Journal of Food Legumes 26 (1&2): 86-92, 2013 Growth and Trends of Pulse Production in India M. K. SHARMA, B.V.S. SISODIA and KANHAIYA LAL 1 Department of Agricultural Statistics, N. D. University of Agriculture & Technology, Kumarganj, Faizabad-224229 Uttar Pradesh, 1 Indian Institute of Pulses Research, Kalyanpur, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, E-mail: regressionmk@gmail.com (Received: January 27, 2013; Accepted: June 21, 2013) ABSTRACT This paper examines the growth and trend of pulse production in India using time series data on area, production, yield and trade pertaining to the period 1980-81 to 2008-09. The period has been divided into two parts viz., before (1980-81 to 1994-95) and after (1995-96 to 2008-09). Linear, semi-log growth function and compound growth function were tried to examine the growth and trend. The compound growth was, however, found to have best fitting with the data. The positive percent in area, production and yield of pigeonpea, chickpea and total pulse have been observed during both before and after the launch of TMOP except in case of lentil there was negative percent in area of chickpea and yield of pigeonpea also showed negative percent before the launch of TMOP. The pigeonpea showed positive growth in area and production to the time of 0.50 and 0.20 percent annually while its yield has shown downtrend with 0.30 percent annually. In chickpea, the positive of 0.20, 0.50 and 0.30 percent annually in area, production and yield during post period of TMOP have been found. The area and production of lentil have grown up by 1.80 and 2.50 percent annually, respectively during the entire period of study, while its yield observed negative growth rate 0.20 percent during post period of TMOP. For total pulse production and yield have risen by 0.50 and 0.70 percent annually, respectively, during the entire period of study while its area has been down by 0.20 percent per annum. The import and export of pulses have also grown up substantially per annum to the tune of 8.90 land 23.40 percent annually during the entire period. Effective increase in area and yield has mattered in general in fetching differential production of pulses during post period. Area of pulses has been most stable with few exceptions as compared to production and yield of pulse corps indicating thereby technological interaction in the pulse production. On other hand, instability in export and import has, however, been quite high during the period of study. Key words: Growth rate, Trend, Technology Mission on Pulses In India, the word pulse is used to describe the seeds of legumes that are usually dicotyledons. During recent past, these pulses are becoming out of reach from the common people of country because of its shoring prices. Till today the country has not been able to achieve self-sufficiency in pulse production as compare to its aggregate demand. In India pulses are grown on 22-23 million hectares of land with an annual production of 13-15 million tonnes (mt). India accounts for 33% of the world area and 22% of the world production of pulses. The major pulse crops grown in country are chickpea, pigeonpea, lentil, moong bean, urd bean and field pea. Due to stagnant production, the net availability of pulses has come down from 60 gm/day/person in 1951 to 31 gm/day/person (Indian Council of Medical Research recommends 65 gm/day/ capita) in 2008. Stagnant production in the country has contributed to steep increase in prices of pulses. During this period domestic pulse prices have increased relative faster as compare to other food prices. Department of Agriculture & Co-operation under Union Agriculture Ministry has launched Technology Mission on Pulses (TMOP) during August 1990, under which, new and improved technologies, timely supply of necessary inputs, extension support, remunerative price for the produce, marketing infrastructure and post-harvest technologies were provided for increasing pulses production with the Mission Mode approach. The pulses imports grew at CAGR 8.90% from 172.96 thousand tonnes in 1980-81 to 2274.11 thousand tonnes in 2008-09. The import of pulses increased steadily due to low import tariff rates (attracting low or zero duty). Interestingly, India s export of pulses grew at a far greater pace than its imports i.e. from 1.09 thousand tonnes in 1980-81 to 136.27 thousand tonnes in 2008-09 with 23.40 CAGR. The time series data pertaining to 1980-81 to 2008-09 have been considered, which has been divided into two periods, before (1980-81 to 1994-95) and after (1995-96 to 2008-09) the launch of Technology Mission on pulse production to carry out study on growth pattern of major pulse corps viz. chickpea, pigeonpea and lentil in India. Impact evaluation of TMPP has been also carried out in the present paper. MATERIALS AND METHODS The time series data pertaining to the period from 1980-81 to 2008-09 on area, production and yield of different pulse crops, viz., Pigeonpea, Chickpea, lentil and total pulses have been used to study the growth trends. The time series data have been procured from Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India. In order to take of randomness in data, the three-years moving average methods is applied. The statistical methodologies used for the analysis of time series data has been described in the following subsections.
