NWPP Members Market Assessment and Coordination Initiative Mid-C Seminar July 16 th, 2014 Dan Williams, LC Chair, Portland General Electric Slides not reviewed or approved by MC Members 1
Agenda History of NWPP Members Market Assessment and Coordination Initiative NWPP MC Phase 3 project update Impact to Pacific Northwest markets Recap and future plans 2
NorthWest Power Pool - 1944 Cooperation, coordination, and setting aside political differences allowed NW Utilities to meet the challenges of the day pooling diversity, leveraging flexibility, and operating on a least-cost basis for broad societal benefit. 3
NorthWest Power Pool - 2014 NWPP MC Footprint NWPP MC Initiative Members are building a platform for reinvigorating coordination and planning beyond the current Contingency Reserve Sharing Group s domain bringing the critical tools and stateawareness capabilities needed to deliver additional Member benefits 4
Historical (2000 s) PNW Reaction to Organized Market Solutions Uncertain cost-benefit calculus for the region Unique mix of resources and expectations Highly efficient bilateral markets Questionable results in other organized markets Legacy relationships, contracts, and expectations Lack of direct, pressing intrinsic drivers for change Positive reliability record in NWPP footprint sub-region Historically low transmission and power customer costs 5
Balancing Supply and Demand in the PNW PNW Generation - 59,000 MW Total 34,000 MW Hydro 9,000 MW Nat Gas 7,000 MW Coal 6,000 MW Wind Other PNW Demand - 22,000 MW-avg 36,000 MW Peak Exports Peak Demand - 4,300 MW to CAISO http://nwcouncil.org/ 6
Increasing Demand for Flexible Capacity Wind Forecast Error 7
Additional Sources of Market Volatility Coal Plant Closures 1,340 MW Centralia closing 2020-25 640 MW Boardman closing 2020 EPA Clean Power Plan Growth in solar generation across the WECC footprint 8
NWPP MC Opportunities Big Picture Coordinate operations while retaining local control and responsibility at the Balancing Authority level Share critical transmission system information while retaining individual transmission provider duties Capture diversity benefits through improved regional forecasting and optimal intra-hour dispatch of units Enhance reliability through wide-area visibility Focus SCED/EIM Market Operator on low-cost, highvalue, straightforward functions while minimizing regulatory changes 9
NWPP MC Initiative Looking Back Phase 1 March 2012June 2013 Phase 2 July 2013-Dec 2013 Phase 3 January 2014present Phase 3 Q-3/4 and beyond Production Cost Study Implementation Plan Development Technical and Policy Deliverables Alternative Evaluation Policy Issue Identification Technical and Policy Recommendations Cost Discovery for SCED Functions Decision Points Based on Phase 3 Information and Outcomes Funding Estimate Transmission/ Generation Visibility Enhancement Tools Future Phases Scoped, Developed, Funded 10
Phase 1 - Regional Value Proposition ($Millions in 2014; 2.5% Inflation Rate) (5.5% Discount Rate) $1,000.00 Flex Reserves Depends on Resource Sufficiency Requirements and other factors. $900.00 $800.00 $700.00 $600.00 $500.00 $400.00 Represents annual benefits clustering in the $70-80 million range in 2020$ $300.00 Represents range of costs for third-party estimates from SPP and CAISO plus a range of market participants cost submissions $200.00 $100.00 $0.00 Cost Benefit Costs (Operator+Participants): 14 years, 2014-2017 Start-up, 2018-2027 Operations, Entities borrow start-up capital at 4.5% interest rate and fully repay it in first 10 years of operation Low Range Costs are based on CAISO estimates High Costs assum e Stand-Alone Market Operator w ith high costs to develop softw are Benefits: 10 years, 2018 EIM launch date through 2027 Inflation Rate = 2.5% ; Discount Rate = 5.5% based on Participant feedback for capitalization exam ple purposes Pre-Decisional - Not Approved by MC
NWPP MC Phase 1 & 2 Key Outcomes No single solution addresses entire problem statement Intra-hour energy-only transactions are not sufficient Diversity benefits are real, but ability to access is constrained by existing transmission, coordination, and economic environment Region would benefit from comprehensive enhancements to its operations and commercial framework Building on foundation of reliability and self-determination Bolstering IT systems and operational infrastructure Addressing capacity sufficiency at the BA and entity level Capturing cost savings through accessing in-hour diversity Reinforcing bilateral market optimization Sharing critical data elements through improved coordination Respecting existing OATT-based investments 12
Building A Comprehensive Solution Set NWPP MC Reliability NWPP MC INITIATIVE 13
Reliability 14
MC Phase 3 Funding Organizations Avista Corporation Portland General Electric Balancing Authority of Northern California (BANC) Clark County PUD Bonneville Power Administration Snohomish County PUD B.C. Hydro/Powerex Eugene Water & Electric Board Idaho Power Company NaturEner NorthWestern Energy Puget Sound Energy Chelan County PUD PacifiCorp Grant County PUD Seattle City Light Tacoma Power Turlock Irrigation District WAPA, Upper Great Plains Over 100 staff committed to the project Budget - $4.3M for 2014 15 15
