Energy Security in the Black Sea Region in the Wake of the Ukrainian Crisis Woodrow Wilson Center 19 June, 2014, Washington, D.C.
Content What is the Index of Energy Security Risks? Energy security risks in the Black Sea region The case of Bulgaria regional trends Aggravating factors Governance issues Russian influence EU involvement US involvement Possible strategies forward
Tools for Quantifying Energy Security: Institute for 21 st Century Energy (1) Index of U.S. Energy Security Risk: Assessing America's Vulnerabilities in a Global Energy Market: annual energy risk indicator uses quantifiable data, historical trend information, and government projections retrospective look from 1970 to nowadays, and prospectively from nowadays to 30 years ahead International Index of Energy Security Risk (IIESR): new tool (started in 2012) to help better understand and assess international energy markets 75 countries (top energy users), 8 metric groups, 28 index values Only historical data (back to 1980), no projections
Tools for Quantifying Energy Security: Institute for 21 st Century Energy (2) IIESR metrics used to rank 75 countries: global fuel reserves fuel imports national energy expenditure price and market volatility energy use intensity reliability of electricity generation efficiency of the transport sector environmental factors
Index of Energy Security Risks: Black Sea Region Countries Scores Index points 3000 2500 2000 1754 2060 2237 2346 2425 1500 1000 1073 1000 1100 1104 1169 1189 1259 500 0 Source: Institute for 21 st Century Energy
Common Energy Security Vulnerabilities (1) Energy expenditure Energy efficiency and intensity Market volatility Fossil fuel import exposure and dependence Fossil fuel import expenditure to GDP intensity CO2 to GDP intensity
Common Energy Security Vulnerabilities (2) Positive results/developments: Coal import exposure (100% below average OECD risk levels) Electricity capacity diversity (72% below average OECD risk levels) CO 2 emissions trend (48% below average OECD risk levels) Transport energy per capita (42% below average OECD risk levels) Energy consumption per capita (42% below average OECD risk levels) Retail electricity prices (31% below average OECD risk levels) CO 2 per capita (30% below average OECD risk levels) Main energy security challenges: Energy expenditure volatility (3180% above average OECD risk levels) Energy expenditure intensity (855% above average OECD risk levels) Fossil fuel import expenditure per GDP (377% above average OECD risk levels) CO2 GDP intensity (370% above average OECD risk levels) Energy intensity (289% above average OECD risk levels) Petroleum intensity (252% above average OECD risk levels) Transport energy intensity (197% above average OECD risk levels) Gas import exposure (134% above average OECD risk levels)
Bulgaria (1) Bulgaria vs. OECD Risk Index Score Risk Variance from OECD 3,000 Bulgaria vs OECD: Risk Index Score 200 Bulgaria: Risk Variance from OECD 2,500 150 Risk Index Score 2,000 1,500 Percent 100 50 1,000 0 500 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Bulgaria OECD average -50 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Bulgaria OECD average Source: Institute for 21 st Century Energy
Bulgaria (2) Dynamics of Fossil Fuel Import as a % of GDP (Nominal) (1998-2012) 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.4% 8.9% 12.7% 10.4% 9.3% 8.4% 8.5% 13.3% 13.5% 12.2% 11.1% 8.2% 9.5% 10.9% 13.1% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source:BNB/NSI
Bulgaria (3) Dynamics of Fossil Fuel Import Growth vs. GDP Growth (Nominal) (1998-2012) 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% GDP Growth 0.0% -20.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fossil Fuel Import Growth -40.0% -60.0% Source:BNB/NSI
Bulgaria (4) Average Annual Income per Household and Percentage of Expenditure on Energy in Bulgaria (1999-2012) leva/year 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Average yearly income per household and percentage of expenditure on energy in Bulgaria 4179 4360 4307 10.3 10.8 10.8 5289 11.1 5584 11.5 5925 11.7 6158 12.1 6657 12.5 7818 11.5 8686 12.7 9122 9023 13.1 12.9 9251 13.0 10244 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average yearly household income Expenditure on energy (electricity, water, heating) % 14.4 15 14.5 14 13.5 13 % 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 10 Source: Eurostat
Bulgaria (5) Main Heating Source by Type of Settlement (2011) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 0.68% 0.89% 0.15% 0.23% 16.37% 19.81% 22.72% 14.86% 32.38% 4.15% Gas Central heating (incl on gas) 50% 28.62% Coal 40% 38.26% 30% 62.81% Electricity 20% 10% 34.10% 22.75% Wood 0% Total Urban Rural Source: NSI
Governance Deficiencies: Transparency and Corruption Rankings Heritage Foundation: Index of Economic Freedom Turkey Georgia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro Romania Bulgaria Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina Greece Albania Moldova Kosovo Armenia Azerbaijan Russia Ukraine 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Freedom from Corruption (2013 index) Freedom from Corruption (2014 index) Source: Heritage Foundation
Governance Deficiencies: State-Owned Enterprises (1) National Electric Company (Bulgaria): Key Financial Ratios 1,60 1,40 1,20 1,00 Current ratio Quick ratio 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0,38 0,30 0,09 0,03 Liquidity ratio Debt ratio Long term debt to total assets ratio Source: CSD
Governance Deficiencies: State-Owned Enterprises (2) Bulgargaz (Bulgaria): Key Financial Ratios 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1,32 0,97 0,79 0,22 0,06 Current ratio Quick ratio Liquidity ratio Debt ratio Long term debt to total assets ratio Source: CSD
Public Procurement Source: CSD, based on Bulgarian Public Procurement Agency
The Russian Factor: Rules of Engagement Widespread corporate involvement Ownership of strategic assets and companies Involvement in large-scale energy infrastructure projects Energy import dependence Personal political and security links Opaque and secretive corporate relations Strong pressure on all governance levels Soft power
EU Involvement EU s Neighborhood Policy EU s three pillars of energy policy Competitiveness Security of energy supply Sustainable development Inconsistent policy implementation leading to: Major project completion failure Loss of the strategic focus Incoherent and fragmented regional approach Bureaucratic stalling
US Involvement US-Russia reset Official foreign policy and local representation Corporate involvement Technological leadership
Energy Security in the Black Sea Region: Possible Strategies Import diversification External technology leadership (role of US) Introduction of a EU Energy Union Regional approaches: Investment in regional gas interconnectors Restarting Nabucco via a North-South link Promotion of LNG supply from the Middle East and North Africa
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