Climat e Change Adaptation in London Andy Deacon GLA Environment Team Warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers Summer 2050 s (high emissions) +3ºC - 30-40% rainfall Winter 2050 s (high emissions) +1.5-2 ºC + 25-30% rainfall
TEMPERATURE RISE by the 2080s (Medium-High Emissions scenario) winter summer C Source : Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
CHANGE IN NUMBER OF DAYS 2080s climate WITH DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE > 36 C Recent climate Predicted to increase by a factor of 10 across most of the UK Source : Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research How is London Vulnerable to Climate Change? Climate change will mean that London will experience : Warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers More frequent and more intense extreme events (heatwaves, tidal surges, heavy rain, windstorms) Continuing sea level rise This means that London is vulnerable to: Flooding Water resources Overheating Subsidence and heave Wind storms Global climate events All require adaptation to manage the long-term average changes and emergency planning to manage extreme situations
Heat European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) C observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) 2003 2040s 2060s
Heat in London Issues London has experienced high temperatures that have impacted upon public health and the economy (example : August 2003 heatwave) London will experience progressively warmer summers and an increased frequency and intensity of very hot weather periods Building regulations drive to keep buildings warm in winter, not cool in summer There is no criterion for overheating in homes, workplaces, public buildings or public transport The policy direction should be to reduce summer excess deaths and avoid air conditioning Keeping Cool 1 managing summer solar gain through passive design Orientation / Profile External shading High albedo Insulation and air tightness Exposed internal thermal mass 2 energy efficient cooling Good natural ventilation Carbon efficient mixed mode ventilation Carbon efficient active ventilation (air conditioning in emergencies for vulnerable people)
Urban Heat Island actions Research into London s Urban Heat Island effect Predicted temperature maps for 2020 s, 2050 s and 2080 s Define and rank socioeconomic factors that influence vulnerability to overheating Case studies from other parts of the world
UHI management options Cool Roofs Urban Greening and Green Roofs Cool materials Sky view factor Heatwave protection and preparedness Manage waste heat Flooding
Tidal Fluvial Surface Sewer (Groundwater) Four flood sources Frequently experience flooding from more than one source Flood Risk Management Managing Probability build higher defences Maintain and inspect them regularly Improve permeability and drainage Managing Consequence Locate vulnerable land uses away from high flood risk areas Design remaining development to be flood resilient Good warning detection Strong Emergency Planning Raise public awareness!!
Planning for Flood Risk Management in the Thames Estuary Continued THE STUDY protection AREA SHOWING of 1.25 million AREA people AT and 80bn RISK property FROM TIDAL value FLOODING in flood risk area ANGLIAN REGION THAMES REGION Stratford/Royals Greenwich Peninsula Lewisham BARKING BARRIER Barking/Havering Woolwich/Erith Grays Thurrock Tilbury CANVEY ISLAND FOBBING HORSE BARRIER Basildon BENFLEET BARRIER SHOEBURYNESS Shellhaven/Canvey Island EAST HAVEN BARRIER Isle Of Grain SHEERNESS THAMES BARRIER Kent/Thameside Gravesend Medway Sheerness/Sheppy DARTFORD BARRIER TEDDINGTON WEIR (TIDAL LIMIT) SOUTHERN REGION KEY GLA Boundary Downstream Limit of Strategy EA Regional Boundary 5m Contour Zone Of Change
Water Resources Water Resources Issue : Climate change will increase demand and reduce availability of water We need to identify how much demand will increase by and how much supply may be reduced by Consider a water hierarchy Reducing the wastage of water Reducing the amount we use (improve efficiency) Reuse and recycle water Options Change public perception and behaviour Londonwide metering and incentivising tariffs Encourage building regs to set limit on water use Compulsory water harvesting
Awareness The current practice of Water Efficiency Awareness follows the process called the Hydro- Illogical Cycle. Whereby we don t maintain what we ve learnt. - Not prepared for the next drought. - Still wasting water the same way year after year. - Location of emergency services in Carlisle (flooding) (from I.R. Tannehill, Drought: Its Causes and Effects, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 1947) Partnership and Strategy
