Though delayed, the harvest of Primera crops will improve food security across the country KEY MESSAGES The late start of the 2016 rainy season caused damage to crops planted with the first rains in April, and delayed the planting of Primera crops in Dry Corridor areas in the east and west. This will delay harvests in these areas by approximately a month. Forecasts indicate near-average cumulative rainfall in the second part of the rainy season, with a 70 percent likelihood of a shift to La Niña conditions in the three-month period from August through October. Figure 1. Estimated food security outcomes for June 2016 Very poor households in the Temperate Western Highlands will continue to resort to negative strategies to cope with shortfalls in food and income, and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through October, when the seasonal decline in prices and improvement Source: FEWS NET in income-earning opportunities will strengthen their purchasing power. The annual harvest of staple crops in December This map shows relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for 2016/January 2017 will help improve food availability and emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. For more on this scale, visit: temporarily reduce household reliance on income for the www.fews.net/foodinsecurityscale. purchasing of staple foods. These areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October through at least January 2017, with pockets of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Very poor households in the eastern part of the country will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September due to their complete dependence on market purchases after the losses during both growing seasons in 2015 and with their limited employment options for the past few months. Some municipalities in Chiquimula, Baja Verapaz, Jalapa, and Jutiapa will receive assistance from the WFP and Catholic Relief Services (CRS) in the form of food and/or cash, mitigating food security outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). The harvest of Primera crops in August/September and the beginning of the high-demand period for unskilled labor will improve household food availability and food access at least through January 2017, improving these areas to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET GUATEMALA fews.guatemala@fews.net www.fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current situation Figure 2. Projected food security outcomes for June through September 2016 Poor households in the Dry Corridor, who are primarily small-scale farmers, are currently facing the consequences of consecutive years of heavy losses of staple crops, after three straight years during which cumulative rainfall was both below average and below the estimated water requirement for the growing of maize (700 mm) (Figure 4). Furthermore, income-generating opportunities in the coffee sector have been below normal during the same period, due to the coffee rust outbreak and the decline in international coffee prices during the 2015/2016 season. Due to these factors, the poorest households in these areas began the current lean season in January, with fewer than usual coping options. They are currently approaching the most critical point of the lean season. Very poor households currently have no staple food reserves from own production, and are completely dependent on market purchases in cash or on credit as their sole source of food. The seasonal decline in income-generating opportunities is weakening household purchasing power. May 2016 prices for white maize were generally similar to the previous month and close to the five-year average, due to the adequate domestic market supplies from stored stocks of grain from recent harvests in March/April in northern areas of the country, particularly southern Petén, the Northern Transversal Strip, and Izabal. There are also large market supplies of maize from Mexico, particularly in the west. However, even with these sources of supply, the increased demand from subsistence households after last year s losses has driven prices up slightly. Producer and wholesale prices for black beans are up from the previous month, last year, and the five-year average, after the losses of Postrera crops in surplus eastern areas at the end of 2015 and the hoarding tactics of certain private traders in recent months. For example, in May the producer price of black beans in the eastern region was GTQ 380, 38.18 percent higher than in May 2015. Source: FEWS NET Figure 3. Projected food security outcomes for October 2016 through January 2017 Source: FEWS NET These maps show relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for emergency decision-making. They do not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. For more on this scale, visit: www.fews.net/foodinsecurityscale. The start of the rainy season was marked by late, light, erratic rainfall, particularly in central and northern areas of the country (Figure 5). Rainfall increased beginning in the first week of June, with cumulative totals as of June 20 th above 40 percent. However this has not been sufficient to compensate for the accrued soil moisture deficit since April. This heavier rainfall allowed for planting and the beginning of the Primera growing season, with a delay of more than a month in certain areas. According to observations during a field visit conducted by FEWS NET at the end of May, there were near-total losses of staple crops that were planted by subsistence farmers in Dry Corridor areas in the western part of the country with the first rains in April, in line with normal seasonal crop planting schedules. 2