NWPP MC Initiative Looking Forward Phase 1 March 2012June 2013 Phase 2 July 2013-Dec 2013 Phase 3 January 2014present Phase 3 Q-3/4 and beyond Production Cost Study Implementation Plan Development Technical and Policy Deliverables Alternative Evaluation Policy Issue Identification Technical and Policy Recommendations Cost Discovery for SCED* Functions Decision Points Based on Phase 3 Information and Outcomes Funding Estimate Transmission/ Generation Visibility Enhancement Tools End-State Scoped, Developed, Funded * Security Constrained Economic Dispatch 16
MC Phase 3 Summary Scope Suring Up Operational Foundations Regional Flow Forecast on Targeted Flowgates Resource Monitoring and Deliverability for Energy / Capacity Regional Data Sharing Tools for BAs and Merchants Operations Integration Between Functional Roles Developing Market Coordination Opportunities 15-Minute Flexible Capacity Product Facilitation Resource Sufficiency Baseline Metric and Testing Develop NWPP MC SCED Protocols for RFP Issuance Legal Vendor Agreements and FERC Engagement 17
Evolution of Core Operational Capabilities Phase 3 Dispatch Monitor Resource Resource Energy Deliverability Sufficiency Deliverability Table-Top Implemented Tests Forecast 3hr Regional Flow Forecast Trials Monitor Forecast Dispatch 24hr Regional Flow, Load and Wind Forecast BA/LSEs Utilize Advisory Resource Sufficiency Guidance Near realtime Demand Forecast Economic Energy Dispatch 18
Data Sharing Conceptual Diagram Data exchange between participants and Peak Reliability Participants Peak Reliability Data Repository Visualization Portal Data Sharing Team Data input to tools Phase 3 Tools Information outputs Tools Teams 19
Regional Flow Forecast (RFF) 20
NWPP MC Use of SCED Platform (aka, EIM) Fundamentals Flow-based transmission monitoring and unit dispatch by central operator Wide-area footprint to maximize diversity benefits with leastcost 5-min dispatch of resources voluntarily made available to market Entities prevented from leaning on each other s capacity through binding Resource Sufficiency tests prior to operating hour Improved reliability and efficiency of within-hour load/resource balancing, including for variable energy resources Individual BA s retain responsibility for NERC requirements 21
SCED/EIM Deployment Example Increasing load 22
SCED/EIM Deployment Example * Assuming Increasing loadfeasible delivery 23
SCED/EIM Dispatchable Range Dispatchable Range based upon data from: Offer curves Resource Plans AS Plans State Estimator 24
SCED/EIM Relation to Bilateral Markets Resource Optimization and Trading Activity Term & Daily 90% Real Time EIM 10% Increasing load 25
MC Phase 3 Program Management Update Schedule Overview 2015 2014 Feb Mar Mobilization Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NWPP MC Phase 3 Software Critical Path Requirements and Technical Design Contracting Vendor Implementation and Future State User Testing NWPP MC Continuation Critical Path Resource Sufficiency and SCED Design Ongoing Resource Sufficiency and SCED Design Refinements SCED RFP Evaluation Recommendation Preparation FERC, BPA Authority and other Regulatory Activities EC Decision Points Data Resolution RFP Issuance Continuation 26
MC Phase 3 Project Update Accomplishments as of July 2014 Resource Sufficiency Draft Metric being reviewed SCED Design Draft being reviewed RFP template completed FERC engagement on critical Governance issues Multiple education sessions held with national SMEs BA community site-visits planned for Q3-2014 Regional Flow Forecast data requirements, tool specs, and vendor statement of work completed Regional Flow Proof of Concept completed Peak RC Enhanced Study Tools Assessment Completed Peak vendor agreements nearing completion OATi Liquidity Month (WebExchange) report pending Supporting WSPP Sched D/E + intra-hour confirm process 27
Impact to Northwest Markets 28
Impact to Northwest Markets Reliability greater certainty that transactions will flow, less real-time curtailments due to transmission management Efficiency better understanding of who is carrying capacity, less real-time curtailments due to balancing capacity management (DSO-216 and similar) Integrity tighter cost-causation coupling and increased operational transparency Intangibles: reduced employee O&M, enhanced planning inputs for generation and transmission upgrades, improved regulatory climate, 29
RECAP: NWPP MC Goals Maximize Benefits - Minimize Risks Coordinate operations while retaining local control and responsibility at the Balancing Authority level Share critical transmission system information while retaining individual transmission provider duties Capture diversity benefits through improved regional forecasting and optimal intra-hour dispatch of units Enhance reliability through wide-area visibility Focus Market Operator on low-cost, high-value, straightforward functions while minimizing regulatory changes 30
NWPP MC Initiative Next Steps Reliability NWPP MC Capitalize on unique opportunity Make efficient use of resources and deliver tangible customer benefits Address operational concerns and be responsive to local priorities Adapt outcomes to future changes and opportunities Decisions on future MC activity coming Q1-2015 31
Questions questions@nwppmc.org (or) dan.williams@pgn.com Slides not reviewed or approved by all MC Members 32