David Arthur Chief Energy Analysis and Sustainability The Volpe Center, USDOT Hampton Roads Climate Impact Quantification Initiative Task 1 Briefing Transportation Technical Advisory Committee (TTAC) Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization 9/7/16 Alan Strasser Project Coordinator and Stakeholder Liaison Steering Committee Member, USDOT CCC Rawlings Miller Climate and Infrastructure Specialist The Volpe Center, USDOT
DOT Climate Change Center 49 USC Section 102 (g) Office of Climate Change and Environment. FAA OST Climate Council PHMSA (A) research, strategies, and actions to reduce transportation-related energy use and mitigate the effects of climate change; and (B) address the impacts of climate change on transportation systems and infrastructure. FHWA FRA Bbbb Steering Committee Core Team NHTSA MARAD FTA FMCSA
DOT s Role in Hampton Roads Past: HR Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Project (2011) HR Military Transportation Needs Study (2013) SLR and Storm Surge Impacts to Roadways in HR (2016) Currently: Participated on HR Pilot 2014-2016 Drafted DOT Quantification Study with HR Stakeholder support Ongoing: Support through FHWA Virginia Divisional Office, other modes 3
Building on Successful FHWA Pilots + FHWA currently finishing up 9 pilots studies 4
Objectives and Benefits of Quantification Initiative Collaborating with HR stakeholders to develop cost tool that provides methods for: Voluntary grantee consideration of financial impacts in infrastructure planning due to CC/severe weather Augmenting science-based implementation of the Federal Flood Risk Management Std. (EO 13690) Managing U.S. DOT facilities (EO 13653) Addresses key questions (e.g., asset management and loss of use) 5
Quantifying Exposure Public + Private/Direct + Indirect =? Rank Zip Code PRIVATE Asset (Direct) Value PRIVATE Indirect) PUBLIC Asset (Direct) PUBLIC (Indirect) 1 23456 $5,557,775,200??? 2 23322 $4,263,567,600??? 3 23464 $4,036,204,000??? 4 23452 $3,979,341,900??? 5 23454 $3,892,053,300??? 6 23451 $3,592,192,700??? 7 23435 $2,331,233,800??? *Total $ 27,652,368,500??? Public + Private (Direct and Indirect) Resiliency and repair to Base XYZ Cost of disruption and new ROWs for roads and bridges to Base XYZ Cost of disruption and new ROWs for roads and bridges into ports PDQ and tourist destinations PDQ Core Logic, Storm Surge Report, 2014
HRTPO/HRPDC Collaboration Informally during HR Pilot (2014-2016) Staff-level comments on DOT report (2016) Working meeting at HRTPO/HRPDC (July 7, 2016) HRPTPO/HRPDC and Navy presented at DOT meeting (August 25, 2016) 7
Status Received and addressed over 500 comments from about 10 agencies (federal, state, local) Incorporated feedback to address: Reorganization of report (HRTPO/HRPDC) Technical specs for bridges (e.g., FHWA, VDOT) Consistency in asset information detail Right-of-way (ROW) costs (utilities/fhwa) Floodplains 8
Findings Assets and Data Significant asset information for bridges and roads Collected and continue to receive information regarding asset sensitivities to extreme weather 9
Findings Indirect Impacts Data available for Key economic sectors in the region Critical infrastructure facilities Right-of-Way Considerations Social vulnerabilities 10
Findings Adaptation Summarizes local adaptation costs/measures: Norfolk s Coastal Resilience Strategy Flood Mitigation for City of Norfolk CITY OF NORFOLK NEIGHBORHOOD PROPOSED ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION PROJECTS ASSESSED PROPERTY VALUE IN THE WATERSHED ESTIMATED COST PROJECT COST AS % OF PROPERTY VALUE THE HAGUE PRETTY LAKE MASON CREEK Floodwall Tide gate Pump Station Berms/Closure walls Floodwall Tide Gate Pump Station Structure elevation Pump Station New storm culvert Peripheral Berms Structure elevation $1,624 M $60 M 3.7% $1,812 M $50 M 2.8% $1,604 M $30 M 1.9% TOTAL NA $5,040 M $140M 2.8% 11
SLR/Storm Surge Scenario Economic Storyline Asset Transportation Asset (Direct) Value Level of Costs of repairs flood impact (business as usual) Costs/Benefits of adaptive measures including ROWs to reduce flood impact 1 $5,557,775,200 L $ $ Economic Consequence of Event- Driven Disruption under Economic Storyline Impact on Commuters Impact on Port Access Impact on Military Access 2 $4,263,567,600 M $ $ 3 $4,036,204,000 L $ $ 4 $3,979,341,900 H $ $ $ $ $ $ 5 $3,892,053,300 L SLR/Storm $ Surge Scenario $ 6 $3,592,192,700 Economic Storyline H $ Transportation Level of $ 7 $2,331,233,800 M $ Transportation $ Economic Consequence of Event- Driven Disruption under Economic Storyline