Assumptions Climate and ENSO conditions: According to the mid-june report by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), there was a shift from El Niño to neutral conditions during the month of May 2016. There is an elevated probability of 70 percent that there will be a transition to La Niña conditions in the three-month period from August through October, lasting at least through the end of the outlook period (January 2017). Figure 4. Cumulative rainfall totals by year for the Primera growing season (May 1 st through August 31 st ) in the Dry Corridor of Guatemala, compared with the minimum requirement of 700 mm for maize crops Canícula and second part of the rainy season: According to INSIVUMEH (the Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology Institute), the canícula (the break in the rains) will begin sometime between July 8 th and July 15 th, with a near-average duration and severity. As for the second part of the rainy season, based on its analysis of rainfall patterns in previous years in which there was a transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions, INSIVUMEH indicates that there is a likelihood for aboveaverage rainfall beginning in August/September, continuing into the first half of November, with the rainy season expected to end later than usual. Temperature forecasts show a gradual normalization in temperatures over the remainder of the year. Staple production for the Primera growing season: Based on forecasts for a shorter and less severe canícula than during the last two years, and an increase in rainfall beginning in July, Primera harvests will likely be nearaverage in most areas of the country, except in parts of the western Dry Corridor, where there are already reports of crop losses from the poor distribution of rainfall at the beginning of the growing season. This erratic rainfall pattern has also delayed planting in these areas, as well as in the east, which will delay the harvest by one to one and a half months. Source: UCSB, USGS, FEWS NET Figure 5. Maximum number of consecutive days without rain in May 2016 Staple grain production for the Postrera season: With the Source: USGS/FEWS NET expected above-normal levels of rainfall in the second part of the rainy season and based on the fact that the main crop grown during this season is beans, which are more sensitive to moisture, Postrera harvests are likely to be average to below-average. Staple grain supplies and prices: Prices for staples (maize and black beans) are expected to follow normal seasonal price trends through the month of August. Prices for white maize will start to rise as of July, when market supplies will be coming from stored stocks of grain from harvests in the northern part of the country at the beginning of the year. Based on the pattern in previous years, there will be a steady flow of imports from Mexico. Black bean prices will stabilize after the slight rise reported in May with expected imports from China, Mexico, and Argentina. The harvest of Primera crops in surplus areas will trigger a seasonal decline in maize prices through the month of 3
November, which will be followed by a slight rise in January. Bean prices, on the other hand, will come down in September before starting to climb until the harvest of Postrera crops in December and January. Sources of income: Demand for agricultural wage labor will remain at a seasonal low until October, with only sporadic, short-term work opportunities at low rates for day laborers in farming maize and beans, as well as maintenance work for other crops. There is not expected to be any major change in demand for casual labor between now and October, though there could be a growing labor pool with the larger numbers of households affected by last year s drought in need of income to purchase food supplies. These dynamics will heighten competition for available jobs, which could weaken the bargaining power of day laborers in wage negotiations, as has been the case in similar years. The beginning of the harvest season for agroindustrial crops such as coffee, sugar cane, tobacco, and melons will boost demand for labor for the remainder of the outlook period. The damage to coffee crops from the dry conditions and rust infestation and the continued low selling prices of coffee are expected to reduce the size of the coffee harvest and, thus, the number of day laborers hired and the final pay of coffee harvesters. Emergency assistance: The WFP is planning to deliver food and cash assistance to 23,600 households in selected municipalities in Chiquimula, Baja Verapaz, and Jutiapa, in the eastern region, through the month of September 2016. There will also be deliveries of food and cash assistance to households in certain municipalities in Huehuetenango and Quiché through September 2016. CRS, for its part, has plans for the delivery of food assistance to 1,500 households in five municipalities in Jalapa through at least the month of October. With no provisions for emergency food assistance in other parts of the country during the outlook period, there could be a further deterioration in food security outcomes of unassisted households. Most likely food security outcomes There will be a steady seasonal deterioration in food security conditions for the country s poorest households until the harvest of Primera crops in August/September in most parts of the country and in November/December in western altiplano areas, at which point their food availability will improve with the replenishment of their food reserves and improved income-generating opportunities. The harvest of Postrera crops will improve bean availability for households and on domestic markets. Since the annual lean season will not end until August with the harvest of Primera crops, households will be resorting to market purchase as their main source of food at a time when their incomes are at yearly lows and prices are on the rise, which will curtail their food access. However, with this being the norm at this time of year and with no expected major shocks prior to the anticipated large improvement in conditions as of September with the beginning of the harvest and better employment opportunities, most areas of the country will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity throughout the outlook period from June 2016 through January 2017. Households in the east and in temperate western altiplano areas within the Dry Corridor who were affected by the 2015 drought and the resulting heavy losses of their annual staple crops, as well as households of small farmers and day laborers highly dependent on the coffee sector, will be the exception to the above. These households have suffered large shortfalls in their crop production and incomes since 2013, forcing them to resort to negative strategies that have significantly reduced their current coping options and resilience. With their lower incomes, particularly from coffee-related activities, and an atypical sustained dependence on market purchase for their food supplies, these households have reported reduced dietary diversity and number of daily meals, and have had to resort to atypical patterns of migration in terms of their destinations and the number of migrants. Thus, the food security situation in areas scheduled to receive emergency assistance (in the form of food and/or cash) such as certain municipalities in the eastern and western regions of the country will be classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) through September. Without assistance, other parts of these areas will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the month of September. The ensuing harvests for the Primera and Postrera growing seasons and the beginning of the high-demand period for agricultural labor will help mitigate food insecurity to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least January 2017. 4
