Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability
2013 Southeast Climate Consortium All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes Printed on recycled, acid-free paper Citation: Keywords: climate impacts, climate modeling, climate variability, coastal, drought, education, electric intrusion, sea level rise, silviculture, social vulnerability, Southeast, storm surge, tropical Tribal Government or Non-governmental entity. Front Cover Images:
About This Series This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the Third National and Congress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates - - input reports highlighting past climate trends, projected climate change, and impacts ing this technical input. The lead authors for related chapters in the Third NCA report, - -. Printed copies are avail-
Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability EDITORS Keith T. Ingram (University of Florida) Kirstin Dow (University of South Carolina) Lynne Carter (Louisiana State University) Julie Anderson (Louisiana State University) EDITORIAL ASSISTANCE Eleanor K. Sommer (Gainesville, Florida)
Acknowledgements Editor's Note: Access to color maps and graphs for this document are avail- Disclaimer: ix
Contents Acknowledgements ix CHAPTER 1 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 Diversity and Vulnerabilities 3 1.2 Time-scales of Interest to Southeast Decision Makers 5 1.3 Future Scenarios 5 1.4 Process for Developing this Book 6 1.5 Report Organization 7 1.6 References 7 CHAPTER 2 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST USA: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE 8 2.1 General Description 9 2.2 Extreme Events 14 2.3 Trends 18 2.4 Future Projections 26 2.5 References 36 CHAPTER 3 HUMAN HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 43 3.1 Climate Change and Human Health 44 3.2 Heat and Cold 45 3.3 Air Quality Effects on Respiratory and Airway Diseases 46 3.4 Storms, Extreme Weather, and Sea Level Rise 47 3.5 Harmful Algal Blooms and Marine Toxins 48 3.6 Vector-borne and Zoonotic Disease 51 3.7 Water Quality and Quantity 52 3.8 Human Migration and Displacement and Healthcare Disruption 54 3.9 References 55 CHAPTER 4 ENERGY PRODUCTION, USE, AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 62 4.1 Status and Outlook for Energy Production and Use in the Southeast 63 4.2 Impact of Climate Change on Energy Supply and Demand in the Southeast 74 4.3 Key Issues and Uncertainties 81 4.4 References 82
CHAPTER 5 CLIMATE INTERACTIONS WITH THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 86 5.1 Background 87 5.2 Air Quality 89 5.3 The Urban Heat Island Effect 90 5.4 Effects on Precipitation 92 5.5 Effects on the Wild Land-Urban Interface (WUI) 96 5.6 Vulnerability and Risks to Tourism 97 5.7 Impacts on Energy, Poverty, and Socioeconomic Vulnerability 99 5.8 Impacts on National Security 101 5.9 Impacts on Urban Migration 101 5.10 Impacts on Coastal Environments 102 5.11 Summary of Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment 102 5.12 References 103 CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRANSPORTATION IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 109 6.1 Evaluation of Southeast Transportation Systems 110 6.2 Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure 111 6.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Systems 112 6.4 Conclusions 124 6.5 References 126 CHAPTER 7 AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 128 7.1 Agriculture in the Southeast USA 130 7.2 Climate Sensitivities and Vulnerabilities 133 7.3 Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in the Southeast USA 143 7.4 Assessment and Research Needs 151 7.5 References 155 CHAPTER 8 FORESTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 165 8.1 Historical Perspective 166 8.2 Southeastern Forest Types 167 8.3 Changes in Forest Type Across the South 172 8.4 Current and Projected Forest Stresses 173 8.5 Ecosystem Services 177 8.6 Adaptation and Mitigation Options 180 8.7 Conclusions 183 8.8 References 183
CHAPTER 9 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 190 9.1 Background 191 9.2 Climate Change Effects 193 9.3 Complicating Factors 200 9.4 Adaptation and Mitigation 201 9.5 Research Needs 203 9.6 References 204 CHAPTER 10 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 210 10.1 Water Resources in the Southeast 212 10.2 Key Constraints to Water Resources in the Southeast 212 10.3 Historical Climate Trends 215 10.4 Uncertainty in Predicting Future Climate and Hydrologic Impacts 215 10.5 Water Resources Impacts of Climate Change 216 10.6 Mitigation and Adaptation Options 229 10.7 References 230 CHAPTER 11 THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS OF THE SOUTHEAST USA 237 11.1 Background 240 11.2 Southeastern Freshwater Aquatic Ecosystems 240 11.3 Southeastern Savannas 244 11.4 Southeastern Freshwater Marshes and Swamps 246 11.5 Southeastern Tidal Marshes and Swamps 250 11.6 Coral Reefs of the Southeast USA 254 11.7 Summary 257 11.8 References 259 CHAPTER 12 MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 271 12.1 Definitions 272 12.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks in the Southeast 273 12.3 GHG Emission Reduction Activities 278 12.4 Research Needs and Uncertainties 290 12.5 References 291
CHAPTER 13 CLIMATE ADAPTATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 295 13.1 Definition of Adaptation 297 13.2 Major Stresses on the Southeast 299 13.3 Adaptation in the Southeast 302 13.4 Supporting Adaptive Capacity 314 13.5 Summary 316 13.6 References 316 CHAPTER 14 SOUTHEAST USA REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTENSION, OUTREACH, EDUCATION, AND TRAINING 321 14.1 Why Climate Education Is an Essential Part of Climate Science 323 14.2 A Starting Point for Climate Education: Climate versus Weather 324 14.3 Context for Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 325 14.4 Delivery Methods 333 14.5 Program Integration 334 14.6 Barriers to Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Regarding Climate Change 335 14.7 Ongoing Education, Outreach, Extension, and Training Programs 335 14.8 Conclusions 339 14.9 References 339