Photovoltaic Solar: Market and Technology Trends (Industrial Application of Organic Photonics)

Photovoltaic Solar: Market and Technology Trends (Industrial Application of Organic Photonics) June 24, 2008 Fachri Atamny

Photovoltaic Solar Environment and Issues: Outline Solar Cell Market Environment and Issues - Market growth drivers - Market size, segments, and growth Photovoltaic Solar Technologies - Trends, Changes and Disruptions Industrial Applications of organic Photonics - SC vs. Displays vs. Solar Page 2 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers Primary Driver: Energy demand: - 2007: 13 terawatts - 2030: 18 terawatts - 2050: 26 terawatts Secondary Drivers (most are result of the primary driver: energy demand) Environmental issues (global worming / climate changes, CO 2 reduction/penalties) Oil Price (30 $ > 100$) Natural Gas Price Coal Price National Security (energy security concerns) Politics: Subsidy, feed in tariff (artificial market) Grid Parity (real market) Page 3 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers Energy Demand: World energy consumption 1980-2050 1'200 History Projection 1'021 13 terawatts (2007) Quadrillion Btu 1'000 800 600 400 200 283 309 347 366 400 447 511 559 607 654 702 771 847 930 18 terawatts (2030) 26 terawatts (2050) 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Projection: assumption that 1.9% growth in energy consumption p.a. 1 terawatts 1000 Nuclear Reactors Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. Page 4 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Market size, growth, and segments Energy Demand by Segmentation 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Electrical Power 54% 58% 58% 58% 59% 59% Transportation 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% Thermal 19% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 600 500 Quadrillion Btus 58% Electricity 400 300 200 27% Transportation 100 0 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Electr ical Power Tr anspor tation Ther mal 15% Thermal Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. Page 5 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Market size, growth, and segments Energy Total Market Size: Electricity [%] Coal 40.3 gas 19.7 Oil 6.6 Hydro 16 Nuclear 15.2 New renewable 2.2 Total [%] 100 67% 31% Hydro 16% Nuclear 15% New renewable 2% Coal 40% 2004 only ~0.06% of electricity generated worldwide was from PV solar. Oil 7% gas 20% Source: Credite Suisse, November 2007. Total Electricity Production Mix 2005; CLSA, Solar Maximum, May 2007. EIA, EPA, International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. Page 6 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Market size, growth, and segments Electricity World Market Size ca 150 GW per year GW 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 World Electricity Market OECD Non-OECD 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Electricity market: 2004 8 TW 2010 9.3 TW 2015 10.5 TW 2030 13 TW 2050 15 TW Source: Credite Suisse, November 2007; International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. Page 7 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy Demand Electricity Generation from Nuclear Power Reactor Number 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 11970 4 1975 7 10 1980 13 161985 22 1990 25 1995 28 31 2000 34 372005 40 Year [GW] Delta China India Russia South Korea Japan 2004 2015 2030 369 420 51 492 123 36 17 20 16 14-115 30 years old - 156 27 years old - 328 20 years old U.S.A Canada 13 Ca 10 Years are needed for planning and building a nuclear power plant 6 Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, International Atomic Enregy, World Nuclear Association; Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. Page 8 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers Environmental Issue: CO 2 Reduction CO2 level: (if NO CO 2 reduction takes place) 2007: 380 ppmv 2050: 550 ppmv 2100: 750 ppm CO 2 [ppmv] 380 550 750 Global Temp. Rise [ C] Consequences /Remarks +2 Coral reefs die. Upper limit. Serious for humans There is no natural destruction mechanism for carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Unlike the ozone depletion, it will not heal by itself through chemical processes. The time needed for 500 to 600 ppmv of CO2 to decay back o 300 ppmv is between 500 and 5000 years. The clean, carbon-free energy needed to stabilize CO2 level at 550 ppmv in 2050 is 15 20 terawatts Source: Engineering & Science 2/2007, World Energy Assessment Overview 2004, UNDP. Page 9 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy Demand Oil Price Development US$/bbl 100 80 60 40 20 1 st Gulf war Asia Crisis Reference case World Oil Prices in Three Cases Demand Recovery High Oil Price Reference Low Oil Price History Projections 0 1980 1995 2006 2015 2030 2006 2014 2030 Oil Price $ 68 49 59* US$/bbl 120 100 80 60 40 20 OPEC crisis Iran/Iraq war 1 st Gulf war Asia crisis Iraq war begins Afghanistan war begins Demand recovery 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 2007 already $100 (!) * $95 per barrel on a nominal basis. Source: Page International 10 24.01.2008 Energy Fachri outlook Atamny 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. The Council of the European Union. bbl=barrel

Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy Demand Coal Price Development US$/metric ton $ 140 120 100 80 40% of the Electricity is generated using coal. 60 40 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 The price per metric ton for coal out of Newcastle, Australia, is a key benchmark for the Asian market. 20 Increase of coal price leads to increase of Electricity price Source: Page 11 Photon 24.01.2008 Consulting, Fachri 3/2008; Atamny Wall Street Journal;

Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy Demand Natural Gas Price Development 10 LNG-Japan NG-EU NG US 20% US$/million Btu 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 of the Electricity is generated using gas. Increase of gas price 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 leads to increase of US$/million Btu = cost + insurance + freight Electricity price Page 12 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny Source: natural gas week

Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers Conclusions: Market Drivers Market is there: 13 TW (2007); 18 TW (2030); 26 TW (2050) To Dos - Create real market by achieving grid-parity to be competitive with conventional energy sources. Page 13 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny Typical electricity generation costs Solar (photovoltaic) Solar thermal Hydro Wind - offshore Geothermal Nuclear Wind - onshore Coal Natural gas 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

PV Solar Market Size and Growth 2007-2011: Summary Focus on: 7'729; 18% 546; 1% 139; 0% Europe North America Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa - EU: 61% - DE, SP, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal 80; 19% 26'449; 62% - Asia: 18% - Japan, China, S-Korea, India - N-America: 19% -US - Middle East 1% - Dubai, Oman, Abu Dhabi Page 15 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Photovoltaic Solar Technologies Technology Trends, Changes & Disruptions Inorganic PV Bulk Thin Film Silicon (Si) Ga / As Si CdTe CIS Single Crystal Wafer Multi-Crystal Wafer Ribbon Silicon Wafer Monocrystalline Polycrystalline Amorphous (a-si) Tandem (a-si/uc-si) CdTe CIS CIGS Highest Efficiency Highest Material Costs Rigid Lowest Invest Costs Medium Efficiency Medium Material Costs Rigid & Flexible Medium Invest Costs Organic PV Thin Film Dye Sensitized Full Organic Hybrid Liquid electrolyte Gel electrolyte Solid-state electrolyte Organic Organic* Organic Fullerene** Organic - Inorganic Lowest Efficiency Lowest Material Costs Rigid & Flexible Lowest Invest Costs * Organic includes organic molecules as well as polymers. Organic Organic means that both the donor and the acceptor are organic based materials. ** The polymer or the organic molecule acts as donor and fullerene derivates molecules acts as acceptors. Source: Oerlikon Page 17 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Semi, Displays, Solar: Complexity vs. Device Size Complexity TFT SC Display Solar OTFT SC DS Display Solar Device Size Page 19 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Information & Data Displaying Technology Principle - Stone - Leather - paper/ Plastic - Film, Slide etc - CRT -LCD -PDP -OLED Mechanical Chemical Electronic inorganic Organic Electronic Up-time Up Yield Up Throughput Up Automation Up Manuf. Steps Down MP Complexity Down Equipment $ Down Consumable Down Footprint Down Utilization Up Engineering Task Engineering Page 20 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny

Dye Sensitized Cells: Production Volumes & Planned Capacities Company Country Semiconductor G24 Innovation Production End 2006 Capacity End 2006 Capacity End 2007 Capacity End 2008 Capacity End 2009 Capacity End 2010 UK TiO 2 /dye 5 5 30 <200 (200) (200) Orionsolar PV Is TiO 2 /dye - - 2 (5) (10) (25) Solar Technol Greece TiO 2 /dye - - - 1.5 2 3 Peccell Technol Japan TiO 2 /dye - - - 0.5 1 2 Comparison: Page 21 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny Source: Sun & Wind Energy 1/2007; Capacity=MWp