Energy in the 21st Century John S. MacDonald February 25, 2010
Energy Issues Security - Dependence Environmental Concerns on Foreign Energy Climate Change Demand and Supply
Demand and Supply - A key Question When will the Demand for Energy exceed the gy Conventional Supply?
Optimistic Supply Case Primary Energy Su upply [ExaJ Joules/Yr] Sources: International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Information Agency (EIA) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) Nuclear Hydro Biomass Coal Gas Oil Year
Pessimistic Supply Case Primary Energy Su upply [ExaJ Joules/Yr] Sources: International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Information Agency (EIA) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Hydro Nuclear Biomass Coal Gas Oil Year
Filling the Gap upply [ExaJ Joules/Yr] Primary Energy S Sources: International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Information Agency (EIA) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Hydro Nuclear Biomass Coal Gas What will fill the Gap?? Oil Year
Filling the Gap - 2 Solutions Increased use of Nuclear Energy Renewable Energy Sources Solar Wind Tidal Biofuel derived from biomass Geothermal Wave Small Hydro (Run of River) Large Hydro
Properties of Renewable Energy Secure A local energy source Environmentally Benign Inexhaustible But it is either intermittent or strongly location dependent or both
WBGU s World Energy Vision to 2100 y [EJ/Y] gy Suppl Prim mary Ener 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 WBGU: German Advisory Council on Global Change Geothermal Other REs Solar heat Solar electricity Wind Biomass adv 400 Biomass trad Hydro-PW Nuclear PW 200 Gas Coal 0 Oil 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 2060 2070 208 YEAR
Solar Energy: Area Requirements (250 km) 2 of Algerian desert covered with 15% efficient solar cells could provide electricity to the ENTIRE HUMAN POPULATION The Sun provides the Earth with over 6,000 times as much energy as humans consume. Source: German Aerospace Centre (DLR)
Renewable Energy Infrastructure Renewable Energy Sources are either intermittent or strongly gylocation dependent. How can we create a system that can generate FIRM renewable power anywhere? 11
Renewable Energy System Structure 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Big Solar Hydro Small Blending Intermittent Wind and Wind Solar in Minnesota (example) Firm Hydro Renewable Renewable Sources Sources Biomass Geothermal Wave Tidal Large Scale Storage GRID CONTROL SYSTEM LOAD Fossil Fuel & Nuclear Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Solar Wind
Environmental Considerations Global Climate Change
Muana Loa Data - Mean CO 2 Concentration The Keeling Curve Mean CO 2 Concentration in the Atmosphere I thi th i Is this anthropogenic or part of the natural cycle of warming and cooling?
A Changing Climate: Anthropogenic Forcing Warming of the climate system is unequivocal - IPCC Evident from observations of: Increases in average air and ocean temperatures Widespread melting of snow and ice Rising global average sea level 11 of the 12 years from 1995 to 2006 rank among the 12 warmest years since 1850 Global Global Land Global Ocean Temperature e anomaly ( C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 Temperature anomaly ( C) 1.0 05 0.5 0.0 Temperature anomaly ( C) 1.0 05 0.5 0.0 1900 1950 2000 1900 1950 2000 1900 1950 2000 models using only natural forcings observations models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Historic CO 2 (Antarctic Ice Core Data) 1958-2008
Historic CO 2 & CH 4 Jim Hansen, NASA
Arctic Changes (September Coverage) 1982 24 Years Later (2006) www.usgcrp.gov
2007-2009 Sea ice conditions in context September Sea Ice Extent 1979-2009 September 2009 5.10 million km 2 September 2008 4.67 million km 2 September 2007 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 8 2009 4.28 million km 2
Sea Ice February 1, 2010 20
Arctic Sea Ice Extent Spring 2009 Sep 30/08 1979-2000 Avg. Apr 19/09 1979-2000 Avg.
Helheim Glacier - East Greenland 2005 (June 19) 2001 2003
Greenland Ice Loss 3 Ice Mass s (km 3 ) GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) Between 2002 and 2008 Greenland lost ~ 1,200 cubic kilometers of ice
The Antarctic Situation
Ice Shelves Larsen B Wilkins Ross Ice Shelf
Disintegration of the Larsen B Ice Shelf Jan. Jan 31 31, 2002 Feb Feb. 17 17, 2002 M Mar. 5, 2002 Feb.5 23, 2002 Glacier Images: NASA MODIS What happened? A 3250 km2 Antarctic ice shelf about the size of the state of Rhode Island disintegrated in 35 days. The resulting icebergs drifted out into the Southern Ocean The glaciers trapped behind the ice shelf for about 12 12,000 000 years can now flow into the sea. The conditions leading to the breakup resulted from an unusually ll warm summer in i September 2001 to January 2002.
Antarctic Mass Loss To infer the ice sheet's mass, ice flowing out of Antarctica's glacial drainage basins was measured using SAR interferometry over 85 percent of its coastline. Spacecraft employed: ERS - 1 (European Space Agency Radarsat - 1 (Canada) Advanced Land Observer (Japan) Rate of Antarctic ice mass loss: 1996-112 billion metric tonnes per year 2006-196 billion metric tonnes per year Antarctic ice loss between 1996 and 2006, overlaid on a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) mosaic image of Antarctica. The colors indicate the speed of the ice loss. Purple/red is fast. Green is slow. (Credit: NASA)
Sea Ice January 9, 2010 28
Antarctic and Arctic Ice Coverage 29
Global Mean Sea Level 30
Himalayan Glaciers
West Rongbuk Glacier Mt. Everest The Rongbuk glacier is the largest glacier on the north slopes of Mt. Everest.
Prosperity, Energy & Climate Change PROSPERITY ENERGY A policy Dilemma CLIMATE CHANGE 33
The Pasterze Glacier The Helm Glacier The Athabaska The Muir Glacier (Austria) (Near Whistler) (Alaska) 1941 1929 1875 1917 Courtesy Gov t of BC Archives 2002 2004 2004 2005 Coutesy Gordon McBean Courtesy David Suzuki Foundation