DANU Strategic Forecasting Group June 9th 2016!!!!!!!!!!!!External Analysis on Mali By Johnathon Ricker & Nikolas Christodoulides Mali faces many challenges due to the increasing effects of climate change. Most noticeably is the result of changes in rainfall and water levels throughout the different seasons. Mali experiences different climates throughout the regions of the state and during different times of the year. From February to June is it subtropical to arid, hot and dry. June to November it is rainy, humid and mild. November to February it is cool and dry. The northern region of Mali experiences far less rainfall than the southern region, where heavy downpours can occur between the months of June to October. In the central part of Mali, the country receives most of its rainfall between the months of June and August. The annual rainfall measures accumulate to around 1,400 mm in the south, 1,120 mm in the central, and 127 mm in the north. Mali is also host to the Niger River and the Niger River Inland Delta, which constitutes one of the largest wetlands in the world and rests within the Sahelian Zone of Mali. It supports livestock, agriculture and fisheries. About 6 million cows, sheep, and goats graze there every year for almost 8 months at a time. The agricultural production during the wet years can spread around 100,000 hectares in the floodplains and 30,000 hectares in the areas further developed by the government. The climate risks in regards to water levels include extreme flooding and severe droughts. These events can cause disastrous repercussions for the Malian people and their way of life. Heavy rainfall can cause river flooding, flash floods, and landslides which can ruin farming infrastructure, destroy agricultural yields, displace population, and leave others dead. 1
The high water levels flood fields and inhibit farmers from producing sustainable levels of agricultural output. Thousands of homes and farms are destroyed during times of flooding. Much of the economy is based off of agriculture and fishing, thus consistent water levels are a vital ingredient to a successful economy. Only seven percent of 43.7 million arable hectares of land is currently cultivated and 14 percent of 2.2 million potential irrigable hectares are currently irrigated. Every hectare is important to the economy and there is little room for output error. For those who are forced to leave their homes, they are often hosted in schools. When schools are used to host refugees, it decreases its ability to operate and provide an education to students. The repercussions are not isolated to one aspect of the economy. Flooding can further contaminate potable water supplies with water borne diseases. Many Malians become ill when they ingest water that contains microscopic water fleas which have absorbed Guinea Worm larvae. Currently, over 4,500 children die every year from diarrhea caused by unsafe water and poor sanitation in Mali. Roughly 12 million people do not have access to adequate sanitation in Mali. Each day much valuable time, which could be spent working or studying, is allocated to the retrieval of water, often many kilometers from their homes. The United Nation reports that due to poor infrastructure, Mali only uses 0.2 percent of its potential water resources. Clean water access to people is 74% in urban areas and 61% in rural. Of the country s 60 cubic km of renewable water resources, 97% is used for farming and 1% is used for industrial purposes. Water levels in Mali also affect the state s hydro power electricity output. Currently, 80% of Mali's electricity is generated from hydro-power, and this is affected by dry years, where production can be reduced by up to 20%. This suggests that climate change may cause problems for the generation of hydro-electricity, and that the possibility of greater numbers of years with lower electricity production should be taken into account. Furthermore, the construction of the hydro dams has threatened flood recession agriculture, multiplying the negative effects of drought years. Climate change will continue to create more severe weather conditions leading to floods and droughts. Either extremes will hurt current economic activity, decrease regional stability, increase wealth inequality, stagnate literacy rates, increase international aid, and allow for an environment where corruption and extremist activities can increase. Cotton and Soil Degradation in Mali: Cotton and livestock account for 75-80% of Mali s annual exports. Despite Mali s continuing official complaints at the World Trade Organization that native cotton producers are facing economic extinction because of subsidies paid to their Europeans and Americans counterparts which thus lower cotton s world prices, things have not changed. 2
Malian economy s resuscitation is a grim scenario because Mali is left facing a double edge sword. This is because despite Mali s future targets of producing even more cotton as a measure of reviving a faded economy, this is simply a short term solution. Producing more cotton at times that cotton s production is profitable will only allow Mali to enjoy the short-term mirage of an economic boost. Mali s relationship with cotton started forcefully when Mali was a French colony. Malian farmers tried to resist the colonial government attempts to force cotton production upon them because it was not profitable at the time and also because if they increased their cotton production, then they would have to reduce the production of rice, millet and sorghum which were their basic food intakes. Colonial external interests, especially the rivalry between American cotton producers and the French, eventually led to the establishment of the Office du Niger by the 1930s, which instituted a system of forced labour and taxation that obliged Malian farmers to participate in the production of cotton for export. First of all, the Malian economy faces a significant threat from basing solely all its cards upon agriculture because of the rising temperatures in the region that make droughts occur more frequently while also annual rainfall rates decrease to dangerously low levels. Extreme weather phenomenon s such as droughts and floods are taking place a lot more frequently than in the past years and these endanger Malian s farmers production and subsequent financial profitability. The production of cotton has also some long-term environmental consequences that almost nobody considers taking into serious account. Cotton is mostly grown in monoculture (monoculture is the agricultural practice of producing or growing a single crop, plant, or livestock species, variety, or breed in a field or farming system at a time) and is a very pesticide-intensive crop. Although it is only grown on 2.5% of the world s agricultural land, it consumes 6.8% of all herbicides and 16% of all the insecticides used worldwide. Pesticides are subsequently washed out of soils, polluting rivers and groundwater resources while pests in which pesticides are used against, develop resistance thus making their use irrelevant. Pesticides are also considered as a major factor in eliminating biodiversity in an ecosystem because usually they also kill a lot of other pests that are not considered enemies of the crops in the agricultural sector. This leads to a vicious disruption of the food chain of the ecosystem in which the pesticides are used in. Cotton production also requires large amounts of water for irrigation. The diversion of huge quantities of water for irrigation purposes in combination with the lack of appropriate infrastructure for these purposes leads to significant portions of the water getting lost in the process of transfer. For a country like Mali that is facing scarcity problems with water, this issue should not be neglected. It is also proved that extensive use of irrigation systems causes soil salinisation, especially in dry areas. 3
Further degradation of soil fertility is increased not only by the salinisation of soil but also from the use of industrial fertilisers. Nitrates which is a major component of these fertilisers and which end ups in the soil is transformed into nitrous oxide (also known as laughing gas ) which is 300 times more destructive than carbon dioxide in terms of global warming. All the above factors reveal that the Malian economy s focus on agriculture led to a short-term economic dead-end. Rising temperatures in the region, frequent droughts, international American and European cotton subsidies and the extensive use of irrigation systems, industrial fertilisers combine into a recipe that guarantees a grim future for the country s economy. One of the elementary lessons that any economist is given at any business school is the saying don t put all the eggs in one basket. Despite all historical efforts that were taken for guiding Mali s agricultural sector into becoming a monoculture it is time for the Malian government to take seriously the diversification of their country s economy. As it has also been discussed in other research papers, Mali has the potential but not the ability to strengthen and diversify its economy. 4
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