The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk United States Association for Energy Economics February 2013 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types technology & policy
Population Trends Impact Energy Use World Population Billions of people
Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP Energy Demand Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs 2010-2040 AAGR % 2010-2040 AAGR % World 2.8% Other Non OECD 3.9% World 1.0% Energy Saved ~500 China 5.6% Other OECD 1.8% United States 2.3%
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 2040 2025 Electricity Demand 2010
Transportation
Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE Demand by Region MBDOE Rail 40 Marine Aviation 25 Heavy Duty 10 Light Duty
Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency Annual New Car Sales by Type Million Cars Incremental Vehicle Efficiency Gains Miles per Gallon 47 MPG Hybrid Vehicle Size Body & Accessories Average 27 MPG Powertrain
Gas Into Transportation By Sector BCFD 2040 by Region BCFD Rail Marine Heavy Duty Light Duty
Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel OECD MBDOE Non OECD MBDOE Natural Gas Other Fuel Oil Jet Fuel Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline
Refining Converts Oil Into Many Products Refining: Link between crude oil production and products demand LPG / Propane Chemicals feed Gasoline Refinery Aviation fuels Crude Oil Input Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil Diesel Refinery Lubes/Other Wax/Asphalt Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Electricity generation
Electricity Demand by Region Non OECD Thousand TWh OECD Thousand TWh Russia/Caspian Southeast Asia Other Non OECD Middle East Africa India Other OECD Europe OECD China North America
Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040 Quadrillion BTUs Renewables Nuclear Non OECD Renewables Nuclear Coal Gas Coal OECD Gas Oil Oil
Tale of Two Worlds Non OECD Quadrillion BTUs OECD Quadrillion BTUs Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal Gas Oil
Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Moderate CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons Emissions per Capita Tons / Person Emissions per GDP Tons / 2005$ k GDP 2010 Non OECD 2040 OECD 2010 2040
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 0.8% 2040 1.7% Average Growth / Yr. 2010-2040 2010 1.0% -0.1% 2.4% 0.4% 5.8% 1.8%
Supply
Liquids Supply Supply by Type MBDOE Resource* TBO Biofuels Other Liquids NGLs Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater Remaining Resource Conventional Crude & Condensate Cumulative Production * Source: IEA
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts North America Gas Supply BCFD Global Gas Supply BCFD LNG Rest of World Unconventional North America Unconventional Local Unconventional Rest of World Conventional Local Conventional North America Conventional
North America Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs 50 40 30 Net Imports Oil Net Exports 20 Regional Supply 10 0 2010 2025 2040 Gas Net Exports Total Energy Balance Net Imports Net Exports Regional Supply Regional Supply
Asia Pacific Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs 90 Oil 60 Net Imports 30 In-country supply 0 2010 2025 2040 Total Energy Balance 90 Gas Net Imports 60 30 Net Imports In-country supply 0 2010 2025 2040 In-country supply
Regional Energy Trends Evolve Demand By Region Percent of World Total North America Europe Russia/Caspian China Other AP Africa Middle East Latin America
Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Percent Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2040 Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
Conclusions
Population Trends Impacts Energy Use Population Billion Fertility Rate* Children per Woman Global Demographics* Billion Other Non OECD Age 65+ Africa Age 15-64 India China OECD Age 0-14 * Source: World Bank & United Nations
Residential/Commercial Outlook By Sector Quadrillion BTUs Residential Energy Intensity Million BTUs per Person Fuel Demand Quadrillion BTUs North America Commercial Other Electricity Europe OECD Residential Japan China Biomass India Coal Gas Oil
Industrial Energy Demand By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs By Region Quadrillion BTUs Market Heat Electricity Renewables Coal Rest of Non OECD India Gas China Oil OECD
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity Baseload, Startup 2030 2012 cents/kwh $60/ton of CO 2 Reliability Cost $0/ton *Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission