Wind Energy: Overall Potential and Opportunities Prepared by: Jens Peter Molly, DEWI GmbH on behalf of UNIDO Global Renewable Energy Forum Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil 18 21 MAY 2008 SITE ASSESSMENT. WIND TURBINE ASSESSMENT. GRID INTEGRATION. DUE DILIGENCE. KNOWLEDGE. CONSULTANCY
Page 1 Content: General wind energy potential Overview of the current situation Potential trends Wind systems for remote areas Future challenges of wind energy Conclusions
Page 2 General Wind Energy Potential
Page 3 General Wind Energy Potential Solar Radiation: 1.5 10 21 Wh/a Wind Streams: 3.8 10 19 Wh/a (2.5%) Wind Power: 4.3 10 15 W Influences on the Wind: Wind Power Inst.: 9.4 10 10 W = 0.00054% Temperature Roughness World wide Electric Power Inst.: 3.2 10 12 W Wind Power Share: 2.9% Land winds Sea winds Obstacles Orography Up-winds Fall-winds Wind Power Potential is 1,300 times larger than today s world wide electric power installation
Page 4 Overview of the Current Situation
Page 5 Wind Power in the International Electricity Generation Market
Wind Energy: Overall Potential and Opportunities Cumulative Page 6
Page 7 Development of crude oil prices: 1960-2007 Copyright TECSON
Page 8 Crude oil - World market price in US-$ and in Euro
Page 9 Costs of Electricity Generation
Page 10 Competitiveness of Wind Power Generation Source: D. Milborrow, Windpower Monthly, January 2008
Page 11 Main Wind Energy Markets
Page 12 Annual Installed Capacity by Region (2003 2007) Source: Press release of GWEC from 2008/02/06
Page 13 Status of Global Wind Power Developmentattheend of 2007 Source: Press release of GWEC from 2008/02/06
Page 14 Annual Installed Wind Capacity by Countries 2004 2007 Annual installed wind capacity in MW 20000 16000 12000 8000 4000 Rest of world Canada UK Portugal Italy France Germany India China Spain USA 0 2004 2005 2006 2007* Source: Press release of GWEC from 2008/02/06 BTM Consult: World Market Update 2007
Page 15 Offshore Application of Wind Energy
Page 16 Offshore Application 1,000 MW installed today, mainly in North and Baltic Sea (up to 15 km distance to the coast and not more than 20 m water depth (Denmark, United Kingdom) Largest wind farms of today have 150 MW, wind turbine size of 2 to 3 MW 3,000 MW planned in Germany until 2012 (up to 150 km distance to the coast, water depths of more than 30 m, wind turbine size of 5 to 6 MW) German wind farm size: Pilot projects limited to 80 wind turbines Bottle necks are: construction and erection ships, sea cables, wind turbines Problems expected with life time of wind turbines and access for maintenance Future development to wind turbine sizes of more than 10 MW
Page 17 Accumulated Installed Capacity, MW 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 Scenario for the Accumulated Installed Capacity in Germany Offshore Scenario Onshore Scenario 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Source: WindEnergy Study 2006
Page 18 North Sea: Planned Offshore Wind Farms Sylt Horns Rev DK 2002 Sandbank 24 Nördlicher Grund DanTysk Butendiek Open North Sea (Borkum II) Amrumbank GlobalTech I West Nordsee Hochsee WP Ost Nordsee Bard He Dreiht Meerwind Südost/Ost Offshore 1 Alpha Ventus Delta Nordsee Helgoland Approved offshorewind farm Approved sea cable route Borkum Borkum Riffgrund West Gode Borkum Wind Riffgrund Nordergründe Riffgat Source: BSH / DEWI - Status: 2008-02-04
Page 19 Example: E.ON Electrical Grid Germany Power 400 MW Total 1,280 MW, HVDC Light Cable 128 km 75 km
Page 20 Foundations for Off shore Wind Turbines Mass Foundation Monopile Jacket Tripod Up to 10 m Up to 20 m >20 m >20 m
Page 21 Jacket (REpower 5M) Tripod (Multibrid M 5000) Offshore Test Foundations
Page 22 3 Pile Foundation Bard VM (Bard Engineering)
Page 23 State of the Art of Wind Turbine Development
Page 24 State of the Art of Wind Turbine Development Commercial size: up to 3 MW and 90 m rotor diameter Largest rotor diameter: 127 m, in development 150 m Design: 3 bladed, pitch controlled and variable rotor speed Drive drain: with and without gearbox Generator: double fed asynchronous, synchronous with inverter system, Rotor blade materials: GFRP, CFRP and mixture of both Tower: mainly tubular but also lattice towers with up to 160 m hub height
Page 25 Size of Wind Turbines Source: Thomas Krogh, RISØ
Page 26 Size of Wind Turbines 10,0 MW 6,0 7,5 MW 140 Rotor Diameter, m 120 100 80 60 Former Prototypes 600 kw 500 kw 1,5 MW 2,5 MW 40 50 kw 300 kw 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Page 27 Planetary compact gear with separate rotor support bearings Source: Bosch Rexroth