London Climate Change Partnership London s Warming report (Oct 2002) Transport research (September 2005) Checklist for Development (November 2005) Climate Impacts on Transport Case studies: 1.Tidal and river flooding in Thames Gateway 2.Flash flooding of Underground, railway stations and roads 3.Damage to rail and road infrastructure in hot weather 4.Passenger comfort on the Underground
Incorporating Adaptation into New Development Location Site layout Buildings structure, envelope, materials Ventilation and cooling Drainage Water Outdoor space Connectivity Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons for London Focus on Adaptation for: Flooding High Temperatures Limited Water Resources Delivers 12 Recommendations Target Audiences: - Policy & decision-makers - LCCP Stakeholders - Mayor of London - Greater London Authority - Govt. Departments - Developers - Utilities & Regulators
Financial and economic issues Climate change will have positive and negative effects on all businesses. Research into the effects on London s businesses Identify opportunities to routinely integrate climate change into their business planning Stern Review investigating the economics of climate change globally Mayor s Adaptation Strategy Ensure that climate change does not increase social inequality Ensure that new development and infrastructure is located, designed and constructed for the climate change it will experience over its design life Ensure that appropriate emergency planning is in place to respond to extreme climatic events Ensure that London s economy is prepared for the challenges and opportunities presented by climate change Ensure that London s growth reduces London s vulnerability to climate change Encourage businesses to integrate climate change into their business planning To promote adaptation of the natural environment Position London as an international role model in adapting to climate change
Emissions Reduction Andy Deacon GLA Environment Team Emissions Map Total CO 2 (2003)
CO2 targets announced in draft London Plan Reduction in Emissions 2010 2015 2020 2025 2050 aspiration 0% -10% -20% 15% 20% -30% 25% -40% 30% -50% -60% -70% 60% Congestion Charge Banding TfL investigating proposals to amend the Congestion Charging scheme so that it discourages the use of cars producing high levels of carbon emissions Discounts for cars with low CO 2 emissions Most other cars would continue driving in the zone at the present rate of 8 per day Those vehicles with very high CO 2 emissions - such as those in current Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) band G - which produce over 226g/km of CO 2 emissions, could be charged at a higher rate, around 25
Current Action: Mitigation Review of Mayoral Powers Climate change Duty Statutory Climate Change & Energy and CC Adaptation Strategies Land Use Planning Increasing energy efficiency Promoting renewables Zero Carbon Development project. Energy Action Areas Transport Travel Demand Management Congestion Charging and Low Emission Zone Improved carbon efficiency of bus fleet Increase in cycling and walking Promotion and persuasion - Climate Change Awareness campaign and wider environmental awareness raising LCCA & Partnerships showing by doing Partnership with other world cities Clinton Climate Initiative/Large Cities Climate Large Leadership Group Example: Thermal efficiency Measure Average cost ( ) CO 2 per annum (tpa) Payback period (years) Quick wins (consumers can do themselves) Hot water tank insulation Radiator Panels Draught-stripping 10 20 45 0.11 0.03 0.08 <1 4 3 Numbers to be confirmed Loft insulation (any) 224 1.24 1 Worthwhile improvements (Typically need a builder. Affordable investment, short term return) Full heating control package Loft insulation (additional) Cavity Wall Insulation 198 238 242 0.29 0.33 0.43 4 4 4 Floor insulation 84 0.17 3 Substantial investments (more expensive and/or disruptive) Replacement condensing boiler Solid Wall Insulation (ext) 693 808 0.40 0.91 10 5 Solid Wall Insulation (int) 1278 0.98 8 Secondary Glazing 600 0.11 30* Double glazing 4000 0.23 95* Appliances N/A 0.27 N/A Non infrastructure (not disruptive or expensive) Lighting Usage transparency 85 N/A 0.19 0.15 <1 N/A Public awareness * Expected lifetime of product is only 20 years NOTE: Average cost is based on London housing profile. Costs vary significantly according to size and structure of dwelling Source: Domestic Energy Primer (EST); TfL Policy Unit analysis N/A 0.13 N/A
Partnership Approach London Energy Partnership London Hydrogen Partnership London Climate Change Partnership London Climate Change Agency Large Cities Climate Leadership Group Clinton Climate Initiative