations Transition from the competitive production to competitive farmer formation Food wastes reducing for 30 % Among our recommendations İncrease scientific expenses not less than 1% of Agro GDP Support Government of Azerbaijan in building cool stores 33