Costs/Benefits of SLR/Storm Surge Scenario Impact Economic Impact Consequence of Event- Costs of repairs adaptive measures Impact on Asset Port Driven Military Disruption under Asset Economic (Direct) ValueStoryline flood impact (business as usual) including ROWs to Commuters Access Economic Access Storyline reduce flood impact Costs/Benefits of 1 $5,557,775,200 SLR/Storm L Surge Level $ Scenario $ Impact Economic Impact Consequence of Ev of Costs of repairs adaptive measures Impact on Asset Port 2 $4,263,567,600Asset (Direct) Value flood impact (business as usual) including ROWs to M $ $ Commuters Driven Military Disruption under Economic Storyline Access reduce flood impact Economic Access Storyline 3 $4,036,204,000 1 $5,557,775,200 Costs/Benefits of L L $ $ $ $ Impact on Impact o Transportation Level of Costs of repairs adaptive measures Impact on Asset Port Military 2 $4,263,567,600Asset (Direct) 4 $3,979,341,900 M Value flood impact $ (business as usual) $ H $ $ $ including $ ROWs to $ Commuters $ Access Access reduce flood impact 5 $3,892,053,300 3 $4,036,204,000 1 L $5,557,775,200 L $ $ $ L $ $ $ 6 $3,592,192,700 4 $3,979,341,900 2 H $4,263,567,600 H $ M $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 7 $2,331,233,800 5 $3,892,053,300 3 $4,036,204,000 M L $ $ $ $ L $ $ 6 $3,592,192,700 H $ $ 4 $3,979,341,900 H $ $ 7 $2,331,233,800 5 $3,892,053,300 M L $ $ $ $ 6 $3,592,192,700 $ $ $ 12
In Progress Explore tools and resources in HR to be leveraged: Project Prioritization Tool: Economic Viability Criteria Closer review of transportation asset management Roadway User Costs Tool adapted by HR Other local transportation planning models used Examples of additional tools/resources: Labor/dock strike analysis available for port analysis IRRIS feasibility for military scenarios Customized GIS-based supply/chain models 13
Next Steps Continue to gather HR stakeholder input prior to starting Task 2 (Currently). Finalize Task 2 SOW (currently) Commence Task 2 (Fall 2016) Explore joint studies with Navy, HRTPO, and HRPDC (sec. 3) 14
Thank you for your attention! Questions and Comments? 15
Additional Slides 16
Why Hampton Roads? Vulnerable- 2 nd Only to New Orleans for SLR and storm surge Federal/Military Importance- Nation s largest concentration of federal facilities and world s largest naval station (NSN) Extensive Transport Network- High density of multi-modal transportation infrastructure Flooding for Hampton Roads and Norfolk (2008 2012)
Augments Gulf Coast 2: Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation 18
Methodology and Status Current Task (1) Developing a baseline of the transportation system : Modal assets: size, scale, geographic location, function Asset condition, structural integrity, asset vulnerabilities and exposure Summary of HR studies on exposure, impact, adaptation, indirect consequences Tools and resources for economic quantification Future Tasks (9/16-8/31/17) Task 2: Determining a methodology for estimating future costs using different scenarios and time scales Task 3: Small-scale pilot analysis using different scenarios and time scales Task 4: Region-scale using different scenarios and time scales 19
Outreach and Collaboration Intensive consultations with HR Pilot Project (Pilot) over a two-year period (20 meetings). Supports HR Pilot (2015): Planning activities need to address the c/b of proposed actions to aid in decision making. Presented at the three HR forums 20
Pathways Forward Pathway 1: Economic impact analysis of direct/indirect consequences associated with coastal flooding affecting transportation facilities. Engage VDOT/HRPTO/Local Stakeholders to test appropriate and robust economic methodologies that identify direct economic costs, economic drivers (e.g., tourism) and indirect consequences Consider potential adaptive strategies to reduce economic costs associated with coastal flooding. Pathway 2: Pathway 1 + Incorporating the findings into existing transportation asset management system Identify entry points to which the economic quantification study can link into the existing transportation asset management (TAM) system Such an analysis allows for potentially actionable and implementable results such as providing costeffective planning for developing an action plan to reduce climate-related risks. 21
Inundation Scenario Without Inundation With Inundation Scenario 22
Tunnel Add Economic Storyline Bridge Example Economic Storylines: - Port Activities - Peak Season - Non Peak Season - Military Activities: - Engagement - Non-engagement Bridge Bridge Highway PORT 23