Sharma et al. : Growth and Trends of Pulse Production in India 87 Growth rate The growth rate in area, production and yield of different pulse crops have been worked out by fitting the following three different functions: 1. Simple linear function Y t = a + bt 2. Logarithmic function log Y t = a + bt 3. Compound growth rate function Y t = a(1+r) t Y t : where, Time series data on area/production/yield of pulse crops at time t, a & b are parameters of the function to be estimated. t : Time index (t= 1,2,..,n) r : Average compound growth rate per annum. The time series data on area and production were smoothed by moving-average method, before the fitting of the above functions. After fitting the first linear trend function by least-square method, the annual linear growth rate is computed by bˆ r = x100 where, Y is arithmetic mean of Y Y t. Logarithmic function was fitted by least square method and estimate of b as b ~ was obtained. The annual growth rate is then computed by ~ r = b x 100 To obtain annual compound growth rate, the third function was first linearised by taking natural log on both side, i.e. log Y t = log a + t log (1+r) or * * Yt = a + bt where, =log Y t, a* = log a and b= log (1+r) The above linearised function was fitted by least square method and estimate of b as bˆ was obtained. The annual compound growth rate is then computed by r = (antilog of bˆ -1) x 100 All growth rates are expressed in percentage. The best fitted function was judged on the basis of R 2 (coefficient of determination) and root mean square error (RMSE) both. Sources of Growth Broadly, there are two sources of growth in crop production: (i) Change in acreage of crop and (ii) in productivity of crop. Growth in production in terms of differential production between two points of time has been decomposed in order to study the effect of in acreage and productivity. Let Y, A and P be the production, acreage and yield of a particular pulse crop/ total pulses at a given point of time. The Y can be expressed as Y = P. A Let ΔY, ΔA, ΔP be in production, acreage and yield of the crop after a specific period of time. So, we have Y+ ΔY = (A+ ΔA) (P+ ΔP) Y +ΔY = AP + ΔA P + ΔP A + ΔPΔA Therefore, we have ΔY = ΔA P +ΔP A+ ΔPΔA Thus, the total differential production is composed of three components: PΔA : Effect of in acreage of the crop AΔP : Effect of in yield the crop ΔPΔA : Interaction effect due to simultaneous in acreage and yield of the crop The effects of in acreage, yield and their interaction to the total differential production of the crops for each period and also for overall period have been worked out. Measure of instability in pulse production High growth and low instability in production are prerequisites for sustainable agricultural performance. It has been a great concerned that technological s in crops production has increased variability, which is considered to be one of the threats to food security. Since the magnitude of growth and instability in pulse production has serious implications for policy makers, the level of instability in the area, production and yield of different pulse crops will be estimated using suitable statistical tools. The simple coefficient of variation (c.v.) often contains the trend component and thus overestimate the level of instability in time series data characterized by long term trend. To overcome this problem, a measure of instability is estimated by using Cuddy Della Valle Index which corrects the coefficient of variations and it is given by Instability index = 2 cv 1 R where, R 2 is the coefficient of determination from a time trend regression adjusted by the number of degree of freedom. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Changes in area, production and yield of pulse crops between different periods The triennium averages of area, production and yield ending at 1980-81 and 1994-95 for pre period and at 1995-96
88 Journal of Food Legumes 26 (1&2), 2013 and 2008-09 for post period have been computed alongwith per cent. The overall percent s during the period 1980-81 to 2008-09 have also been computed. Area: The Table 1 provides the triennium average of area. It is obvious from the table that within the period the lentil and pigeonpea have been found and positive as 23.18% and 18.81%, however, the Chickpea has shown the negative as 6.86% alongwith total pulse also shows little negative in area as 2.16%. Within post period are shown that positive has been recorded in all crops and highest in Chickpea (6.47%) and lentil (6.27%) followed by pigeonpea (3.37) and total pulses (1.94). The impact of Pulse Technology Mission the area of all crops has increased and highest in lentil (44.62%) followed by pigeonpea (21.64%) and Chickpea (4.91%). However, an overall decrease in area under total pulses has been quite marginal to the tune of about 0.31 percent during the last 29 years. Production: The triennium averages of production of the different pulse crops for different periods are depicted in Table 2. The maximum increase of 60.13 percent has been found in case of lentil followed by pigeonpea (15.67%) and Chickpea (11.08%), while total pulse production has positive as 18.12 percent within the pre period. The post period production shows maximum in Chickpea (14.75%) followed by pigeonpea (12.25%) and lentil (7.68%). This produced in total pulse production positive as 10.11 percent. Overall has found maximum in lentil followed by chickpea and pigeonpea as 84.09, Table 1: Change in area of pulses between two periods (triennium ending average) 34.22 and 23.68 percent, respectively. However, the significant increase of about 28.02 percent has been recorded in case of total pulses during the last 29 years. Yield: The yield of pigeonpea has recorded as downfall by 2.65 per cent, within the pre period while Chickpea and lentil shows satisfactory increase as 18.25% and 29.92%, respectively (Table 3). The total pulse shows positive in yield as 20.75 percent. On the other hand, the yield of all pulse crops has stepped up i.e. 8.60, 7.66 and 1.97 per cent for pigeonpea, chickpea and lentil, respectively; however, total pulse got little positive in yield as 8.10 within post period. It may be observed that in spite of shorter increase of yield in pigeonpea (1.56%) while the lentil and chickpea shows significant positive as 27.57 and 27.52 percent, respectively between two periods. The total pulse recorded as a satisfactory positive in yield as 28.54%. Growth behaviour of major pulse crops: Annual growth rates of area, production and yield of major pulse crops and total pulses have been worked out using three functions, viz., linear, logarithmic and compound growth for two periods (before and after the launch of Pulse Technology Mission) and also for the entire period under study. The compound growth function was found best based on R 2 and RMSE. Therefore, the annual growth rates based on compound growth function are presented in this section. The values of R 2 and RMSE for compound growth function are also given this table. Crop Pre period Percent Post period Percent Overall Percent 1980-81 1994-95 1995-96 2008-09 Pigeonpea 2.92 3.47 18.81 3.44 3.56 3.37 21.64 Chickpea 7.28 6.78-6.86 7.18 7.64 6.47 4.91 Lentil 0.96 1.18 23.18 1.30 1.39 6.27 44.62 Total Pulses 23.04 22.55-2.16 22.53 22.97 1.94-0.31 Table 2: Change in production of pulses between two periods Crop Pre period Percent Post period Percent Overall Percent 1980-81 1994-95 1995-96 2008-09 Pigeonpea 2.06 2.39 15.67 2.27 2.55 12.25 23.68 Chickpea 4.75 5.28 11.08 5.56 6.38 14.75 34.22 Lentil 0.48 0.77 60.13 0.83 0.89 7.68 84.09 Total Pulses 11.33 13.39 18.12 13.18 14.51 10.11 28.02 Table 3: Change in yield of pulses between two periods Crops Pre period 1980-81 1994-95 Percent Post period 1995-96 2008-09 Percent Overall Percent Pigeonpea 705 686-2.65 659 716 8.60 1.56 Chickpea 654 773 18.25 775 834 7.66 27.52 Lentil 505 656 29.92 631 644 1.97 27.57 Total Pulses 492 594 20.75 585 632 8.10 28.54
Sharma et al. : Growth and Trends of Pulse Production in India 89 Pigeonpea: The area has registered positive growth rate of 1.70, 0.40 and 0.50 percent annually during the first, second and entire periods, respectively. The production has little increased by 0.60, 0.80 and 0.20 per cent annually first periods, second period and the entire period, respectively. The first period has registered as downfall in the growth of productivity, i.e. by 1.10 per cent per annum. On the other hand, productivity has increased by 0.40 percent annually during the second period. However, the overall growth rate of productivity has been a negative to the tune of 0.30 percent annually. Chickpea: The chickpea has registered steadily downfall in its area at the rate of 1.20 percent annually since 1980-81 onwards. It can also be seen from the Table 5 that this increment was prominent during second period (0.20%) as against decline 0.10 