AREAS OF CONCERN Small coffee growers and day laborers dependent on coffee in temperate areas of Quiché, Huehuetenango, and Totonicapán. Current situation Status of staple crops: Households in this region have only a single growing season for staple crops (maize and beans), which generally runs from April/May through November/December. During the field visit conducted by FEWS NET at the beginning of June 2016, a number of farmers reported planting crops in April with seeds from the 2014 harvest after the rainfall at the end of March, but the majority of these crops were severely wilted after more than a month without any rain. Moreover, many farmers decided against planting any crops in May so as not to risk any further losses of their investments in inputs and labor after three consecutive years of extremely low crop yields. With the erratic distribution of rainfall and cumulative deficits in May, conditions in many areas did not allow for the planting of crops until the middle of June. Once the rains began, farmers finally decided to plant their fields nearly a month and a half behind schedule. According to international models, the El Niño event has practically died out, giving way to neutral conditions. This transition has helped foster increased rainfall activity since the beginning of June, which was expected to continue through the end of the month, suggesting that crops would be in Growth Stage I by that time. Staple grain prices: There were heavy losses of 2015 crops, exceeding 75 percent in the worst drought-stricken areas. This left households with very few if any reserves and dependent on market purchases in 2016. According to the information supplied by households interviewed during the field visit by FEWS NET, maize prices have stayed within normal ranges (around GTQ 130/quintal), while bean prices are up by 100 percent from 2014, at around GTQ 6-8/pound. Monitored prices in the departmental capital of Huehuetenango have been stable, but the western region as a whole has the highest prices compared with other parts of the country. Moreover, both maize and bean prices are up from last year. Sources of income: Employment opportunities are at a seasonal low and, with the delay in the planting of staple crops or loss of these crops, there has been a lower than usual demand for labor, with a larger pool of day laborers due to the need of households affected by the failure of 2015 crops to earn extra income. Nutritional situation: According to data collected as part of the field study by FEWS NET, there have been no reported increases in the number of cases of acute malnutrition in children under five years of age in any of the health districts visited. However, data compiled by the Ministry of Public Health and Social Welfare shows Huehuetenango department with the second steepest rise in acute malnutrition cases. In addition to the poor access to healthcare and shortage of supplies in clinics, after several consecutive years of crop losses and lower incomes and with the deterioration in food consumption and household coping options, it is only reasonable to assume that this rise could be caused, at least in part, by food insecurity. There is no data to indicate a rise in mortality rates due to acute malnutrition, although many previously reported cases of deaths across the country involved children in this region. Food assistance: There will be continuing deliveries of food and cash assistance to selected municipalities in Huehuetenango and Quiché through the month of September. However, as far as the rest of the region is concerned, there are no ongoing emergency assistance programs at this time or scheduled for the next eight months. Food consumption and livelihoods: Households are reporting a decline in the quantity and quality of their food intake, with some households eating only twice a day. Those still eating three meals a day are doing so at the cost of cutting their spending on other basic needs that, in many cases, are not being met. In addition, they have had to resort to coping strategies, including the ramping up of their woodcutting activities and sales of firewood and atypical migration to urban areas such as Guatemala City and more distant destinations to work in informal jobs as stocking clerks in markets or warehouses, helpers in small shops, etc. Availability of water: The levels of water sources are unduly low and, in many cases, are affecting water access for human consumption, either by making it necessary to haul water over longer distances or through the rationing of piped water supplies to residential consumers. 5
Assumptions The outlook for this region is based on the following assumptions, in addition to the nationwide assumptions outlined earlier in the report: The flow of remittances is expected to increase, as has been the case for the past several months. While this will not directly affect very poor households, it will help keep demand for labor in construction activities at nearaverage levels, serving as a source of employment. With the establishment of the agricultural season, an improvement in labor opportunities is expected, as compared with the employment situation prior to the month of June. However, given reports of total losses of crops from damage in their early developmental stages, labor demand will remain below average. In addition, the rainfall deficit at the beginning of the year and the increase in the prevalence of coffee rust with the increased rainfall activity in the second part of the year will likely reduce the volume of the coffee harvest for 2016/2017, resulting in the hiring of fewer day laborers and reducing their pay due to the smaller size and lighter weight of the coffee beans. Farmers planting crops in April, which they subsequently lost, were unable to replant their fields with the June rains for lack of seeds and the financial means with which to