Page 28 Wind Turbine with Direct Drive Source: Manufacturer
Page 29 Remaining Wind Energy Potential
Page 30 Remaining Wind Energy Potential With only 45,000 MW wind power installation assumed in Germany in 2030, 1.4% of the German land area will be used Half of this land occupation means that 0.7% of the world s land area could be used for wind farms resulting in 10 TW power installation This would be 110 times more than today, but only 0.2% of the wind resource Today s world wide electric power plant installation is 3.2 TW (+ 2 TW until 2020)
Page 31 Future Scenario of Wind Energy Development
Wind Energy: Overall Potential and Opportunities Source: BTM Consult: World Market Update 2007 Page 32
Page 33 Different Wind Installation Capacity Growth Predictions 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Install. Capacity World, MW BTM Consult 2008 BTM Consult 2006 WindEnergy 2006 Windforce 12, 2004 EWEA 2004 Year
Wind Energy: Overall Potential and Opportunities Page 34
Page 35 Market Structure and Regulations
Page 36 Proposal for National Targets for the use of Renewable Energies in the European Union Share of energy from renewable sources in final consumption of energy (2005) Share Renewables in the final energy demand by 2020 Share of energy from renewable sources in final consumption of energy (2005) Share Renewables in the final energy demand by 2020 Austria 23.3% 34% Latvia 34.9% 42% Belgium 2.2% 13% Lithuania 15.0% 23% Bulgaria 9.4% 16% Luxembourg 0.9% 11% Cyprus 2.9% 13% Malta 0.0% 10% Czech Republic 6.1% 13% Netherlands 2.4% 14% Denmark 17.0% 30% Poland 7.2% 15% Estonia 18.0% 25% Portugal 20.5% 31% Finland 28.5% 38% Romania 17.8% 24% France 10.3% 23% Slovak Republic 6.7% 14% Germany 5.8% 18% Slovenia 16.0% 25% Greece 6.9% 18% Spain 8.7% 20% Hungary 4.3% 13% Sweden 39.8% 49% Ireland 3.1% 16% United Kingdom 1.3% 15% Italy 5.2% 17% Source: Commission of the European Communities, Brussels, 23 March 2008
Page 37 Reimbursement in Cent/kWh 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 8,36 Reimbursement for Newly Installed Wind Turbines (Status 2006) 8,36 7,94 3,30 6,47 1,65 4,64 4,82 18,22 10,89 12,98 5,76 7,33 7,22 9,70 6,50 3,20 7,30 7,05 7,30 7,05 Feed-in Tariff Price of Certificate Premium Market Price 8,20 8,20 7,30 7,30 0 Germany Spain Denmark Italy Great Britain Netherlands Portugal Austria France Greece
Page 38 Reimbursement for Newly Installed Wind Turbines Reimbursment for Electricity in Cent/kWh 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 18,34 18,06 1991 1992 14,22 12,11 12,04 10,07 9,90 inflationsbereinigte Werte von 2006 1991-2000: jährliche Vergütung; bis 1995 inkl. Landesförderungen ab 04/2000: Durchschnittsvergütung für 100%-Standort gemäß EEG nach 2006: 2% Inflation p.a. gemäß EZB-Ziel 9,53 9,30 9,01 9,34 9,23 8,95 8,73 8,53 8,37 8,08 7,76 7,45 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 until 03/2000 from 04/2000 2001 2002 2003 until 07/2004 from 08/2004 2005 7,16 6,87 6,59 6,32 6,05 5,80 Electricity Feed Law of 1991 EEG of 04/2000 Modified EEG of 08/2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Page 39 Wind Diesel Systems for Remote Areas Wind Diesel Systems are of small financial volume little interest of manufacturers to deliver small and few wind turbines No capital available in remote areas local people don t have money to invest in the capital intensive wind turbines No wind turbines available small wind turbines are nearly not available on the market Development possibility governmental energy development programme and operation by large utility. After local energy development connection to the grid is an option Wind systems in remote areas are not a large market today, they only represent a large potential!
Page 40 Future Challenges of Wind Energy Technical design of wind turbines reduction of loads, Increase of life time, new materials & production methods Long term wind energy yield predictions reduction of economic risks Short term wind power prediction integration of wind power in the transportation and distribution grid Offshore application reliability, maintenance, foundation structure optimisation
Page 41 Conclusions Installation 2007 : 94,000 MW Annual Market Growth: 20% Installation 2017: 691,000 MW Wind Energy 2017: 6% of Electricity Industry: > 1,000,000 Employees Use of 0.7% of Land Area for Wind Energy: 10 TW (0.2% of resource) Wind Turbine Size: > 10 MW
Page 42 Thank you for your Attention