percent during overall period. The production has also declined considerably by 0.20 percent annually since 1980-81 onwards. The second period has experienced shorter increment (0.50%) as compared to a little increment during overall period (0.80%). However, it has been a satisfaction as far as is concerned with the growth rate of its productivity. It has registered an overall growth rate of 1.00 percent annually. It increased by about 1.00 percent annually during the first period as against about 0.30 per cent during the second period. Obviously, the production of Chickpea has been sustained at some level due to the growth in its yield. Lentil: The area has increased by about 1.80 percent annually since 1980-81 onwards. This increasing growth rate was more prominent during the first period (2.10%) as compared to about 0.60 percent during the second period. The production of lentil has also increased at the annual growth rate of about 2.50 per cent since 1980-81 onwards. First period witnessed high growth rate of 4.60 percent as against 0.30 percent during the second period. The yield of lentil has experienced upward trend and it has found to be 0.70 per cent per annum since 1980-81 onwards. This growth rate has been found to be more in the first period (2.40%) as compared to slightly decline by 0.20 percent in the second period. Total Pulses: The area under total pulse has slightly declined by about 0.20 percent annually since 1980-81 onwards. This negative growth rate was more prominent during the first period (0.20%) as compared to that of about a little increment by 0.30 percent during the second period. An overall positive growth rate of production by about 0.50 percent has been observed. However, it was more in the first period (1.00%) as compared to about 0.50 percent in the second period. The yield of total pulses has registered a nominal positive growth Table 4: Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) of area, production and yield of different pulse crops in India Crops Period Area Production Yield R 2 RMSE Area Production Yield Area Production Yield Pigeonpea Pre 1.70** 0.60** -1.10** 87.40 14.30 44.50 0.0316 0.0632 0.0447 Post 0.40** 0.80** 0.40** 57.80 23.60 9.60 0.0000 0.0548 0.0447 Overall 0.50** 0.20** -0.30** 50.10 7.40 18.70 0.0447 0.0548 0.0548 Chickpea Pre -1.20** -0.20** 1.00** 62.90 1.90 76.30 0.0447 0.0548 0.0316 Post 0.20** 0.50** 0.30** 0.70 3.30 20.00 0.0949 0.1049 0.0316 Overall -0.10** 0.80** 1.00** 1.40 37.90 87.00 0.0707 0.0894 0.0316 Lentil Pre 2.10** 4.60** 2.40** 95.90 91.90 83.50 0.0000 0.0548 0.0447 Post 0.60** 0.30** -0.20** 29.60 3.50 5.40 0.0316 0.0548 0.0316 Overall 1.80** 2.50** 0.70** 93.10 82.60 41.70 0.0447 0.0894 0.0632 Total Pre -0.20** 1.00** 1.20** 12.30 60.40 82.20 0.0000 0.0316 0.0000 pulse Post 0.30** 0.50** 0.20** 10.00 11.20 8.20 0.0316 0.0548 0.0316 Overall -0.20** 0.50** 0.70** 23.30 47.30 77.00 0.0316 0.0447 0.0316 ** indicates significant at 1%, * indicates significant at 5% and + indicates significant at 10% Table 5: Annual growth rate (%) of import and export of total pulse in India Function Period Value Quantity R 2 RMSE Value Quantity Value Quantity Import Pre 23.20** 13.10** 72.50 61.40 0.5244 0.3950 Post 18.80** 15.10** 81.00 73.20 0.3162 0.3225 Overall 16.40** 8.90** 88.70 76.10 0.4382 0.3873 Export Pre 54.20** 31.00** 99.20 96.20 0.1581 0.2191 Post 11.80** 8.50** 81.70 62.80 0.2000 0.2366 Overall 34.00** 23.40** 93.50 94.40 0.6237 0.4159 ** indicates significant at 1%, * indicates significant at 5% and + indicates significant at 10%
90 Journal of Food Legumes 26 (1&2), 2013 rate of about 0.70 percent annually. The second period has witnessed shorter positive growth rate of about 0.20 percent while it was positive growth rate of about 1.20 per cent during the first period. Thus, the overall growth of total pulse production has not been commensurate with its demand due to the growth of the population in the country. Import: The import value of pulses has quite higher in first period (23.20%) as against second period (18.80%). The import value has experienced as quite positive growth rate about 16.40 percent annually since 1980-81 onwards (Table 5). Almost same trend followed for quantity by 8.90 percent positive annual growth since 1980-81 onwards. The second period has registered positive high growth rate of 15.10 percent in quantity as compared to 13.10 during first period. However, in value term the growth rate