purchase any more. The harvest in this area will begin a month to a month and a half late, in December/January. This will oblige households to continue market purchases at the end of the year, when they normally rely on supplies from their own production. With the establishment of the rainy season, there will be a growing availability of wild plant foods during the outlook period. However, supplies are not expected to be any larger than usual, which will prevent households from improving their diets by increasing their consumption of these foods. Most likely food security outcomes Very poor households in the arid belt of livelihood zone 5 will be forced to continue to resort to unsustainable or negative coping strategies in order to eat. Even so, these households will not be able to meet all basic food and non-food needs, and are likely to experience deteriorating dietary quality and quantity. Some households have already begun to shift from farming-based livelihoods to informal employment. Parts of this region inhabited by drought-stricken households and households affected by the coffee rust outbreak will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September, with the exception of selected municipalities in Huehuetenango and Quiché scheduled to receive emergency food assistance, where food security outcomes will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). There is expected to be a slight improvement as of October, when households will have better employment options with the beginning of the high-demand period for farm labor and, later on, with the harvest in January. Households are also expected to rely mainly on their regular sources of income during this period. Thus, this area is expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October until at least January, with pockets of households with less access to markets and sources of employment remaining in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The nutritional situation of children under five years of age is expected to steadily deteriorate through January, until the beginning of the harvest. It is not expected that the situation will improve in October despite an anticipated improvement in food consumption, due to seasonal migration of entire households to work on coffee plantations where there is less access to health care services and worse living conditions as compared to their permanent homes, weakening child health and nutritional outcomes. No major changes in mortality rates are expected during the outlook period. 6
Coffee-dependent day laborers in Zacapa, Chiquimula, Baja Verapaz, El Progreso, Jutiapa, northern Santa Rosa, and lower-elevation areas of Jalapa. Current situation Status of crops: The planting of maize and beans for the Primera season generally begins in the first half of May. However, with the late start of the rains, households did not start planting crops until the last week of May and the first week of June, when there was reportedly sufficient rainfall, as forecast by INSIVUMEH. Households in the area have reported good soil moisture in the first dekad of June. Prices for staple foods: In April, prices for white maize on major retail markets in the eastern region remained stable. The price on the reference market in Chiquimula, for example, was GTQ 1.42/pound. In contrast, black beans were selling for GTQ 4.33/pound in April, which was 15.5 percent more than last year and 12 percent above the five-year average. Producer prices monitored by the FAO are up from last year by 12 percent in the case of maize and 38 percent in the case of beans, whose price was also 11.63 percent above the five-year average. According to the Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food (MAGA), there are normal market supplies of white maize, bolstered by imports from Mexico and trade flows from northern areas of the country where there are stored stocks of maize from recent harvests. Bean supplies are tightening with the end of the harvest, though markets are getting shipments of stored bean stocks from Petén, Jutiapa, Santa Rosa, and Chiquimula departments. This same source is also reporting imports of black beans from China and Mexico, which are improving supplies and could help curb the speculation by middlemen. Sources of income: Employment options for income-generation are limited at this time of year. Some households have the option of migrating to Petén, Alta Verapaz, and Izabal to work on African palm oil plantations and in livestock-raising operations, though there is not too much demand for labor in these activities. There is also the option of finding low-paying work in pre-planting and crop planting activities, though the amount of income earned from these activities is minimal. According to data supplied by ANACAFE, coffee plantations in this area are showing signs of water stress due to the lack of rain in this part of the country, reflected in the dried leaves and berries of coffee plants. Food assistance: The WFP has scheduled deliveries of assistance (food rations plus cash) to some 23,600 households in selected municipalities in Chiquimula, Baja Verapaz, and Jutiapa through the month of September. CRS is planning to provide assistance to 1,500 households in five municipalities in Jalapa through at least the month of October. There are no plans for the delivery of food assistance to any other municipalities in this area or for an extension of ongoing assistance programs. Nutritional situation: The Ministry of Public Health and Social Welfare (MSPAS) measures the state of nutrition by the number of reported cases of acute malnutrition detected by health personnel. However, this data refers only to patients coming into health care facilities and does not include active screening data. Thus, the extent of underreporting could well be such as to undermine the reliability of this data, particularly since the cancelation of the Coverage Extension Program. Even so, there has been an increase in the number of cases of acute malnutrition reported in certain departments in this region, including Zacapa and Chiquimula. There is also survey data from 2015, when crop losses were similar to this year s. The SMART survey conducted in March 2015 indicated global acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) prevalences based on weight-for-height z-scores of 3.1 percent (1.7-5.6) and 0.3 percent (0.0-2.0), respectively. According to data collected by ACF (Action Against Hunger) in that same year based on mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurements, 5.7 percent of children in the total sample (579 children under five years of age) were suffering from moderate acute malnutrition and 15 percent were at risk for acute malnutrition. Food consumption and livelihoods: With no food reserves, households in this area are dependent on market purchases using income from limited labor opportunities, and have been experiencing difficulty in meeting their food needs for months in terms of both the quantity and quality of their food consumption, with their diets limited primarily to maize (tortillas). There has been an increased flow of migration to the capital and departmental seats of government in recent months. Household members who had never previously engaged in migration are now doing so and regular migrants are now extending their stays and heading to other and/or more distant areas to look for work. Availability of water: The levels of water sources are unduly low and, in many cases, are affecting water access for human consumption, either by making it necessary to haul water over longer distances or through the rationing of piped water supplies to residential consumers. 7
Assumptions The outlook for this region is based on the following assumptions, in addition to the nationwide assumptions outlined earlier in the report: Primera maize and bean crops will develop normally until the harvest at the end of September and the beginning of October, approximately one month later than usual. This delay will prevent farmers normally planting maize crops for the Postrera growing season from doing so, since they need more time to mature. Though not the main Postrera crop, some farmers are in the habit of planting small areas with maize. There will be a near-normal supply of farm work for day laborers, whose main sources of employment are land preparation and crop maintenance work and harvests of Primera crops and other cash crops such as tomatoes, chili peppers, and melons. There will be normal rates of employment in crop maintenance work on coffee plantations. By September, coffee plants previously suffering from water stress could be affected by fungal diseases and the flare-up in coffee rust disease with the excessive rainfall activity, reducing yields and, as a result, the supply of work for day laborers in the coffee harvest. Excessive rainfall during the early developmental stages of bean crops can drown bean plants, and too much moisture during Growth Stage I can cause fungal diseases and mosaic disease, translating into the loss of over 50 percent of bean crops compared with the average. In such a case, the resulting low crop yields will leave day laborers without even the usual few job opportunities afforded by the bean harvest (picking and threshing the beans). Most likely food security outcomes During the first four months of the outlook period, between June and September 2016, very poor households in livelihood zones 7 and 8 will continue experiencing below-normal food consumption. Even the expected harvest of Primera bean crops at the end of September will not significantly change the food consumption scenario, since the main crop for this growing season is maize. Part of the bean harvest will be used for consumption and the remainder will be used to generate income for the repayment of debts and the purchasing of inputs for Postrera crops. Accordingly, there will be continuing purchases of maize for household consumption, with limited access to cash income and increasingly tight credit. Current deficits in the quantity and quality of food consumption are expected to continue. More household members are reportedly engaging in labor migration and migrants are heading to more distant destinations as a way to generate extra income. However, not all households are able to avail themselves of this option, which involves extra expenses. Very poor households are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during this period. Household recieving external assistance from WFP and other donors are the exception, and are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) for the duration of the assistance programs. From October through at least January, food consumption will improve, with the harvests of Primera maize and Postrera bean crops which, though below average, could meet household consumption needs for one or two months. The expected below-normal demand for labor for the coffee harvest and stable demand for labor in farming activities during this peakdemand period for unskilled labor will help enable households to earn enough income to purchase food supplies for a few months. There will be continuing atypical patterns of migration by local households as a source of income. Accordingly, this area is expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with pockets of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), particularly those with less access to markets and sources of employment. The prevalence of acute malnutrition among children under five years of age is expected to increase until the harvest of Primera crops at the end of September, but is not expected to surpass 10 percent. This rise is partially attributable to normal seasonal factors, but GAM prevalence will likely be higher than last year, which was already a difficult year. Mortality rates due to malnutrition are not expected to change. 8
EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK Table 1. Possible events in the next eight months that could change the most likely scenario Area Event Impact on food security outcomes Dry Corridor Longer and/or more severe Possible damage to crops in Growth Stage I in the west and to crops in the canícula than predicted flowering stage in the east, resulting in below-average crop yields East and West East and West Cumulative rainfall well above average during the second part of the rainy season Delivery of food assistance for additional months and in municipalities not covered Heavy downpours could trigger landslides and crop diseases causing damage to maize and bean crops, affecting the single harvest in the west and crop production for the Postrera growing season in the east Improvement in food availability for recipient households, positively affecting food security outcomes ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes over an eight-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios predicting food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario. 9