Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategies 2011 ITE Quad Conference April 18 19, 2011, Embassy Suites; Lynnwood, WA Victor L. Sl Salemann, PE Senior Associate David Evans and Associates Bellevue, WA
US GHG Emissions
World GHG Emissions
One Ton of CO2
Why Care about GHG Modeling? Desire to understand VMT change with and without City Center Future alternative revenue sources for transportation Consistency with local and regional transportation planning policy Consistency with future green house gas emission policy
Lynnwood Vicinity Lynnwood
Lynnwood City Limits
Lynnwood City Center ITE Quad Conference
City Center Concept Three Districts West End Residential Core Office and Retail North End Office and Retail Mixed Use (9.1 Million Sqft) 1.5 Million Sqft Retail 4.5 Million Sqft commercial and office 3,000 residential dwelling units 20 Year Plan Source: City Center Sub-Area Plan, City of Lynnwood, June 2010
City Center Roadway Improvements New street grid system in Core Area 7 lane Road on 196 th St SW and 44 th Ave W 5 Lane Road on 200 th St SW Adding New Signals and Pockets at Intersections 194 th St Pl SW Extension Source: City Center Street Master Plan, City of Lynnwood, 2009
Two Scenarios Tested Base Scenario: 9.1 Million Sqft mixed use land use Peanut butter spread outside the City Center but within Snohomish County No City Center Grid System No new road and intersection improvements around City Center Build Scenario: 9.1 Million Sqft mixed use development located in City Center area City Center Grid GidSystem New roadway and intersection improvements around City Center
Lynnwood Travel Demand Model King and Snohomish Counties Included City-wide
No Build Trip Distribution
With City Center Trip Distribution
No Build 196 th St Flow Bundle
With City Center 196 th St Flow Bundle
GHG Emissions Analysis Vehicle Miles of Travel How many Trips? V = Vehicles Hog Long are the Trips? M = Miles Greenhouse Gas Emissions Total VMT by Vehicle Fuel type and consumption by Vehicle Emissions based on fuel consumption (delay ignored)
VMT Modeling Flow Chart
City Center Subarea VMT City Center: 2,717 or 28% PM Peak Hour VMT Increase Snohomish County Lynnwood King County
City of Lynnwood VMT Lynnwood Except City Center: 3,870 or 3.6% PM Peak Hour VMT Increase Snohomish County Lynnwood King County
Sub Regional VMT Outside Lynnwood and City Center: 8,900 or 0.6% PM Peak Hour VMT Decrease Snohomish County Lynnwood King County
Regional VMT Entire Region: 2,312 or 0.1% PM Peak Hour VMT Decrease Snohomish County Lynnwood King County
PM Peak Hour Alternative Mode VMT Alternative Mode Travel Leads to reduction of 2,500 PM Peak Hour Trips Transit Carpool Vanpool Bicycling and walking New bus service added to expansion of transit center leads to increase of 30 PM peak hour transit trips
PM Peak Hour VMT to Annual VMT Convert SOV PM peak hour VMT to Annual VMT K factor: 0.0909 Effective days per year: 300 days Heavy vehicle percentage: 2% Convert Alternative Mode PM peak hour VMT to Annual VMT PM peak hours last per day: 5 hours Effective days per year: 300 days Trip length: 5 miles/trip
Total Annual VMT Reduction
CO 2 Calculation 2
CO 2 Emissions Calculation Flow Chart 2
CO 2 Calculation Results 2
Conclusions Increased development in City Center results in more origins and destinations at the City Center; therefore the local VMT increases Trips from outside of the City Center decrease accordingly, which results in VMT decreases for the areas outside of the City Overall, regional VMT decreases slightly from both reduced travel demand and mode shift
Conclusions continued The build Scenario improves transportation efficiency for the surrounding region by concentrating jobs and homes in a high density urban center and reducing the need for residents to travel to neighboring cities for work, shopping, and other needs, which would thereby reduce future total VMT and the CO 2 emissions in the region compared to the No Build Scenario. The analysis demonstrates the VMT reduction benefits of encouraging transit trips by creating a transit oriented development.
Other Applications GHG impacts from delay reductions Intersection improvements (signals, roundabouts, interchanges) Arterial improvements (road diets, access management, new lanes) Does the delay reduction attract traffic in addition to reducing delay increasing demand and VMT? GHG impacts from corridor improvements VMT reduced by shorter more direct route VMT increased because of induced demand Results are usually regional
Acknowledgments City of Lynnwood Staff Jeff Elekes, Deputy Public Works Director David Mach, Project Manager Sandra Howe, Project Manager David Kleitsch, Economic Development Director
References Emission Facts, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EAP 420 f 05 003), February 2005
Author s information Victor L. Salemann, Sr. Associate David Evans and Associates 415-118th Avenue SE Bellevue, WA 98005 425.586.9761 voice vls@deainc.com Min Luo, Traffic Engineer David Evans and Associates 415-118th Avenue SE Bellevue, WA 98005 425.586.9764 voice mxlu@deainc.com