was more (23.20%) in first period as against (18.80%) in second period. This might be probably due to instability in prices of the pulse. Export: The export value of pulses has grown up by 54.20% annually during the first period as against of 11.80 percent during the second period (Table 5). The export value has experienced substantial positive growth rate about 34.00 percent annually since 1980-81 onwards. Same trend followed for quantity by 23.40 percent positive annual growth since 1980-81 onwards. The first period has been more prominent by showing positive growth rate of 31.0 percent as compared to 8.50 percent positive growth rate during the second period. The result of the Table 5 clearly indicates that the annual growth rate of export of pulses is more than that of import of pulses since 1980-81. The prices of the pulses have shot up during recent years, and the pulses have become out of reach to the common people. Therefore, there is urgent need of policy intervention in export-import of pulses in order to downplay of prices of pulses in the country. Effect of in acreage and yield on growth of pulse production: The initial phase (between 1980-81 to 1995-96) corresponds to the introduction of new pulse crop technologies and its up-take by early adopters. The following period, since 1995-96, corresponds to the rapid adoption of the new and improved technology by an increasing number of growers across regions and seasons. In case of pigeonpea, the increase in production during the first period is characterised by increase in its acreage (120%) while during the second period it is due to by and large effectively increase in yield (70%). On contrary to pigeonpea, the increase in production of chickpea during first period has been marked due to effect of increase in its yield (174%) whereas effects of increase in area and yield both have contributed 44 and 53% its towards its positive differential production during the second period. In case of lentil effects of increase in area and yield both have contributed towards its positive differential production i.e., 39 and 50 percent respectively, in the first period and 82 and 17 percent, respectively, in the second period. An overall examination of Table 6 indicates a considerable impact of technological s on total pulse productions since 1980-81 onwards as the effect of increase in its yield has contributed about 101 percent in its total differential production till 2008-09. Both the periods have witnessed positive effect of increase in yield in production differential of total pulses i.e. 114 and 79 percent, respectively. However, the increase in its area during second period has also contributed by 19 percent in its differential production. The overall result indicates that the new technologies quickly spread to new areas, particularly in pigeonpea and chickpea. That has explained in total pulses output growth improvements in yields which have largely been due to pure and it has been evidently a major source of output growth in total pulses. This adoption pattern of the new technology up-take by early adopters followed by a rapid spread across growers has been to be also consistent with the output growth of individual pulse crop as well. Instability analysis Pulse crops: The measure of instability in the pulse production has been determined by using Instability Index (I.I.) as described in Section 3. The instability index for area, production and productivity has been computed for two periods; i.e. before and after the launch of Technology Mission and also for the entire period under study. The results are presented in Table 7. Low instability index has been found in case of area of pigeonpea as compared to that of its production and yield in both the periods as well as in the entire period. It may be observed from the table that the second period has witnessed high instability in production and yield in comparison to that of first period. However, there has been low instability of 3.09% in area during the second period indicating thereby more or less similar area during this period. Chickpea has observed high instability in area and production as compared to their yield during both the period and also in entire period. Lentil crop has recorded higher instability in production followed by yield and area for the first, second and entire periods. In total pulses, it can be observed from the table that the second period has registered high instability in area, production and productivity in comparison to the first period. The overall result of Table 7 reveals that the variability has increased in yields of major pulse crops viz. pigeonpea, chickpea and lentil and also in the yields of total pulses during the second period. This phenomenon can possibly be attributed to technological s in pulse production after
Sharma et al. : Growth and Trends of Pulse Production in India 91 Table 6: Table 7 : Source of Growth (%) in production of major pulse crops/total pulses in India Crops Period Increase in Production (tonnes) Pigeonpea Chickpea Lentil Area effect (%) Yield effect (%) Interaction effect (%) Pre 16 120-17 -3 Post 12 28 70 2 Overall 24 91 7 2 Pre 11-62 174-12 Post 15 44 53 3 Overall 34 14 82 4 Pre 60 39 50 12 Post 8 82 17 1 Overall 84 53 32 14 Total pulses Pre 18-12 114-2 Post 10 19 79 2 Overall 28-1 101 0 Instability index of area, production and yield for different period different of pulse crops in India Crops Period Area Production Yield Pigeonpea Chickpea Lentil Total Pulses Table 8: Pre 4.20 10.43 8.40 Post 3.09 12.45 10.89 Overall 4.84 11.40 9.78 Pre 9.46 14.39 7.32 Post 12.11 14.96 6.14 Overall 10.98 14.53 6.74 Pre 3.36 7.20 5.67 Post 5.20 10.26 7.51 Overall 5.64 10.91 8.26 Pre 3.72 6.92 4.51 Post 4.64 8.98 6.07 Overall 4.25 8.19 5.65 Instability index of export and import (in %) pulse crops in India Period Export Import Quantity Value Quantity Value Pre 50.12 71.14 54.37 78.96 Post 54.56 52.39 53.62 52.72 Overall 75.18 77.45 61.99 75.90 launch of TMPP in 1990. Obviously, the increased variability in yields has resulted to the increased variability in production. Low instability indices of area under total pulses indicate that its area remained almost stable during the entire period under study. However, the instability indices for chickpea and lentil have been found to be at higher side during the second period as against that of the first period. This might also be happened as an impact of launch of TMOP wherein additional area might have been brought under cultivation by increased number of growers of pulse crops. Import and export: It has been observed form the Table 8 that there has been high instability in the post period as compared to the first period for quantity of export, while it has been found reverse in terms of value of export. Export of pulses has recorded high instability for both quantity and value since 1980-81 onwards. Import shows high instability in the first period as compare to the second period for both quantity and value. The import also has recorded high instability for the quantity and value for entire period. These high instability indices indicate that there has been substantial fluctuation in the export and import of pulses in India. This two phenomenon, however, relate to the growth of pulse production, its pries in national and international market consumption level and policy intervention in the country. Such phenomena would of course contribute to be so in future too and export and impact of pulses would ever exhibit in general high instability index. The study makes it clear that the performance of pulse production had been quite satisfactory after launch TMOP. The impact of TMPP on pulse production can clearly be seen by growth in area and yield of pigeonpea and chickpea whereas by growth in area in case of lentil. Again so far as changing pattern of pulse crops is concerned during two periods, the chickpea has taken a lead in term of relative more increase in area, production and yield in post period. In case of total pulse, increase in its area remained below 2 percent during post period against decrease of 2.16 percent in pre period. Therefore, increased productions in total pulses have been obtained mostly due to increase in its yield. The analysis of sources of growth clearly indicated the yield effect has been dominant on area effect due to improvement of high yielding varieties and awareness. The impact of trade liberalization has been quite visible on the growth rates of import and export of pulses in India. High instability has been recorded in second period for all crops indicating thereby impact of technological intervention in this period. In short, to increase area and production of pulse crops we need crop specific and region specific approaches, which should be adopted in the overall framework of systems approach.
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